| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 83.45% | -4.5% |
| 2 | Clemson | 3 | 59.64% | -1.9% |
| 3 | Georgia | 7 | 51.19% | 10.0% |
| 4 | Penn State | 4 | 34.69% | 10.1% |
| 5 | Washington | 5 | 34.20% | 2.9% |
| 6 | Ohio State | 2 | 29.27% | -0.7% |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 8 | 28.17% | -1.6% |
| 8 | Miami (FL) | 13 | 22.15% | 11.4% |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 10 | 14.99% | 4.8% |
| 10 | Washington State | 17 | 12.12% | 8.8% |
| 11 | TCU | 14 | 7.17% | -1.4% |
| 12 | Central Florida | 20 | 5.89% | -1.1% |
| 13 | Auburn | 9 | 5.00% | -0.5% |
| 14 | USC | 15 | 4.15% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 6 | 3.60% | -26.9% |
| 16 | San Diego State | 42 | 1.73% | 0.7% |
| 17 | North Carolina State | 21 | 0.66% | 0.4% |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 11 | 0.46% | -0.1% |
| 19 | Michigan | 18 | 0.39% | -7.1% |
| 20 | Virginia Tech | 19 | 0.22% | -0.1% |
| 21 | Michigan State | 32 | 0.21% | 0.2% |
| 22 | Stanford | 16 | 0.15% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | 24 | 0.14% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Texas Tech | 27 | 0.10% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Mississippi State | 23 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Wake Forest | 31 | 0.04% | -0.1% |
| 27 | Texas A&M | 34 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 28 | South Florida | 37 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Louisville | 26 | 0.02% | -0.5% |
| 30 | Kentucky | 60 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Indiana | 45 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Oregon | 22 | 0.01% | -0.6% |
| 33 | Iowa | 30 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 34 | South Carolina | 40 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Utah | 39 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Florida | 33 | 0.00% | -0.3% |
| 37 | LSU | 28 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Tennessee | 52 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Duke | 44 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 40 | Texas | 25 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Virginia | 58 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Kansas State | 29 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 43 | UCLA | 35 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Minnesota | 51 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Iowa State | 41 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Arizona | 43 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Navy | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Maryland | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 49 | West Virginia | 38 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Purdue | 55 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. Oklahoma's loss is perhaps the most shocking in my three year history of doing these probabilities. The Sooners had been a mainstay in or around the top four, and now face a nearly insurmountable climb to make the playoff. The Big 12 is now in trouble for a number of reasons. One, they only have one undefeated team left, so they have much longer odds of getting a team to 13-0. Two, none of their teams have consistently looked like top four teams, so it's difficult to envision one of those teams making a run. Three, the non-conference SOS is still pretty bad. And finally, the conference actually has surprising depth, so everyone's probably taking at least one more loss before the season ends.
2. Eliminated this week are Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Colorado, California, Illinois, Arkansas, and UTSA. We also wave goodbye to Nebraska and hello to the Scott Frost era. And finally, the preseason #3 team (Florida State) is gone after just six weeks. You may think the dual elimination of USC and ND last year in week 4 was more extreme, but 1) neither of those teams were as highly ranked as the Noles, and 2) FSU is really just 4 weeks into the season, too.
3. Conference-wide playoff odds remain straightforward. The SEC has two of the best teams/resumes in the country and has a good chance of getting both of them into the playoff. The Big Ten is still in good shape but probably doesn't have a great shot at two teams. The CUSA gets eliminated finally because it's bad.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| SEC | 1.398 |
| B10 | 0.928 |
| ACC | 0.829 |
| P12 | 0.506 |
| IND | 0.150 |
| B12 | 0.113 |
| AMER | 0.059 |
| MWC | 0.017 |
4. Congrats to Wisconsin on virtually locking up the easiest division in the sport. In other news, Georgia is in great shape in the East, while the random Florida schools (UCF and FAU) have increasingly good odds in their relatively bad divisions. And the MAC East is a bizarre tire fire, with both Miami and Ohio losing yesterday.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACCA | Clemson | 76.8% | North Carolina State | 21.8% | |
| ACCC | Miami (FL) | 74.2% | Virginia Tech | 12.4% | |
| AMEE | Central Florida | 71.1% | South Florida | 28.7% | |
| AMEW | Houston | 59.3% | Navy | 18.8% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 70.5% | Penn State | 27.7% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 97.9% | Purdue | 1.1% | |
| B12 | TCU | 64.2% | Oklahoma | 53.1% | |
| CUSAE | Florida Atlantic | 58.5% | Marshall | 21.1% | |
| CUSAW | North Texas | 38.9% | Southern Miss | 22.6% | |
| MACE | Ohio | 36.2% | Miami (OH) | 24.9% | |
| MACW | Toledo | 40.9% | Western Michigan | 39.3% | |
| MWCW | San Diego State | 89.4% | Fresno State | 10.2% | |
| MWCM | Colorado State | 65.1% | Boise State | 27.7% | |
| P12N | Washington | 71.1% | Washington State | 15.9% | |
| P12S | USC | 85.3% | Arizona | 5.0% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 89.8% | Florida | 8.1% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 79.9% | Auburn | 19.3% | |
| SUN | Appalachian State | 50.6% | Troy | 29.7% |
Week 7 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Miami (FL) | Georgia Tech | 72.2% | 0.021 |
| Syracuse | Clemson | 8.5% | 0.017 |
| Arizona State | Washington | 9.7% | 0.011 |
| Kansas State | TCU | 37.4% | 0.009 |
| Nebraska | Ohio State | 5.6% | 0.008 |
| LSU | Auburn | 28.4% | 0.007 |
| Alabama | Arkansas | 97.5% | 0.007 |
| Wisconsin | Purdue | 92.7% | 0.007 |
| California | Washington State | 16.7% | 0.007 |
| San Diego State | Boise State | 62.2% | 0.007 |
Miami is in the game of the week again! Which isn't hard to do because boy is this a bad week. There is a decent depth of OK games, but absolutely nothing resembles a marquee game or must-watch affair. I suppose it will be interesting to see if LSU can at least make a respectable showing at home, and Wazzu has to face their second straight road game on a short week, but that's about as exciting as it gets. Don't worry, the next week is excellent.
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