Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 1

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Alabama	1	81.80%	11.5%
2	Ohio State	2	65.70%	-1.8%
3	Clemson	4	34.43%	13.5%
4	Wisconsin	8	28.18%	7.0%
5	Oklahoma	3	24.57%	-5.0%
6	Stanford	10	23.86%	11.9%
7	LSU	7	23.51%	2.6%
8	Penn State	9	22.87%	3.8%
9	Auburn	6	15.18%	-5.5%
10	Washington	12	12.83%	-5.5%
11	Florida State	5	12.55%	-23.3%
12	USC	11	11.78%	-3.2%
13	Notre Dame	14	11.19%	3.3%
14	Michigan	13	9.07%	2.6%
15	Oklahoma State	15	3.97%	1.4%
16	Georgia	16	3.86%	0.1%
17	Oregon	19	2.88%	1.3%
18	Miami (FL)	22	1.78%	-6.4%
19	Louisville	18	1.30%	-1.8%
20	Washington State	27	1.20%	-0.2%
21	TCU	17	0.98%	-0.6%
22	UCLA	28	0.90%	0.3%
23	Virginia Tech	26	0.90%	0.0%
24	Mississippi State	23	0.77%	0.5%
25	Tennessee	24	0.59%	0.0%
26	Kansas State	25	0.44%	0.0%
27	Boise State	45	0.31%	0.0%
28	Northwestern	36	0.30%	-0.5%
29	Colorado	35	0.23%	0.2%
30	Memphis	50	0.22%	-0.5%
31	South Carolina	30	0.21%	0.1%
32	Iowa	37	0.20%	0.1%
33	Houston	49	0.20%	-0.1%
34	Toledo	62	0.14%	-0.3%
35	Arkansas	32	0.13%	-0.1%
36	Texas A&M	20	0.12%	-0.9%
37	Florida	21	0.10%	-2.2%
38	Michigan State	43	0.09%	0.0%
39	Nebraska	42	0.09%	0.0%
40	Central Florida	53	0.08%	0.1%
41	Vanderbilt	41	0.05%	0.0%
42	Duke	40	0.05%	0.0%
43	North Carolina State	29	0.05%	-1.1%
44	Utah	44	0.05%	0.0%
45	Texas Tech	38	0.04%	0.0%
46	South Florida	54	0.04%	-0.1%
47	Maryland	61	0.03%	0.0%
48	Georgia Tech	31	0.03%	-0.2%
49	Arizona	51	0.02%	0.0%
50	Kentucky	48	0.01%	-0.1%
51	Army	68	0.01%	0.0%
52	Western Kentucky	75	0.01%	-0.1%
53	San Diego State	66	0.01%	0.0%
54	North Carolina	39	0.01%	-0.3%
55	Wake Forest	56	0.01%	0.0%
56	California	58	0.01%	0.0%
57	Missouri	52	0.01%	0.0%
58	Texas	34	0.01%	-0.4%
59	Syracuse	57	0.00%	0.0%
60	Pitt	47	0.00%	-0.1%
61	Indiana	59	0.00%	0.0%
62	Arizona State	63	0.00%	0.0%
63	Minnesota	71	0.00%	0.0%
64	West Virginia	46	0.00%	0.0%
65	Iowa State	64	0.00%	0.0%
66	Louisiana Tech	83	0.00%	0.0%
67	Ohio	78	0.00%	0.0%
68	Virginia	73	0.00%	0.0%
69	UTSA	96	0.00%	0.0%
70	Boston College	74	0.00%	0.0%
71	UAB	127	0.00%	0.0%
72	Illinois	87	0.00%	0.0%
73	Kansas	101	0.00%	0.0%
74	Baylor	55	0.00%	-0.2%
75	Oregon State	82	0.00%	0.0%
76	Rutgers	89	0.00%	0.0%
77	Purdue	86	0.00%	0.0%
78	Navy	67	0.00%	0.0%
79	Cincinnati	93	0.00%	0.0%
80	Old Dominion	97	0.00%	0.0%
81	Marshall	95	0.00%	0.0%
82	Air Force	72	0.00%	0.0%
83	Central Michigan	114	0.00%	0.0%
84	New Mexico	104	0.00%	0.0%
85	UConn	119	0.00%	0.0%
86	Eastern Michigan	99	0.00%	0.0%
87	Fresno State	91	0.00%	0.0%
88	Hawaii	103	0.00%	0.0%
89	Idaho	115	0.00%	0.0%
90	Louisiana-Lafayette	113	0.00%	0.0%
91	North Texas	98	0.00%	0.0%
92	SMU	76	0.00%	0.0%
93	Texas State	130	0.00%	0.0%
94	Tulane	85	0.00%	0.0%

1. Week 1 was relatively tame.  As a result, there aren't too many surprises in the playoff odds.  Alabama, Clemson, and Stanford see the biggest increases, the first because they passed their biggest test of the year and the other two because they walloped their already overmatched opponents.  Florida State drops to a still decent 11th, but this doesn't account for the loss of Deondre Francois.  In reality, the Noles should probably be 3-5 spots lower as their SOS isn't quite good enough to guarantee a spot should they win out.  Miami wasn't impressive in their debut, but I'm surprised that dropped them this far (I guess a 10-spot drop in FPI doesn't help).  And finally, the much beloved Wolfpack of NC State find themselves on life support after a supremely weird loss to South Carolina.

2. We say goodbye to a large number of group of five teams this week.  BYU, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Appalachian State, Troy, Colorado State, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee, Ball State, Miami (OH), Wyoming, Southern Miss, Temple, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Georgia Southern, San Jose State, Nevada, Georgia State, Akron, Buffalo, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Kent State, Louisiana-Monroe, UNLV, New Mexico State, Rice, South Alabama, UTEP, Charlotte, Utah State, and Massachusetts are all officially eliminated from playoff contention.  I also belatedly removed Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina because of self-imposed exile and FBS transition, respectively.

3. The ACC takes a big hit with three of their top five contenders dropping significantly.  And the top three teams in the Sun Belt all lost, making their already incredibly long shot now impossibly long. 

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
B10	1.265
SEC	1.263
P12	0.538
ACC	0.511
B12	0.300
IND	0.112
MWC	0.006
AMER	0.005
MAC	0.001
CUSA	0.000
SB	0.000

Week 2 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Ohio State	Oklahoma	70.1%	0.123
Clemson	Auburn	62.5%	0.075
USC	Stanford	46.8%	0.058
Notre Dame	Georgia	58.1%	0.023
Penn State	Pitt	90.2%	0.007
Washington State	Boise State	71.6%	0.003
Oregon	Nebraska	76.1%	0.003
Alabama	Fresno State	99.2%	0.002
Arkansas	TCU	41.6%	0.002
North Carolina	Louisville	36.3%	0.002

One of my favorite weeks of the year features an amazing quartet of games at the top.  On one hand, it's too bad all of these games kick off in the same two-hour window.  But on the other hand, it should be absolutely crazy.  In other news, I'm excited to see the Arkansas-TCU rematch, and a late night battle on the Palouse should be fun.