| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 84.45% | 4.6% |
| 2 | Florida State | 3 | 76.62% | 2.4% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 2 | 55.87% | 1.4% |
| 4 | Clemson | 7 | 41.30% | -23.7% |
| 5 | Michigan | 4 | 35.27% | 0.5% |
| 6 | Tennessee | 9 | 20.45% | 12.1% |
| 7 | Louisville | 10 | 16.02% | 10.7% |
| 8 | Washington | 8 | 15.75% | 4.6% |
| 9 | LSU | 5 | 6.92% | -1.7% |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 11 | 6.09% | 3.0% |
| 11 | Boise State | 28 | 4.98% | 0.4% |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 6 | 4.30% | -1.8% |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 15 | 3.72% | 0.4% |
| 14 | Stanford | 13 | 2.52% | -0.2% |
| 15 | Baylor | 20 | 2.26% | -0.7% |
| 16 | Ole Miss | 12 | 2.17% | -0.5% |
| 17 | Texas | 25 | 2.04% | 0.5% |
| 18 | Wisconsin | 21 | 1.65% | 0.5% |
| 19 | Nebraska | 19 | 1.58% | 0.3% |
| 20 | Iowa | 23 | 1.51% | 0.6% |
| 21 | San Diego State | 50 | 1.33% | 0.9% |
| 22 | UCLA | 14 | 1.18% | -0.3% |
| 23 | Western Michigan | 49 | 1.17% | 0.1% |
| 24 | Florida | 17 | 1.14% | 1.0% |
| 25 | Miami (FL) | 26 | 1.10% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Houston | 32 | 1.00% | -0.5% |
| 27 | Toledo | 48 | 0.98% | 0.5% |
| 28 | West Virginia | 31 | 0.86% | -0.1% |
| 29 | Arkansas | 29 | 0.83% | 0.6% |
| 30 | Central Michigan | 60 | 0.67% | 0.7% |
| 31 | USC | 18 | 0.61% | 0.5% |
| 32 | Oklahoma State | 22 | 0.59% | -9.6% |
| 33 | Auburn | 16 | 0.43% | 0.3% |
| 34 | BYU | 42 | 0.37% | 0.3% |
| 35 | Georgia | 33 | 0.31% | -4.7% |
| 36 | Oregon | 30 | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Michigan State | 39 | 0.24% | 0.0% |
| 38 | North Carolina | 24 | 0.24% | 0.0% |
| 39 | South Florida | 35 | 0.24% | 0.2% |
| 40 | Pitt | 34 | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| 41 | TCU | 27 | 0.12% | -2.5% |
| 42 | Arizona State | 38 | 0.12% | 0.1% |
| 43 | Utah | 40 | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Southern Miss | 74 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Penn State | 36 | 0.05% | -0.5% |
| 46 | Cincinnati | 58 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Georgia Tech | 47 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Air Force | 76 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Marshall | 62 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Texas Tech | 43 | 0.02% | -0.3% |
| 51 | Georgia Southern | 73 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Colorado | 44 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Army | 88 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Wake Forest | 64 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Virginia Tech | 45 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 56 | East Carolina | 70 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Minnesota | 54 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Indiana | 67 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Maryland | 66 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Mississippi State | 37 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | North Carolina State | 41 | 0.00% | -0.2% |
| 62 | Boston College | 53 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Missouri | 46 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | South Carolina | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Vanderbilt | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | California | 51 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Kansas State | 59 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Duke | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Illinois | 72 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Arizona | 63 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Syracuse | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Purdue | 84 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Kansas | 101 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Rutgers | 85 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Oregon State | 80 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Northwestern | 68 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Washington State | 56 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Virginia | 83 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 79 | Kentucky | 86 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Iowa State | 94 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 81 | Navy | 69 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 82 | Memphis | 78 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 83 | Texas State | 113 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. As promised, the second week was far less important to the playoff race than the first. That said, some poor performances cut into a couple of the contenders' chances. Oklahoma State's unfortunate loss drops them from the top ten to less than 1%. Clemson's close call against Troy drops them a spot, and a pair of six-point wins makes America wonder if Clemson's having a bit of the title hangover effect without having won the title. And most of all, Georgia drops a ton after falling from 12th to 33rd in the aggregate ranks following a tight win over an FCS foe. I've never seen a team lose more than 90% of their playoff odds after a win. Congrats, Governor Kirby.
2. More Group of 5 carnage led to another large group of eliminations. Wave goodbye to Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Tulsa, New Mexico, Troy, Nevada, Connecticut, Akron, Ball State, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Idaho, Louisiana-Monroe, Nevada-Las Vegas, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Methodist, Texas-El Paso, Texas-San Antonio, Utah State, and Wyoming. We have yet to lose any real contenders yet, so the next few weeks should be fun.
3. We knew coming into the season that the Pac 12 would have trouble finding a playoff team. Nothing has changed on that front. Additionally, it's starting to look unlikely that ND or the Big 12 will participate, either. This means we are getting closer and closer to our first playoff with two teams from one conference. The ACC Atlantic alone has just over one-third of the current playoff odds. That should lower after the next few weeks (Louisville plays both FSU and Clemson), but it's still likely that we'll have our first non-conference champ in the playoff.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| ACC | 1.356 |
| SEC | 1.228 |
| B10 | 0.962 |
| P12 | 0.206 |
| B12 | 0.102 |
| MWC | 0.063 |
| IND | 0.041 |
| MAC | 0.028 |
| AMER | 0.013 |
| CUSA | 0.001 |
| SB | 0.000 |
4. We have two directional Michigans in the top thirty. The end times are near.
5. If you're paying weirdly close attention to this, you may have noticed that BYU jumped up a bit after losing a game. This is because I had a brain fart, and forgot to move them to the power conference bucket (where teams with 1 and 2 losses can make the playoff) until this week. I had BYU in the Group of 5 bucket originally, but then their national ranking last year and their difficult schedule this year* have forced my hand. There are certainly universes where an 11-1 Cougar squad gets playoff consideration, so remain in my model they shall.
*They currently have a .544 projected SOS in my model, which is ahead of a lot of power conference teams (looking at you, Michigan).
Conference Race of the Week
With three ACC Atlantic teams in the top ten, let's check in on the race there. It may seem counter-intuitive for Louisville to be ahead of the slightly better-rated Clemson, but Louisville's already defeated a road foe, so they have the temporary edge. On the other side, no one has emerged as a serious challenger to UNC, but the Tar Heels aren't exactly running away with it either.
Week 3 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Louisville | Florida State | 44.0% | 0.142 |
| Oklahoma | Ohio State | 45.3% | 0.096 |
| Ole Miss | Alabama | 25.3% | 0.079 |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | 51.6% | 0.011 |
| Michigan | Colorado | 90.6% | 0.011 |
| Stanford | USC | 62.9% | 0.005 |
| LSU | Mississippi State | 85.9% | 0.005 |
| Notre Dame | Michigan State | 77.5% | 0.005 |
| BYU | UCLA | 32.7% | 0.003 |
| Nebraska | Oregon | 67.1% | 0.002 |
Even with some of the upheaval of the past two weeks, Week 3 is still the best Saturday of the year. Not only are the top three games hugely impactful to the playoff race, but they all take place at different times of the day (FSU-UL at noon, Bama-Ole Miss at 3:30, and OSU-OU at night). Furthermore, two of the three games are virtual coin flips, while the other one is the continuation of what's quickly become one of the best rivalries in the south. The rest of the week doesn't mean as much to the playoff race, but there's still plenty of entertainment to be had with many fringe contenders (MSU, Oregon, Stanford) facing their first real tests of the year.
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