| Rank | Team | FPI Rank | CHAMP Prob | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Clemson | 6 | 17.75% | 74.30% | -2.7% |
| 2 | Iowa | 26 | 5.10% | 65.95% | 12.4% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 1 | 24.73% | 52.58% | 10.8% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 3 | 17.73% | 52.58% | 28.7% |
| 5 | Alabama | 2 | 15.83% | 42.21% | 6.2% |
| 6 | Michigan State | 14 | 5.89% | 36.21% | 4.6% |
| 7 | North Carolina | 15 | 4.18% | 26.09% | 7.5% |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 9 | 1.57% | 7.55% | -22.2% |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 17 | 0.88% | 7.55% | -17.2% |
| 10 | Northwestern | 53 | 0.15% | 7.55% | 2.8% |
| 11 | Texas Christian | 7 | 1.80% | 7.55% | 3.5% |
| 12 | Florida State | 10 | 1.57% | 7.55% | 3.5% |
| 13 | Baylor | 4 | 2.28% | 6.97% | -25.4% |
| 14 | Stanford | 11 | 0.70% | 3.63% | 0.8% |
| 15 | Florida | 23 | 0.17% | 1.71% | -11.2% |
1. Saying goodbye this week is one team: Michigan. Thanks to a fairly "normal" final couple of weeks, we'll likely end up with 13-15 teams in the final ranking, which is more than I expected a couple of weeks ago.
2. As I said last week, it's unlikely that the Big Ten gets two teams in, but if someone's going to do it, it's them. This weeks conference ratings reflect that:
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| Big 10 | 1.623 |
| ACC | 1.079 |
| Big 12 | 0.747 |
| SEC | 0.439 |
| Independent | 0.076 |
| Pac 12 | 0.036 |
3. Our New Champ Watch is on its last legs with Baylor and Oklahoma State both suffering losses that effectively eliminate them from contention. Iowa now represents the best chance at crowning a new champion with a 13.3% chance between all of the remaining teams.
4. At this point, the simplicity of my model is catching up with it. All the non-Stanford two-loss teams clearly have no shot against the top teams, but they're all sitting there with the default odds for a team in their bucket (except for the teams with a game remaining). I'll talk about changes more next week (and next summer), but I'll likely add the following next year:
A. Other ratings systems (S&P+, Sagarin)
B. Better conference champ game odds throughout the season
C. Some SOS rating (the Alabama-Iowa correction I mentioned earlier)
D. Some conditional odds based on the number of 0, 1, and 2 loss teams (so a bunch of 10-2 teams with no chance don't show up at ~7%)
Week 14 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Iowa | Michigan State | 36.35% | 0.204 |
| Clemson | North Carolina | 58.95% | 0.175 |
| Alabama | Florida | 77.28% | 0.071 |
| Stanford | USC | 47.67% | 0.018 |
| Baylor | Texas | 93.08% | 0.005 |
Unsurprisingly, championship week gives us the two biggest games of the year concerning the playoff. There isn't much else of note on Saturday, but those matchups should be more than enough to make up for the lack of depth.
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