Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 1

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	CFP Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	75.31%	3.9%
2	Alabama	1	62.01%	-1.8%
3	LSU	3	38.32%	15.8%
4	Oklahoma	6	35.47%	-11.6%
5	Penn State	5	31.49%	19.3%
6	Georgia	4	29.83%	0.6%
7	Washington	11	20.26%	5.8%
8	Michigan	7	20.13%	-21.2%
9	Ohio State	8	18.64%	-8.0%
10	Notre Dame	10	16.69%	2.0%
11	Wisconsin	14	9.43%	7.8%
12	Utah	16	8.21%	3.8%
13	Florida	13	5.76%	-2.0%
14	Auburn	9	5.04%	1.5%
15	Washington State	18	2.89%	2.1%
16	Texas	17	2.70%	1.9%
17	Michigan State	22	2.06%	-2.6%
18	Oregon	15	2.00%	-9.1%
19	Iowa	21	1.84%	0.0%
20	Mississippi State	19	1.59%	-2.0%
21	Texas A&M	12	1.52%	0.2%
22	North Carolina State	33	1.18%	0.6%
23	Oklahoma State	25	1.02%	0.2%
24	Virginia	26	0.89%	0.7%
25	Syracuse	37	0.76%	0.1%
26	Baylor	34	0.63%	0.2%
27	Boise State	24	0.47%	0.3%
28	Miami (FL)	23	0.43%	-1.1%
29	Stanford	28	0.43%	-0.1%
30	Kentucky	32	0.41%	0.3%
31	USC	27	0.39%	-0.1%
32	Minnesota	36	0.35%	-0.9%
33	Maryland	35	0.29%	0.3%
34	Iowa State	39	0.23%	-0.5%
35	Central Florida	20	0.20%	0.1%
36	Florida State	30	0.19%	-3.2%
37	Wake Forest	56	0.14%	0.1%
38	Texas Tech	40	0.13%	0.1%
39	Arizona State	41	0.12%	-0.1%
40	North Carolina	49	0.11%	0.1%
41	Boston College	52	0.11%	0.1%
42	Nebraska	45	0.09%	-0.8%
43	Kansas State	48	0.04%	0.0%
44	Memphis	44	0.04%	0.0%
45	Virginia Tech	42	0.04%	-0.9%
46	TCU	51	0.02%	-0.5%
47	Indiana	53	0.02%	-0.1%
48	Appalachian State	50	0.02%	0.0%
49	Cincinnati	38	0.02%	0.0%
50	Air Force	57	0.01%	0.0%
51	Colorado	55	0.01%	0.0%
52	Marshall	73	0.00%	0.0%
53	California	58	0.00%	0.0%
54	Pitt	65	0.00%	-0.1%
55	West Virginia	62	0.00%	0.0%
56	Western Michigan	66	0.00%	0.0%
57	UCLA	43	0.00%	-0.3%
58	Vanderbilt	59	0.00%	0.0%
59	Illinois	69	0.00%	0.0%
60	Ohio	80	0.00%	0.0%
61	Wyoming	74	0.00%	0.0%
62	Duke	71	0.00%	0.0%
63	North Texas	88	0.00%	0.0%
64	Army	84	0.00%	0.0%
65	Georgia State	101	0.00%	0.0%
66	Troy	87	0.00%	0.0%
67	Northern Illinois	83	0.00%	0.0%
68	SMU	78	0.00%	0.0%
69	Arkansas	77	0.00%	0.0%
70	Rutgers	89	0.00%	0.0%
71	Kansas	107	0.00%	0.0%
72	Tennessee	47	0.00%	-0.5%
73	South Carolina	31	0.00%	-0.1%
74	Northwestern	54	0.00%	0.0%
75	Ole Miss	46	0.00%	0.0%
76	Arizona	64	0.00%	0.0%
77	Purdue	61	0.00%	0.0%
78	Louisville	75	0.00%	0.0%
79	Georgia Tech	82	0.00%	0.0%
80	Oregon State	93	0.00%	0.0%
81	Temple	72	0.00%	0.0%
82	San Diego State	81	0.00%	0.0%
83	UAB	116	0.00%	0.0%
84	Buffalo	109	0.00%	0.0%
85	Louisiana-Monroe	106	0.00%	0.0%
86	Navy	95	0.00%	0.0%
87	Old Dominion	127	0.00%	0.0%
88	UTSA	115	0.00%	0.0%
89	Southern Miss	79	0.00%	0.0%
90	Bowling Green	119	0.00%	0.0%
91	Central Michigan	117	0.00%	0.0%
92	New Mexico	113	0.00%	0.0%
93	San Jose State	111	0.00%	0.0%
94	Nevada	90	0.00%	0.0%
95	UConn	129	0.00%	0.0%
96	Eastern Michigan	99	0.00%	0.0%
97	Hawaii	85	0.00%	0.0%
98	UNLV	96	0.00%	0.0%
99	UTEP	130	0.00%	0.0%
100	Tulane	67	0.00%	0.0%
101	Charlotte	122	0.00%	0.0%

