Weekly Playoff Probabilities - Week 5

As always, explanation here, ranking below, thoughts after.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob	Change
1	Alabama	1	87.93%	3.0%
2	Clemson	4	61.51%	10.8%
3	Georgia	8	41.17%	10.1%
4	Washington	5	31.32%	-0.8%
5	Oklahoma	3	30.55%	-3.3%
6	Ohio State	2	30.00%	6.0%
7	Wisconsin	7	29.75%	-10.0%
8	Penn State	6	24.58%	3.5%
9	Miami (FL)	14	10.72%	7.2%
10	Notre Dame	10	10.22%	1.8%
11	TCU	13	8.58%	-2.8%
12	Michigan	16	7.49%	-4.9%
13	Central Florida	28	6.97%	3.6%
14	Auburn	9	5.49%	2.7%
15	USC	15	4.17%	-15.3%
16	Washington State	20	3.36%	1.5%
17	Florida State	11	1.70%	-0.4%
18	San Diego State	50	1.05%	-1.0%
19	Oregon	18	0.57%	0.3%
20	Oklahoma State	12	0.52%	-0.3%
21	Louisville	21	0.51%	-0.3%
22	Virginia Tech	19	0.35%	-3.4%
23	Florida	29	0.33%	-0.3%
24	North Carolina State	27	0.28%	-0.1%
25	Stanford	17	0.19%	-0.3%
26	Georgia Tech	22	0.16%	0.1%
27	Wake Forest	30	0.12%	-0.4%
28	Mississippi State	23	0.09%	-2.6%
29	Duke	35	0.07%	-1.2%
30	Utah	41	0.05%	-0.1%
31	South Florida	36	0.04%	-0.1%
32	Texas A&M	32	0.03%	0.0%
33	Navy	57	0.03%	0.0%
34	Kentucky	58	0.02%	-0.1%
35	Michigan State	37	0.02%	0.0%
36	UTSA	72	0.01%	0.0%
37	Indiana	45	0.01%	0.0%
38	Texas Tech	31	0.01%	-0.1%
39	Kansas State	25	0.01%	0.0%
40	Maryland	52	0.01%	0.0%
41	Vanderbilt	63	0.01%	0.0%
42	Minnesota	43	0.01%	-0.4%
43	LSU	26	0.01%	-1.9%
44	Iowa	34	0.00%	-0.1%
45	Northwestern	39	0.00%	0.0%
46	South Carolina	46	0.00%	0.0%
47	Virginia	68	0.00%	0.0%
48	Tennessee	51	0.00%	-0.2%
49	Texas	24	0.00%	0.0%
50	Colorado	49	0.00%	0.0%
51	West Virginia	38	0.00%	0.0%
52	UCLA	33	0.00%	0.0%
53	California	67	0.00%	0.0%
54	Illinois	101	0.00%	0.0%
55	Iowa State	55	0.00%	0.0%
56	Arizona	44	0.00%	0.0%
57	Arkansas	42	0.00%	0.0%
58	Purdue	66	0.00%	0.0%
59	Nebraska	48	0.00%	0.0%

1.  Another relatively straightforward week leaves most teams in about the same place they already were.  Georgia's back-to-back dominations move them into the ever-fickle #3 spot, while USC's loss leaves them with virtually no margin for error.  Washington State and Utah represent the Pac 12's only non-Washington chances for an unbeaten season, but suffer in the playoff odds because of their nearly-impossible remaining schedules.  And Notre Dame creeps into the top ten on the basis of having the best non-SEC SOS of all of the contenders.  The Irish have roughly an 8% chance of winning out, and if they do they will have done enough to be almost assured of a bid.

2.  Virtually every two-loss power conference team won this week, so we only have to say goodbye to Arizona State, Syracuse, and Memphis.  Next week will not be so kind.

3. Georgia's ascension combined with Wisconsin's shakiness makes the SEC the only conference with a realistic chance of putting two teams into the playoff.  In other news, the Trojans' loss to Wazzu damages one of the Pac 12's main contenders without benefiting the Cougars that much, and drops the conference to fifth.  The good news for the Pac 12 is that this is roughly where the conference was last year at this time, and Washington still made it.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.351
B10	0.919
ACC	0.754
B12	0.397
P12	0.397
IND	0.102
AMER	0.070
MWC	0.010
CUSA	0.000

4.  Conference title races started to come into focus this week.  Almost every division now has just two or three serious contenders.  The SEC East once looked wide open, but Georgia has put a quick end to that.  San Diego State has leapt into the rankings, but their razor-thin margins of victory suggest that they're a bit more vulnerable than originally thought.

Conference	Favorite	Perc		Runner-Up	Perc
ACCA	Clemson	76.9%		North Carolina State	12.3%
ACCC	Miami (FL)	62.9%		Virginia Tech	17.3%
AMEE	Central Florida	63.4%		South Florida	36.2%
AMEW	Houston	49.0%		Navy	25.7%
B10E	Ohio State	68.2%		Penn State	25.1%
B10W	Wisconsin	95.5%		Nebraska	2.0%
B12	Oklahoma	82.5%		TCU	60.9%
CUSAE	Florida Atlantic	36.1%		Marshall	27.5%
CUSAW	UTSA	37.0%		Louisiana Tech	30.9%
MACE	Ohio	51.6%		Miami (OH)	35.9%
MACW	Toledo	42.7%		Western Michigan	37.9%
MWCW	San Diego State	82.2%		Fresno State	10.7%
MWCM	Colorado State	56.1%		Boise State	27.6%
P12N	Washington	71.6%		Stanford	14.3%
P12S	USC	86.3%		UCLA	4.3%
SECE	Georgia	78.3%		Florida	20.4%
SECW	Alabama	82.5%		Auburn	16.3%
SUN	Appalachian State	45.1%		Troy	36.1%

Week 6 Preview

Home	Away	Home Win Prob	Playoff Teams Lost
Florida State	Miami (FL)	62.9%	0.029
Clemson	Wake Forest	90.5%	0.020
Texas A&M	Alabama	6.1%	0.018
Vanderbilt	Georgia	11.5%	0.016
Nebraska	Wisconsin	15.3%	0.015
Northwestern	Penn State	16.4%	0.013
Cincinnati	Central Florida	13.5%	0.009
North Carolina	Notre Dame	16.5%	0.008
Oregon	Washington State	62.8%	0.008
Ohio State	Maryland	96.1%	0.006

Once again, we have the week of the home underdog, as most of the "exciting" games hinge on a top ten team tripping up against an overmatched opponent on the road.  There's not a lot to highlight this weekend, but the depth of games with a chance to be at least decent is impressive.  The re-scheduled FSU-Miami game gives us the only thing resembling a marquee game this weekend, but that's not where Gameday is headed.  Rather, they are continuing their season of odd decisions and going to a game that ranks 14th in playoff excitement, TCU-West Virginia.  Finally, the Thursday night game between NC State and Louisville doesn't have a lot of playoff implications, but the battle between Lamar Jackson and the Wolfpack's defensive line should be one to watch.