| Rank | Team | FPI Rank | CHAMP Prob | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Clemson | 5 | 19.52% | 69.88% | 2.5% |
| 2 | Iowa | 29 | 4.12% | 54.85% | 5.1% |
| 3 | Ohio State | 4 | 18.06% | 53.90% | 6.5% |
| 4 | Oklahoma State | 13 | 7.06% | 39.75% | 2.4% |
| 5 | Alabama | 3 | 11.28% | 31.44% | 14.4% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 1 | 14.15% | 30.71% | 17.8% |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 7 | 7.10% | 28.21% | 1.4% |
| 8 | Baylor | 2 | 7.71% | 20.31% | -17.2% |
| 9 | Florida | 14 | 3.46% | 20.00% | 3.9% |
| 10 | North Carolina | 15 | 1.82% | 11.45% | -0.1% |
| 11 | Texas Christian | 6 | 2.77% | 10.63% | -3.9% |
| 12 | Michigan State | 22 | 1.02% | 8.99% | 0.6% |
| 13 | Houston | 37 | 0.26% | 5.55% | 1.5% |
| 14 | Florida State | 16 | 0.47% | 3.07% | 1.7% |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 24 | 0.27% | 2.83% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Utah | 23 | 0.25% | 2.34% | -12.5% |
| 17 | Louisiana State | 10 | 0.47% | 2.26% | -10.0% |
| 18 | Stanford | 11 | 0.37% | 1.82% | -11.8% |
| 19 | Michigan | 17 | 0.18% | 1.23% | 0.1% |
| 20 | Northwestern | 61 | 0.01% | 0.80% | 0.4% |
1. Now that we're running out of teams to list, the goodbyes are coming a little more slowly. This week we bid adieu to Mississippi State, UCLA, and BYU. Yeah, BYU wasn't actually close to sniffing a playoff bid, but I didn't know what else to do with them. I will not have this problem next year, as the Cougars' schedule is loaded. They'll either be losing several games, or will be deservedly right in the mix. And yes, of the twenty remaining teams, Iowa has the third-lowest FPI rating, behind the only "Group of Five" team, and a team they beat by 40. Do with that information what you will.
2. Despite the below numbers, I don't actually think the Big Ten has the best chance of placing a team in the playoff, compared with other conferences. The Big Ten has such a high playoff probability because they still have six teams with two or fewer losses, but this is not a season when any of the two-loss teams have a realistic shot of making it. As for the other teams, there are too many landmines remaining (OSU-Michigan, Iowa-Nebraska, MSU-PSU) for me to get too comfortable with any of them. A Big Ten team is almost assured of making it at this point, but two seems like a big ask. In other news, yikes Pac 12. The conference does go 9 or 10 deep with good teams, but none of them are quite on that elite level. Get yourself healthy and we'll see you back here next season.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| Big 10 | 1.226 |
| Big 12 | 1.014 |
| ACC | 0.844 |
| SEC | 0.537 |
| Independent | 0.282 |
| American | 0.056 |
| Pac 12 | 0.042 |
3. In a weird way, I think the ACC might actually have the best chance of placing two teams in the playoff.* This isn't because I think the conference is super-duper fantastic (they're fine), but rather because of the specific situation. Clemson appears to be the apple of the committee's eye, so it stands to reason that they could survive a close loss to a good team. Fortunately for them, North Carolina has become more than just a good team in recent weeks. If both teams make it to 12-1, I could see them both making the playoff over some other one-loss teams. The one caveat to this is that the Tar Heels were just 23rd in the most recent committee poll. They're sure to shoot up this week, but with just one "marquee" game remaining, that might be too much ground to cover. This scenario probably requires a couple of key losses here and there (most notably Stanford over ND), but I can ever so faintly see this happening.
*Although I would also hear an argument for 12-1 Florida and 11-2 Alabama both making it. 11-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Oklahoma State seems less likely. 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State is a thing, but as I said, I just don't think they both make Indianapolis unscathed.
4. Baylor's loss gives the New Champion Watch a major blow. Add in Stanford and Utah all but eliminating themselves, and the odds of crowning a brand new champ have fallen to 21.86%. The winner of this weekend's Oklahoma State-Baylor game will be the flag-bearer for this group heading into the final weeks.
5. I noted this on the Facebook, but it appears that Nate Silver read my very comments on this blog (or more likely, the comment I left on his), and updated his model to make it a bit more realistic. Most notably, infamous outliers Iowa and Alabama are now within the range of what I would expect them to be. In related news, I will probably try to tweak my ratings to include some sort of rudimentary strength of schedule for next season, so I can fix my own inverted Iowa-Alabama problem.
Nebraska Bowl Watch
The Cornhuskers dispatched Rutgers relatively easily to inch within one game of bowl eligibility. Unfortunately, that game is against one of the few remaining unbeatens, Iowa. Fortunately, because the game is at home (and because Iowa is actually only decent), FPI gives Nebraska a pretty good of getting the win. The odds currently stand at 45.9%.
Week 12 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Oklahoma State | Baylor | 38.57% | 0.120 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 73.71% | 0.079 |
| Ohio State | Michigan State | 78.89% | 0.073 |
| Virginia Tech | North Carolina | 37.72% | 0.022 |
| Iowa | Purdue | 90.38% | 0.018 |
| Ole Miss | LSU | 60.93% | 0.014 |
| Wisconsin | Northwestern | 80.44% | 0.012 |
| Boston College | Notre Dame | 8.25% | 0.012 |
| Utah | UCLA | 54.81% | 0.011 |
| Clemson | Wake Forest | 96.92% | 0.007 |
| Stanford | California | 73.25% | 0.005 |
| Penn State | Michigan | 33.60% | 0.004 |
| Connecticut | Houston | 16.26% | 0.003 |
| Florida | Florida Atlantic | 97.86% | 0.002 |
Since we're down to just twenty teams in the playoff race, I'll start listing every non-FCS game involving one of those teams. That leaves us with just 14 "impactful" games this week, but the top three are absolutely huge. It's quite possible that nothing tops Oklahoma State-Baylor for the rest of the season in terms of its effect on the playoff race. Add in some exciting games not on the list (Oregon-USC, Arkansas-Mississippi State), and we have ourselves the best weekend of the year thus far.
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