With news that a 12-team playoff could happen as soon as 2024, this exercise is nearing its completion. But until that time we beat on, spreadsheets against the current, borne ceaselessly into debugging my R code. Here are the playoff odds that were calculated before the action of Week 0 and last two nights that I was too lazy to post until now:
A couple brief remarks:
1. Yep, the same teams dominate the top that always do. A clear top three that are seven points clear of the field in the computers and a post-hype Clemson that could be dreadfully competent make up the top four. While this certainly could indicate a very boring playoff race, the top ten games of the year (in terms of playoff odds at stake) show that each of these teams faces at least some resistance from their moderately strong schedules. And do recall that two of last year's playoff participants were outside the top 20 in initial playoff odds. So chaos, as muted as its been over the last eight years, is still possible.
2. That said, I would tend to take the under on Clemson's number above, which means that the fourth playoff spot may be more up for grabs than you might think. And there are enough interesting squads in the space below the top four to suggest that something approaching "fun" could happen with the race in November. This might not quite equate to "chaos," but it does suggest that something more compelling than you might expect could come to pass.
3. The alternate view one could take based on these initial playoff odds is to simply ignore the playoff and enjoy the broader scope of what college football has to offer. Go see your local D-III team. Pick a week to watch the Mountain West and CUSA action on CBS Sports Network for an entire Saturday. Follow Oregon State around like they're the Grateful Dead. Sure, I'm going to watch every stupid Alabama team until my eyes bleed but that doesn't mean you have to. Allow these words to liberate you from your burden.
4. And if nothing else, it's an NC State hype year. We only get one of these every five years or so. Cherish it.
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