| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 99.25% | -0.3% |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 92.66% | 3.0% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 3 | 81.49% | 13.3% |
| 4 | Michigan | 2 | 51.71% | 9.0% |
| 5 | Washington | 6 | 27.06% | 3.5% |
| 6 | Western Michigan | 23 | 12.39% | -0.2% |
| 7 | Colorado | 13 | 8.75% | 6.5% |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 8 | 7.82% | 4.6% |
| 9 | Penn State | 14 | 7.12% | 3.9% |
| 10 | Wisconsin | 12 | 6.41% | 2.6% |
| 11 | Louisville | 5 | 1.75% | -38.4% |
| 12 | Nebraska | 32 | 1.54% | 1.0% |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | 19 | 1.07% | 0.8% |
| 14 | West Virginia | 28 | 0.74% | -8.9% |
| 15 | Florida | 18 | 0.26% | 0.2% |
1. A relatively quiet Week 12 has just one major victim: Louisville. What's interesting about their fall is that the top teams benefit more than the cream of the two-loss crop. The reason for this is the same as it was earlier in the season: My model likes the current one-loss teams better as two-loss teams than the current two-loss teams. Clemson, Ohio State, and Michigan would have far stronger SOS metrics than anyone else in that group, so a second loss may not hurt any of them as much as you might think. Still, some of the two-loss teams did improve their standings, especially those (Colorado and Oklahoma) who passed strong tests. Yes, I'll fix the WMU problem next year, but I'm leaving it for now, because it's funny.
2. Only two eliminations this week: Utah and Washington State. Clearly I jinxed the Cougs when I wrote a section on them last week. Sorry.
3. All season it's looked like there would be room for a conference to send two teams to the playoff; we just weren't sure if it would be the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten. After 12 weeks of play, the first non-conference champ playoff berth is the Big Ten's to lose.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| B10 | 1.483 |
| SEC | 0.995 |
| ACC | 0.944 |
| P12 | 0.358 |
| MAC | 0.124 |
| B12 | 0.096 |
4. Most conferences and divisions are down to one or two contenders. The main exception is of course, Ohio State, which is looking like a strong playoff contender in spite of the long odds to win the division. In three instances (Bedlam, Apple Cup, and WMU-Toledo), we have a game that will decide a division/conference for the victor, so that's fun.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 100.0% | |||
| ACCC | Virginia Tech | 90.3% | North Carolina | 8.6% | |
| AMEE | Temple | 93.3% | South Florida | 6.7% | |
| AMEW | Navy | 100.0% | |||
| B10E | Penn State | 48.5% | Michigan | 42.6% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 88.5% | Nebraska | 7.3% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 72.4% | Oklahoma State | 27.6% | |
| CUSAE | Western Kentucky | 92.1% | Old Dominion | 8.0% | |
| CUSAW | Louisiana Tech | 100.0% | |||
| MACE | Ohio | 85.0% | Miami (OH) | 15.0% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 75.3% | Toledo | 24.7% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 100.0% | |||
| MWCM | Wyoming | 61.4% | Boise State | 35.4% | |
| P12N | Washington | 65.9% | Washington State | 34.1% | |
| P12S | Colorado | 80.5% | USC | 19.5% | |
| SECE | Florida | 100.0% | |||
| SECW | Alabama | 100.0% | |||
| SUN | Arkansas State | 79.6% | Appalachian State | 12.4% |
Week 13 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Ohio State | Michigan | 57.3% | 0.317 |
| Alabama | Auburn | 86.0% | 0.046 |
| Washington State | Washington | 34.9% | 0.046 |
| Colorado | Utah | 79.6% | 0.017 |
| Clemson | South Carolina | 96.8% | 0.015 |
| Penn State | Michigan State | 84.7% | 0.010 |
| Western Michigan | Toledo | 75.3% | 0.010 |
| Iowa | Nebraska | 59.9% | 0.009 |
| Wisconsin | Minnesota | 86.1% | 0.008 |
| Iowa State | West Virginia | 29.2% | 0.002 |
The Ohio State-Michigan game is officially the most important game of the past two years, surpassing last year's Big Ten title game. The next three games on this list are all good and in different time slots than all the other games. So not only is this a great weekend, but it is also set up optimally for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy.
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