Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 11

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Clemson	2	98.25%	1.0%
2	Alabama	1	89.58%	3.0%
3	Notre Dame	7	72.11%	4.5%
4	Michigan	4	47.31%	-3.0%
5	Georgia	3	36.72%	2.0%
6	Oklahoma	5	25.65%	-8.4%
7	West Virginia	9	10.77%	4.8%
8	Ohio State	6	8.79%	2.2%
9	Washington State	17	5.25%	0.7%
10	LSU	12	4.12%	-1.5%
11	Central Florida	24	1.08%	-0.1%
12	Syracuse	35	0.37%	0.0%

1.  Once again, we just saw a weekend where the top teams looked great and there was carnage everywhere else.  At this point, this means that not much has changed from last week.  The computers are a little less in love with Oklahoma at this point, but they're still in decent position to win out and make the Playoff.  Ohio State and West Virginia passed some mild tests and are now close enough to the finish line that their weak SOS is a little less important than it was.  And Clemson is roughly as locked in as a team with three games left can be.

2. We lost NC State, Kentucky, and Boston College in Week 11.  None of them were ever that close to making the Playoff anyway, so that's all I need to say here.

3.  Nobody at the top of the rankings changed much, and so neither did the conference-level odds.  Boring.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.304
ACC	0.986
IND	0.721
B10	0.561
B12	0.364
P12	0.053
AMER	0.011

4. Congrats to three teams we all figured would clinch their divisions with two weeks to go: Clemson, UAB, and Northwestern.  Also congrats to Utah who might be a slight favorite to win the Pac-12, even after losing their QB/RB tandem.  Houston's loss to Temple makes the American West division a three-way scrum, while the Sun Belt remains drunk.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	100.0%
ACCC	Pitt	83.4%		Virginia	9.2%
AMEE	Central Florida	76.7%		Cincinnati	14.2%
AMEW	Houston	34.9%		Tulane	30.7%
B10E	Michigan	63.3%		Ohio State	36.7%
B10W	Northwestern	100.0%
B12	Oklahoma	78.2%		West Virginia	65.9%
CUSAE	Florida International	50.4%		Middle Tennessee	42.1%
CUSAW	UAB	100.0%
MACE	Buffalo	95.7%		Ohio	3.8%
MACW	Northern Illinois	90.9%		Western Michigan	9.1%
MWCW	Fresno State	92.6%		San Diego State	5.4%
MWCM	Utah State	57.0%		Boise State	43.0%
P12N	Washington	52.1%		Washington State	47.9%
P12S	Utah	65.7%		Arizona State	26.9%
SECE	Georgia	100.0%
SECW	Alabama	100.0%
SUNE	Appalachian State	74.4%		Troy	25.5%
SUNW	Louisiana-Lafayette	41.9%		Arkansas State	38.4%

Week 12 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Syracuse	Notre Dame	23.1%	0.058
Oklahoma State	West Virginia	35.3%	0.019
Clemson	Duke	95.2%	0.016
Michigan	Indiana	95.9%	0.010
Maryland	Ohio State	16.9%	0.007
Washington State	Arizona	82.0%	0.005
Central Florida	Cincinnati	70.0%	0.003
Oklahoma	Kansas	97.8%	0.003
Georgia	Massachusetts	99.3%	0.001
LSU	Rice	99.4%	0.000

One of the worst weeks in recent memory features five games with >95% favorites in the top ten games.  Which means that the other five games (plus Iowa State-Texas, if you get the Longhorn Network) are all we have in the way of consequential games.  If you must dig for extra excitement, Michigan State-Nebraska, Fresno-SDSU, and Texas A&M-UAB might be worth a moment of your time.  But overall, do some yardwork or something (unless you're me, I'll still be watching).