| Rank | Team | FPI Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 2 | 69.458% | -3.8% |
| 2 | Texas Christian | 3 | 45.619% | 8.6% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 10 | 30.917% | -6.3% |
| 4 | Mississippi | 1 | 29.374% | 14.1% |
| 5 | Baylor | 9 | 29.281% | -18.9% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 11 | 24.212% | 14.1% |
| 7 | Georgia | 5 | 23.592% | 2.7% |
| 8 | Michigan State | 15 | 22.756% | 3.8% |
| 9 | Southern California | 4 | 22.156% | 3.6% |
| 10 | Florida State | 16 | 14.546% | -6.7% |
| 11 | Louisiana State | 6 | 13.913% | 2.4% |
| 12 | UCLA | 17 | 11.929% | -6.0% |
| 13 | Texas A&M | 8 | 10.798% | -1.1% |
| 14 | Alabama | 7 | 6.496% | 1.4% |
| 15 | Clemson | 18 | 6.022% | 0.7% |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 23 | 5.392% | 3.0% |
| 17 | Georgia Tech | 14 | 4.619% | 2.9% |
| 18 | Oregon | 13 | 4.199% | -7.9% |
| 19 | West Virginia | 20 | 2.995% | -1.4% |
| 20 | Iowa | 50 | 2.794% | 2.0% |
| 21 | North Carolina State | 39 | 2.239% | 0.5% |
| 22 | Miami (FL) | 25 | 2.155% | 0.7% |
| 23 | Tennessee | 12 | 1.897% | -5.7% |
| 24 | Duke | 38 | 1.502% | 0.8% |
| 25 | California | 22 | 1.185% | 0.6% |
| 26 | Toledo | 58 | 1.107% | 1.1% |
| 27 | Northwestern | 45 | 0.952% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Arizona | 35 | 0.888% | 0.4% |
| 29 | Oklahoma State | 32 | 0.792% | -1.0% |
| 30 | Kansas State | 33 | 0.625% | 0.5% |
| 31 | Michigan | 30 | 0.563% | 0.2% |
| 32 | Missouri | 34 | 0.552% | 0.2% |
| 33 | Illinois | 40 | 0.496% | 0.3% |
| 34 | Kentucky | 42 | 0.485% | 0.4% |
| 35 | Stanford | 21 | 0.391% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Florida | 24 | 0.385% | -1.1% |
| 37 | Texas Tech | 28 | 0.376% | 0.3% |
| 38 | North Carolina | 31 | 0.346% | -0.2% |
| 39 | Utah | 36 | 0.344% | -0.3% |
| 40 | Temple | 49 | 0.340% | 0.1% |
| 41 | Virginia Tech | 29 | 0.337% | -0.6% |
| 42 | Ohio | 70 | 0.136% | 0.1% |
| 43 | Nebraska | 43 | 0.106% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Brigham Young | 47 | 0.091% | 0.1% |
| 45 | Memphis | 48 | 0.089% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Auburn | 27 | 0.083% | -0.6% |
| 47 | Houston | 68 | 0.075% | 0.1% |
| 48 | Mississippi State | 26 | 0.073% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Boston College | 59 | 0.066% | 0.1% |
| 50 | Western Kentucky | 60 | 0.049% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Penn State | 53 | 0.043% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Arizona State | 41 | 0.033% | -0.1% |
| 53 | Minnesota | 51 | 0.030% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Pittsburgh | 57 | 0.029% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Arkansas | 19 | 0.019% | -1.3% |
| 56 | Washington | 52 | 0.017% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Syracuse | 65 | 0.011% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Indiana | 77 | 0.008% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Air Force | 73 | 0.004% | 0.0% |
| 60 | South Carolina | 37 | 0.004% | -0.1% |
| 61 | Texas | 44 | 0.003% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Louisville | 56 | 0.003% | -0.3% |
| 63 | Purdue | 64 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Rutgers | 72 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Colorado | 62 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Virginia | 55 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Maryland | 92 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Oregon State | 98 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Iowa State | 71 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Wake Forest | 90 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Washington State | 74 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Kansas | 113 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Vanderbilt | 63 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Navy | 87 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Northern Illinois | 81 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Old Dominion | 108 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Tulsa | 91 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Connecticut | 110 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 79 | UNC Charlotte | 114 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
As with last week, a few thoughts:
1. Once again, we wave goodbye to teams that no longer "qualify" for the playoff, based on conference membership and number of losses. I will miss you, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Boise State, Utah State, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Colorado State, Rice, San Diego State, Appalachian State, Nevada, Middle Tennessee State, Florida International, Ball State, Fresno State, Hawaii, South Alabama, New Mexico, Buffalo, North Texas, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), San Jose State, and South Florida.