1. So you might have thought that was an relatively uneventful Week 1, but you would be wrong.  There may not have been many consequential losses, but the computers found plenty of interesting things nonetheless.   Ohio State and Michigan were just fine in Week 1, but their roads to the Playoff got tougher as future opponents Penn State and Wisconsin both had massive surges in the ratings (the Nittany Lions went from 13th to 5th in the computers...that's an absurd jump!) and made the Big Ten a much more competitive league.   

In SEC news, LSU looked really good against a solid Georgia Southern program, and climbed to third in both computer ratings and Playoff odds.  This climb partially came at the expense of other SEC teams (Mississippi State and Florida, most notably).  LSU's Week 2 opponent Texas also looked good, and finally caught up a bit with their preseason expectations.

2. As usual, Week 1 officially eliminates every non-power team that lost a game.  Say goodbye to BYU, Toledo, Fresno State, Florida International, Utah State, South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State, Houston, New Mexico State, Miami (OH), Tulsa, Colorado State, Middle Tennessee, Coastal Carolina, Ball State, Georgia Southern, Akron, East Carolina, Liberty, Kent State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Rice, South Alabama, and Texas State.  I also forgot to eliminate Missouri before the season started (they are banned from postseason play), so consider that mistake rectified.

3.  Wild swings in Playoff odds correspond to wild swings in conference title odds.  I decried ACC writers for picking Virginia to win the Coastal, but after one week they've almost caught all the way up to Miami.  Texas is now almost even odds to make the Big 12 title game.  There's roughly a 1 in 4 chance of a Penn State-Wisconsin matchup in Indy.  And LSU has the same odds of making it to Atlanta.  Alabama and Clemson still rule everything, but maybe...they don't?  One can only hope.

In far goofier news, there are just three teams that did not win their division in any of my 10,000 simulations: Arkansas, Oregon State, and UConn.  Yes, this means there was a simulation where Rutgers won the Big Ten East.  And another one where Les Miles gets to coach in the Big 12 title game. 

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	94.0%		North Carolina State	2.4%
ACCC	Miami (FL)	44.4%		Virginia	40.0%
AMEE	Central Florida	65.7%		Cincinnati	29.9%
AMEW	Memphis	52.8%		Tulane	15.0%
B10E	Penn State	43.1%		Michigan	26.3%
B10W	Wisconsin	54.4%		Iowa	24.7%
B12	Oklahoma	83.4%		Texas	46.0%
CUSAE	Marshall	46.4%		Florida Atlantic	24.5%
CUSAW	Southern Miss	47.5%		North Texas	31.0%
MACE	Ohio	61.2%		Miami (OH)	22.5%
MACW	Western Michigan	36.3%		Toledo	35.3%
MWCW	Fresno State	48.8%		San Diego State	20.7%
MWCM	Boise State	74.0%		Air Force	13.7%
P12N	Washington	48.6%		Oregon	28.5%
P12S	Utah	62.2%		USC	16.8%
SECE	Georgia	80.1%		Florida	14.6%
SECW	Alabama	68.2%		LSU	25.2%
SUNE	Appalachian State	73.8%		Troy	15.9%
SUNW	Arkansas State	47.3%		Louisiana-Lafayette	33.4%

Week 2 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Clemson	Texas A&M	85.1%	0.042
Texas	LSU	21.8%	0.035
Ohio State	Cincinnati	83.7%	0.010
Washington	California	89.7%	0.007
Michigan	Army	95.6%	0.003
Utah	Northern Illinois	92.3%	0.002
Maryland	Syracuse	59.3%	0.002
Penn State	Buffalo	98.6%	0.001
Auburn	Tulane	91.7%	0.001
USC	Stanford	57.6%	0.001

Week 2 features two great games and...not a lot else.  A&M-Clemson and Texas-LSU should both be fun (and are at different times, thankfully), but nothing else of major consequence is likely to happen.  There is an SEC West conference game...but it's Ole Miss-Arkansas.  The good news is that everything listed above is spread out through all four times slots such that, if you are so inclined, you can soak in a little bit of everything.  Honestly not a bad way to ease into the season.