| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Clemson | 2 | 96.61% | 6.2% |
| 2 | Alabama | 1 | 80.17% | -6.3% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 9 | 59.88% | 2.4% |
| 4 | Georgia | 3 | 35.38% | 15.5% |
| 5 | Michigan | 5 | 32.97% | -0.7% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 4 | 29.86% | -0.3% |
| 7 | LSU | 10 | 18.86% | 0.3% |
| 8 | Ohio State | 6 | 10.25% | 2.3% |
| 9 | Florida | 15 | 8.35% | -3.7% |
| 10 | Kentucky | 29 | 6.27% | 3.7% |
| 11 | Washington State | 21 | 5.09% | 3.2% |
| 12 | West Virginia | 13 | 4.70% | 1.9% |
| 13 | Utah | 11 | 4.01% | 1.8% |
| 14 | Penn State | 7 | 2.20% | 0.7% |
| 15 | North Carolina State | 35 | 2.17% | -10.8% |
| 16 | Iowa | 12 | 1.42% | -5.3% |
| 17 | Central Florida | 25 | 0.94% | -0.1% |
| 18 | Syracuse | 41 | 0.39% | 0.2% |
| 19 | Texas | 24 | 0.23% | -2.3% |
| 20 | Boston College | 34 | 0.21% | 0.2% |
| 21 | Virginia | 48 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
1. A weird weekend didn't change much for the contenders. Georgia passed a test and jumped as a result - otherwise all we see are small adjustments. The only other massive change comes from NC State losing, which means they're no longer messing up my model. Good.
2. The weekend was mostly kind to the top teams, but was absolutely brutal to two-loss power conference teams. Washington, Texas A&M, Stanford, Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Duke, Virginia Tech, Colorado, South Florida, and Oregon were all eliminated from the fringes of playoff contention. Washington is the first legitimate contender to be eliminated, as they remain 8th in the aggregate ratings. Also, a 10-2 Texas A&M would have been a fascinating test case for the committee, but unfortunately the Aggies weren't quite good enough in Jimbo Fisher's first year.
3. Half the top ten is SEC teams, hence their dominance here. Their chance of getting two teams in the playoff will likely go down next week, especially if Alabama wins at LSU.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.490 |
| ACC | 0.994 |
| IND | 0.599 |
| B10 | 0.468 |
| B12 | 0.348 |
| P12 | 0.091 |
| AMER | 0.009 |
4. Utah, Virginia, and Northwestern all had amazing weeks, as they all won and all of their fellow divisional contenders lost. The Big Ten West will likely come down to the Iowa-Northwestern winner, but Wisconsin and Purdue still have about an 8% chance each. The Pac 12 North will almost certainly come down to the Apple Cup on Thanksgiving Friday. West Virginia (40%) and Iowa State (23%) are still strong contenders for the Big 12 title game. And Pitt is still at 9% to win the ACC Coastal because nothing matters anymore. The Sun Belt is drunk.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 97.3% | Boston College | 2.6% | |
| ACCC | Virginia | 46.4% | Virginia Tech | 27.2% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 68.9% | Temple | 16.4% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 93.6% | Tulane | 2.9% | |
| B10E | Michigan | 64.1% | Ohio State | 32.7% | |
| B10W | Northwestern | 46.5% | Iowa | 38.3% | |
| B12 | Oklahoma | 80.2% | Texas | 44.3% | |
| CUSAE | Florida International | 56.7% | Marshall | 24.0% | |
| CUSAW | UAB | 91.8% | Louisiana Tech | 6.8% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 70.7% | Ohio | 17.9% | |
| MACW | Northern Illinois | 49.2% | Western Michigan | 34.9% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 91.2% | San Diego State | 8.1% | |
| MWCM | Utah State | 71.2% | Boise State | 28.8% | |
| P12N | Washington State | 47.6% | Washington | 44.5% | |
| P12S | Utah | 85.4% | USC | 6.7% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 76.6% | Kentucky | 20.9% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 88.3% | LSU | 11.4% | |
| SUNE | Georgia Southern | 60.9% | Appalachian State | 21.9% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 55.6% | Arkansas State | 27.7% |
Week 10 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| LSU | Alabama | 20.3% | 0.129 |
| Michigan | Penn State | 66.4% | 0.070 |
| Kentucky | Georgia | 21.7% | 0.063 |
| Northwestern | Notre Dame | 26.6% | 0.053 |
| Texas Tech | Oklahoma | 24.7% | 0.037 |
| Florida | Missouri | 66.6% | 0.028 |
| Texas | West Virginia | 46.1% | 0.012 |
| Arizona State | Utah | 28.6% | 0.011 |
| Purdue | Iowa | 44.9% | 0.006 |
| North Carolina State | Florida State | 74.2% | 0.006 |
The best weekend of the year has insane quality and depth. Basically half the good teams go on the road as touchdown favorites. Texas-West Virginia will determine the Sooners' main competition in the Big 12. UCF-Temple will possibly decide the American. And we get the most important Virginia-Pitt game ever on Friday night.
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