| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 79.82% | -2.0% |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 3 | 43.19% | 18.6% |
| 3 | Clemson | 4 | 40.57% | 6.1% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 2 | 39.64% | -26.1% |
| 5 | Penn State | 6 | 25.88% | 3.0% |
| 6 | USC | 10 | 25.15% | 13.4% |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 11 | 24.38% | -3.8% |
| 8 | LSU | 7 | 21.16% | -2.4% |
| 9 | Florida State | 5 | 18.40% | 5.9% |
| 10 | Washington | 9 | 17.83% | 5.0% |
| 11 | Michigan | 14 | 10.50% | 1.4% |
| 12 | Georgia | 16 | 10.07% | 6.2% |
| 13 | Stanford | 12 | 7.33% | -16.5% |
| 14 | Auburn | 8 | 5.97% | -9.2% |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | 13 | 4.52% | 0.5% |
| 16 | Oregon | 21 | 3.13% | 0.2% |
| 17 | Notre Dame | 17 | 2.65% | -8.5% |
| 18 | Mississippi State | 18 | 2.64% | 1.9% |
| 19 | TCU | 15 | 2.57% | 1.6% |
| 20 | Louisville | 19 | 2.47% | 1.2% |
| 21 | Miami (FL) | 22 | 2.30% | 0.5% |
| 22 | South Carolina | 27 | 1.32% | 1.1% |
| 23 | UCLA | 26 | 1.14% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Houston | 44 | 1.00% | 0.8% |
| 25 | Washington State | 29 | 0.95% | -0.3% |
| 26 | Tennessee | 25 | 0.86% | 0.3% |
| 27 | Virginia Tech | 28 | 0.72% | -0.2% |
| 28 | Memphis | 51 | 0.50% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Duke | 32 | 0.47% | 0.4% |
| 30 | Kansas State | 20 | 0.42% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Toledo | 56 | 0.40% | 0.3% |
| 32 | Iowa | 35 | 0.34% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Colorado | 34 | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Maryland | 47 | 0.21% | 0.2% |
| 35 | Michigan State | 39 | 0.18% | 0.1% |
| 36 | Florida | 24 | 0.17% | 0.1% |
| 37 | Minnesota | 49 | 0.14% | 0.1% |
| 38 | Utah | 40 | 0.13% | 0.1% |
| 39 | South Florida | 55 | 0.10% | 0.1% |
| 40 | San Diego State | 57 | 0.10% | 0.1% |
| 41 | Georgia Tech | 30 | 0.10% | 0.1% |
| 42 | Central Florida | 54 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Wake Forest | 46 | 0.06% | 0.1% |
| 44 | North Carolina State | 31 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Vanderbilt | 48 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Texas | 23 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Indiana | 53 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Texas Tech | 38 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Navy | 66 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Kentucky | 59 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Northwestern | 50 | 0.02% | -0.3% |
| 52 | Nebraska | 41 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 53 | Texas A&M | 33 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 54 | Air Force | 74 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 55 | UTSA | 84 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Army | 71 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 57 | California | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Arkansas | 42 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 59 | West Virginia | 36 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Pitt | 52 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Illinois | 81 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Arizona | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Missouri | 62 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | SMU | 73 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Syracuse | 67 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Arizona State | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Iowa State | 60 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Virginia | 77 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Boston College | 82 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 70 | UAB | 125 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Kansas | 110 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Purdue | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 73 | North Carolina | 45 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Baylor | 64 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Oregon State | 93 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Rutgers | 94 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Old Dominion | 92 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Central Michigan | 100 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 79 | UConn | 119 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Eastern Michigan | 97 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Another week of relative normalcy leaves me with few things to comment on. Except for the big blinking oddity of a one-loss Ohio State team being in fourth place. Yes, there is a very specific precedent for this, as the Buckeyes lost in week two in 2014 and went on to win the title, but my model isn't boosting their chances because that happened. Rather, it's a combination of two things leading them to this surprisingly lofty rank. First, they are still #2 in the aggregate computer rankings, just ahead of Oklahoma and three points clear of #4 Clemson. This means they are heavy favorites in all of their remaining games and have roughly even odds of going 2-0 against Penn State and Michigan. Second, thanks to most of their opponents having good starts to the season, their SOS projection has quickly increased from .561 (decent) to .588 (really good), which would virtually guarantee them a berth in the playoff should they win out. It's entirely possible that Buckeyes are a sheep in wolf's clothing, but doubt them at your own peril.
2. Another set of teams were eliminated from contention. Say good night to Boise State, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Cincinnati, Marshall, New Mexico, Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Texas State, and Tulane. Boise represented the best chance for the group of five to break through, but that was still less than a one percent chance, so these eliminations aren't that impactful on the overall race.
3. Ohio State may still be in the thick of the playoff race, but their loss does remove some of the margin of error for the Big Ten. If Ohio State wins out, they'll have to beat Penn State, Michigan, and (probably) Wisconsin, which will make it harder for the conference to place two teams in the playoff. If a conference finally gets two teams in, it will most likely be the SEC.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.221 |
| B10 | 1.013 |
| ACC | 0.651 |
| P12 | 0.559 |
| B12 | 0.508 |
| IND | 0.027 |
| AMER | 0.017 |
| MAC | 0.004 |
| MWC | 0.000 |
| CUSA | 0.000 |
4. Now that we've had a couple of important conference games, let's bust out the conference race grid. Since USC passed it's big early-season conference test, it now has the best odds of reaching its title game. Similarly, South Carolina creeps up to second in the SEC East after collecting a win on the road. And the CUSA is totally up for grabs for the first time in its current iteration.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 47.2% | Florida State | 36.2% | |
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 36.3% | Virginia Tech | 22.0% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 52.2% | South Florida | 40.5% | |
| AMEW | Memphis | 41.9% | Houston | 35.8% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 67.6% | Penn State | 24.4% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 85.6% | Nebraska | 3.9% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 86.5% | Oklahoma State | 46.7% | |
| CUSAE | Western Kentucky | 37.5% | Middle Tennessee | 30.2% | |
| CUSAW | UTSA | 38.4% | Southern Miss | 30.8% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 44.2% | Miami (OH) | 31.3% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 56.0% | Western Michigan | 25.0% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 76.6% | Fresno State | 10.8% | |
| MWCM | Boise State | 49.5% | Colorado State | 30.5% | |
| P12N | Washington | 54.3% | Stanford | 28.5% | |
| P12S | USC | 88.5% | UCLA | 5.2% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 39.7% | South Carolina | 24.9% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 69.3% | Auburn | 14.5% | |
| SUN | Appalachian State | 53.0% | Arkansas State | 20.4% |
Week 3 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Louisville | Clemson | 31.9% | 0.049 |
| Mississippi State | LSU | 37.8% | 0.032 |
| USC | Texas | 75.0% | 0.021 |
| BYU | Wisconsin | 12.0% | 0.010 |
| San Diego State | Stanford | 16.8% | 0.007 |
| Alabama | Colorado State | 97.5% | 0.007 |
| Ohio State | Army | 97.3% | 0.005 |
| Memphis | UCLA | 37.1% | 0.005 |
| Pitt | Oklahoma State | 20.1% | 0.003 |
| Michigan | Air Force | 92.2% | 0.003 |
Week 3 was already looking like one of the weakest of the year with respect to playoff impact, but then Irma forced the re-scheduling of FSU-Miami, and it looks even worse. Still, there are enough interesting home underdogs to make for what might be the first relatively crazy week of the year. One of my personal faves features Memphis getting it's chance at home against UCLA it what might represent the group of five's best chance to make some noise.
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