2. Our conference picture gets a little clearer, with the top three leagues pulling away from the pack. Additionally, the non-power conferences' diminishing odds reflect the carnage of the past two weeks. The Sun Belt is completely eliminated, and the Mountain West is down to an Air Force team that has to travel to Michigan State this weekend. Toledo's 1.1% chance of making the playoff represents over 60% of mid-majordom's total chances. Good luck out there Rockets, we're counting on you.
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| Big 12 | 1.039 |
| Big 10 | 1.026 |
| SEC | 0.877 |
| Pac 12 | 0.411 |
| ACC | 0.319 |
| Independent | 0.310 |
| MAC | 0.012 |
| American | 0.005 |
| CUSA | 0.000 |
| MWC | 0.000 |
3. The biggest movers in the positive direction are Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The Sooners' rise makes sense, as they passed one of their biggest tests of the year, and now have an extra win in the bank (or more accurately, they now have one fewer chance to lose). Ole Miss' ascension is a little less obvious, but once you factor in the tumbles taken by division mates Arkansas and Auburn as well as the Rebels' first place ranking in FPI, it starts to make a little more sense. Like I said at the beginning of the season, it's quite likely that someone from the SEC West ends up standing out by season's end. With Ole Miss climbing up these rankings, we're starting to see the first hint of this actually happening.
4. Baylor is the biggest tumbler of the week, as FPI didn't look to kindly on their struggle with Lamar, dropping the Bears from 3rd to 9th. That, combined with TCU's easy win, lowered Baylor's chance of beating the Frogs from 46% to 33%, which explains a big part of their reduced playoff odds. Among other notable decreases, Florida State and Notre Dame clearly dropped because of their poor performances on Saturday, while UCLA's 6% drop was more a result of future opponents playing well.
5. Iowa is now the 20th most likely team to make the playoff, which puts them a full 30 spots higher in this list than in the measure of true talent. Sure those odds are probably exaggerated, as I am not factoring in that they would be heavy underdogs to lose to Ohio State or Michigan State in a hypothetical Big Ten title game matchup. Still, it's fun to dream.
Week 3 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Alabama | Ole Miss | 44.67% | 0.056 |
| Notre Dame | Georgia Tech | 66.46% | 0.045 |
| USC | Stanford | 81.55% | 0.015 |
| Boston College | Florida State | 19.41% | 0.010 |
| Georgia | South Carolina | 89.96% | 0.008 |
| LSU | Auburn | 84.88% | 0.007 |
| UCLA | BYU | 83.45% | 0.007 |
| Louisville | Clemson | 25.88% | 0.005 |
| Michigan State | Air Force | 93.95% | 0.005 |
| Ohio State | Northern Illinois | 98.14% | 0.004 |
My original rankings pegged Week 3 as the least impactful to the playoff. While the week still lags behind most subsequent weeks, it's gotten better, largely because the top two games make for a fantastic pair. The continued awesomeness of Alabama and Georgia Tech should provide strong tests for two of the most ascendant teams of the early season. In other action, Louisville attempts to avoid "elimination" 22 days into the season, and Ohio State shows up again simply because they make such a substantial domino.
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