| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 79.80% | 33.1% |
| 2 | Florida State | 2 | 74.22% | 23.0% |
| 3 | Clemson | 3 | 65.02% | 12.4% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 4 | 54.45% | 30.3% |
| 5 | Michigan | 5 | 34.82% | 18.5% |
| 6 | Washington | 9 | 11.10% | 3.7% |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 11 | 10.21% | 1.7% |
| 8 | LSU | 6 | 8.65% | -32.8% |
| 9 | Tennessee | 10 | 8.31% | -10.6% |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 7 | 6.14% | -50.0% |
| 11 | Louisville | 14 | 5.28% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Georgia | 12 | 5.00% | 1.5% |
| 13 | Boise State | 22 | 4.58% | 2.5% |
| 14 | Notre Dame | 17 | 3.36% | -7.9% |
| 15 | Texas A&M | 15 | 3.10% | 1.8% |
| 16 | Baylor | 18 | 2.92% | -2.7% |
| 17 | Stanford | 16 | 2.77% | -0.1% |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 8 | 2.72% | -8.8% |
| 19 | TCU | 20 | 2.61% | -0.4% |
| 20 | Texas | 24 | 1.59% | 1.0% |
| 21 | Houston | 29 | 1.52% | 1.4% |
| 22 | UCLA | 13 | 1.48% | -5.3% |
| 23 | Nebraska | 21 | 1.24% | -0.2% |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 27 | 1.16% | 0.9% |
| 25 | Western Michigan | 52 | 1.06% | 0.7% |
| 26 | West Virginia | 30 | 1.01% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Miami (FL) | 25 | 0.89% | 0.1% |
| 28 | Iowa | 31 | 0.87% | -0.9% |
| 29 | Penn State | 35 | 0.56% | -0.6% |
| 30 | Toledo | 59 | 0.49% | 0.4% |
| 31 | San Diego State | 53 | 0.40% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Oregon | 32 | 0.28% | -1.0% |
| 33 | Texas Tech | 38 | 0.27% | 0.1% |
| 34 | North Carolina State | 36 | 0.23% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Michigan State | 40 | 0.22% | -2.6% |
| 36 | North Carolina | 23 | 0.19% | -1.3% |
| 37 | Pitt | 34 | 0.19% | -0.3% |
| 38 | Arkansas | 33 | 0.19% | -0.5% |
| 39 | Auburn | 19 | 0.18% | -0.5% |
| 40 | Utah | 37 | 0.15% | -0.1% |
| 41 | Florida | 26 | 0.14% | -0.3% |
| 42 | USC | 28 | 0.09% | -6.8% |
| 43 | Southern Miss | 70 | 0.08% | 0.1% |
| 44 | South Florida | 43 | 0.08% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Western Kentucky | 50 | 0.06% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Georgia Tech | 46 | 0.05% | 0.0% |
| 47 | BYU | 39 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Middle Tennessee | 77 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Arizona State | 42 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Minnesota | 56 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Indiana | 63 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Virginia Tech | 45 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Central Michigan | 72 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Northwestern | 51 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Navy | 62 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Duke | 48 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Air Force | 87 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 58 | Georgia Southern | 79 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Colorado | 47 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Marshall | 78 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Tulsa | 67 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 62 | South Carolina | 55 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Illinois | 61 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Arizona | 44 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 65 | California | 49 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Cincinnati | 68 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 67 | New Mexico | 90 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Army | 89 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Maryland | 73 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Syracuse | 66 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Boston College | 54 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Mississippi State | 41 | 0.00% | -0.2% |
| 73 | Purdue | 74 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Wake Forest | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Kansas State | 57 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Missouri | 60 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Kansas | 93 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Washington State | 64 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 79 | Vanderbilt | 65 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Virginia | 84 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 81 | Rutgers | 86 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 82 | Kentucky | 71 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 83 | Iowa State | 85 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 84 | Oregon State | 81 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 85 | Troy | 97 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 86 | Memphis | 83 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 87 | Nevada | 94 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 88 | UConn | 92 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 89 | Akron | 106 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 90 | Ball State | 101 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 91 | Central Florida | 91 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 92 | East Carolina | 76 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 93 | Eastern Michigan | 121 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 94 | Florida Atlantic | 104 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 95 | Idaho | 118 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 96 | Louisiana-Monroe | 126 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 97 | UNLV | 100 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 98 | Old Dominion | 109 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 99 | South Alabama | 105 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 100 | SMU | 96 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 101 | UTEP | 119 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 102 | UTSA | 124 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 103 | Texas State | 117 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 104 | Utah State | 69 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 105 | Wyoming | 103 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
1. The "Greatest Opening Week Ever"* lived up to the hype, dealing serious blows to several teams' playoff hopes. Most fascinating of all was Oklahoma, which not only fell from it's top spot in the playoff rankings, but also tumbled down the computer aggregate (from 2nd to 7th). The teams that didn't lose climbed up partially because of good performance (Hi Alabama!), but also because someone had to pick up the slack of all the teams that lost. In short, this means we have a new definitive top five that replaces LSU and Oklahoma with those annoying Big Ten East teams. Personally, I am loving the random pairing of Washington and Okie State just outside the top five. We'll see if those plucky upstarts (fueled by maybe the best coach in the country and millions in oil money, respectively) can keep it up.
