| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Clemson | 3 | 83.34% | 15.3% |
| 2 | Alabama | 1 | 66.91% | -1.9% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 9 | 52.34% | 12.2% |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 51.70% | 9.1% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 2 | 51.29% | -3.0% |
| 6 | Penn State | 5 | 20.45% | 3.0% |
| 7 | Washington | 8 | 14.55% | -4.6% |
| 8 | West Virginia | 12 | 11.33% | 2.4% |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 7 | 10.88% | -18.4% |
| 10 | North Carolina State | 23 | 9.48% | -0.9% |
| 11 | Michigan | 6 | 7.51% | 2.4% |
| 12 | Florida | 11 | 5.49% | 2.4% |
| 13 | Miami (FL) | 14 | 2.92% | -1.0% |
| 14 | LSU | 15 | 2.02% | -7.7% |
| 15 | Kentucky | 24 | 2.02% | -4.2% |
| 16 | Texas | 19 | 1.92% | 1.5% |
| 17 | Iowa | 18 | 1.46% | 0.9% |
| 18 | Washington State | 30 | 0.83% | 0.3% |
| 19 | Texas A&M | 17 | 0.73% | 0.4% |
| 20 | Duke | 35 | 0.49% | 0.1% |
| 21 | Central Florida | 21 | 0.39% | 0.1% |
| 22 | Wisconsin | 10 | 0.37% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Utah | 22 | 0.24% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Stanford | 27 | 0.23% | -3.8% |
| 25 | Colorado | 44 | 0.23% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Mississippi State | 13 | 0.18% | 0.1% |
| 27 | South Carolina | 36 | 0.11% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Oregon | 34 | 0.11% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Auburn | 16 | 0.09% | -1.3% |
| 30 | Texas Tech | 25 | 0.08% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Oklahoma State | 20 | 0.06% | -1.7% |
| 32 | Syracuse | 46 | 0.04% | -0.6% |
| 33 | Virginia Tech | 37 | 0.04% | -0.6% |
| 34 | Cincinnati | 51 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Missouri | 28 | 0.03% | -0.3% |
| 36 | USC | 39 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 37 | TCU | 33 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Boston College | 41 | 0.02% | -0.1% |
| 39 | South Florida | 53 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Michigan State | 29 | 0.01% | -0.3% |
| 41 | Maryland | 52 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Indiana | 56 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 43 | California | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Virginia | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Minnesota | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Baylor | 60 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Illinois | 87 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Clemson's drubbing of Wake moves them back into the top spot. The computers still don't love the Tigers, but their increasingly easy future schedule is making it look more and more likely that 12-1 is a worst-case scenario. And yes, there are now five teams with >50% of making the playoff. Those three teams make up more than 3/4 of the entire playoff odds. Basically, 2018's selective chaos has weeded out everyone except for the best teams, which leads to the lopsided table we see now. Oh well, there's still time.
Lower down, it's worth nothing that Colorado and Oregon have much lower playoff odds than their AP rankings might suggest. The most obvious reason for this is that the computers think both teams are overrated, and thus unlikely to finish with strong records. But the other reason is that their projected SOS numbers (.473 and .452, respectively) are comically low for power conference teams. Oregon played Bowling Green and San Jose State out of conference, whereas Colorado faced a bad Colorado State and a winless Nebraska. Additionally, both miss out on good cross-divisional opponents (most notably each other), which hurts in an already unspectacular Pac 12.
2. We say goodbye to Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Florida State. Six teams have now been eliminated from the ACC, which shows why Clemson is in good shape to win out.
3. Same basic story as last week: The Pac 12 and Big 12 need to consolidate power towards their top teams or they're done. The SEC took a couple hits, but Bama and Georgia still give the conference the best chance of placing two.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.293 |
| ACC | 0.963 |
| B10 | 0.811 |
| IND | 0.523 |
| B12 | 0.243 |
| P12 | 0.162 |
| AMER | 0.004 |
4. The conference title grid is fascinating this week. It's now clear that Clemson can effectively wrap up the division with a homecoming win over the Wolfpack in two weeks. Iowa is hanging around in the Big Ten, largely because Wisconsin's cross-division schedule is tougher. The Pac-12 South is officially a three-horse race with Utah (23%) bringing up the rear. Utah State is more likely to win their division than not! UAB is in the lead in theirs!! And most notably is the Big 12, where the most likely playoff participant (West Virginia) is not in the top two most likely to make the conference title game. While they are close (54%), they have a significantly tougher remaining schedule than Oklahoma and Texas.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 89.4% | North Carolina State | 10.0% | |
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 55.1% | Virginia Tech | 35.9% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 59.8% | Cincinnati | 22.3% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 70.1% | Memphis | 16.9% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 75.5% | Michigan | 19.2% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 66.3% | Iowa | 16.6% | |
| B12 | Texas | 62.0% | Oklahoma | 56.0% | |
| CUSAE | Middle Tennessee | 44.6% | Florida International | 36.9% | |
| CUSAW | UAB | 43.4% | North Texas | 36.1% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 58.5% | Ohio | 21.4% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 39.2% | Northern Illinois | 33.1% | |
| MWCW | Fresno State | 77.8% | San Diego State | 19.5% | |
| MWCM | Utah State | 66.0% | Boise State | 32.8% | |
| P12N | Washington | 78.1% | Stanford | 9.4% | |
| P12S | USC | 43.0% | Colorado | 25.6% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 77.1% | Florida | 14.0% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 96.0% | LSU | 2.6% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 70.5% | Georgia Southern | 14.9% | |
| SUNW | Arkansas State | 76.4% | Louisiana-Lafayette | 17.5% |
Week 7 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| LSU | Georgia | 26.2% | 0.053 |
| Oregon | Washington | 28.3% | 0.021 |
| Alabama | Missouri | 92.6% | 0.017 |
| Penn State | Michigan State | 86.0% | 0.014 |
| Michigan | Wisconsin | 70.8% | 0.012 |
| Iowa State | West Virginia | 31.2% | 0.012 |
| Notre Dame | Pitt | 94.0% | 0.011 |
| Ohio State | Minnesota | 95.5% | 0.008 |
| Vanderbilt | Florida | 16.9% | 0.005 |
| South Carolina | Texas A&M | 42.5% | 0.004 |
Gameday is going to The Big House, and while that should be a great game, Georgia-LSU is the best game of the week. The Bulldogs' biggest test to date will be the only legitimate threat to a top five team in week 7, so it only makes sense that it ranks first here. Other than that, there is decent depth in the week, with West Virginia going to Ames at night, and USC and Colorado fighting for their division.
No comments:
Post a Comment