*Not to get all Ron Howard on you, but, it wasn't
2. Houston is the talk of the town, and for good reason. But my playoff rankings have Boise State as the Group of Five member most likely to crash the party. It makes sense if you dig into the model for a second: Boise is both higher in the computer rankings and has a much easier path to going undefeated (Boise's toughest remaining game is a home date with BYU that they have a better than 70% chance of winning, while Houston will probably be a home dog when they play Louisville in November). You may reply by saying, "Hey Mike, I thought that you said your model looks at SOS now, and Houston's SOS would be way better." And while I'll grant you that Houston has a much tougher slate of games, my model doesn't care, as it's only looking to see if a Group of Five team can go undefeated. Yes, it is likely that Houston's SOS would give them an edge with the committee should both the Cougars and Broncos go undefeated. But we only have 11 undefeated team-seasons for non-power conference teams in the dataset and I don't feel super comfortable extrapolating from that (especially considering that Houston exists in a conference that's clearly better than the other small conferences....a configuration that hasn't always existed in the past). Should this anomaly persist through the season, I may make some sort of adjustment. But until then, I will keep it as it is and hope that Tom Herman doesn't make me look stupid (he will).
3. With the first week of games comes the first set of eliminations. Our model waves goodbye to Temple, Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Arkansas State, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Colorado State, Georgia State, Ohio, Buffalo, Florida International, Fresno State, Kent State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Charlotte, and the well-travelled Hawaii. These teams represented a grand total of 0.2% chance of making the playoff, but it's still sad to say goodbye.
4. There was much to do about the SEC's struggles this past weekend, but I feel that was a touch overblown. For one, almost every major game this weekend involved an SEC team, so there were bound to be a few losses. Other conferences will catch up when they get around to their big non-conference tilts. Secondly, the gains of Alabama and a couple others almost made up for the teams that went tumbling. Still, the SEC did fall a bit, and the ACC and Big Ten took the majority of the spoils. With the Pac 12, Big 12, and Notre Dame all taking hits, it's looking more and more likely that this year's playoff will be the first to feature a conference with two bids.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| ACC | 1.461 |
| SEC | 1.081 |
| B10 | 0.934 |
| B12 | 0.247 |
| P12 | 0.159 |
| MWC | 0.050 |
| IND | 0.034 |
| AMER | 0.016 |
| MAC | 0.016 |
| CUSA | 0.002 |
| SB | 0.000 |
Conference Race of the Week
As promised, I won't update you on every conference race every week, but I will point out one interesting result when I feel like it. This week, let's take a look at the Pac 12, which is somehow more in favor of a UCLA-Washington matchup than it was previously:
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Alabama | Western Kentucky | 96.3% | 0.010 |
| Ohio State | Tulsa | 95.4% | 0.008 |
| Tennessee | Virginia Tech | 81.1% | 0.005 |
| Clemson | Troy | 98.3% | 0.004 |
| Syracuse | Louisville | 19.3% | 0.003 |
| TCU | Arkansas | 68.3% | 0.003 |
| Michigan | Central Florida | 97.6% | 0.003 |
| Boise State | Washington State | 82.0% | 0.003 |
| Oklahoma State | Central Michigan | 92.2% | 0.003 |
| Pitt | Penn State | 60.7% | 0.001 |
As I said in the season preview, this is the weekend to make other plans if you must. The top two games (in terms of playoff importance) are laughers, and there really aren't a lot of closely matched games to balance that out. The night viewing will be good enough (El Assico is opposite TCU-Arkansas and the Bristol game), but your daylight hours would be best spent building up credit for the fantastic Week 3 slate.
No comments:
Post a Comment