| Rank | Team | FPI Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1 | 73.264% | 5.2% |
| 2 | Baylor | 3 | 48.156% | -0.9% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 10 | 37.224% | 20.8% |
| 4 | Texas Christian | 7 | 37.026% | -8.6% |
| 5 | Florida State | 14 | 21.243% | 6.5% |
| 6 | Georgia | 5 | 20.862% | -6.6% |
| 7 | Michigan State | 16 | 18.962% | 2.4% |
| 8 | Southern California | 8 | 18.571% | 9.6% |
| 9 | UCLA | 13 | 17.928% | 1.3% |
| 10 | Mississippi | 2 | 15.248% | 8.6% |
| 11 | Oregon | 17 | 12.095% | -5.0% |
| 12 | Texas A&M | 6 | 11.887% | 1.8% |
| 13 | Louisiana State | 4 | 11.511% | -6.6% |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 12 | 10.097% | -0.4% |
| 15 | Tennessee | 11 | 7.582% | 0.2% |
| 16 | Clemson | 22 | 5.321% | -5.1% |
| 17 | Alabama | 9 | 5.050% | 1.4% |
| 18 | West Virginia | 20 | 4.410% | 3.5% |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 35 | 2.407% | -5.0% |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 24 | 1.833% | -0.1% |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 21 | 1.736% | 1.0% |
| 22 | North Carolina State | 42 | 1.725% | -0.4% |
| 23 | Florida | 18 | 1.515% | 1.0% |
| 24 | Miami (FL) | 27 | 1.430% | -0.1% |
| 25 | Arkansas | 15 | 1.313% | -1.6% |
| 26 | Boise State | 37 | 1.245% | -1.1% |
| 27 | Northwestern | 46 | 0.987% | 0.9% |
| 28 | Virginia Tech | 28 | 0.888% | -2.7% |
| 29 | Iowa | 58 | 0.766% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Duke | 51 | 0.747% | 0.6% |
| 31 | Auburn | 19 | 0.650% | -0.3% |
| 32 | Utah | 34 | 0.644% | 0.5% |
| 33 | California | 25 | 0.592% | 0.4% |
| 34 | North Carolina | 33 | 0.540% | -4.3% |
| 35 | Appalachian State | 61 | 0.521% | 0.3% |
| 36 | Arizona | 41 | 0.468% | -1.1% |
| 37 | Marshall | 60 | 0.421% | 0.1% |
| 38 | Stanford | 23 | 0.346% | -6.7% |
| 39 | Michigan | 29 | 0.341% | -2.1% |
| 40 | Missouri | 32 | 0.339% | -0.7% |
| 41 | Louisville | 38 | 0.297% | -0.4% |
| 42 | Temple | 50 | 0.245% | 0.2% |
| 43 | Illinois | 49 | 0.236% | 0.2% |
| 44 | Kansas State | 40 | 0.175% | -0.2% |
| 45 | Cincinnati | 55 | 0.168% | -0.3% |
| 46 | Arizona State | 30 | 0.116% | -1.5% |
| 47 | Mississippi State | 26 | 0.094% | 0.0% |
| 48 | South Carolina | 31 | 0.077% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Nebraska | 44 | 0.075% | -1.4% |
| 50 | Louisiana Tech | 56 | 0.074% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Pittsburgh | 54 | 0.071% | -0.7% |
| 52 | Penn State | 43 | 0.070% | -2.2% |
| 53 | Memphis | 57 | 0.069% | 0.1% |
| 54 | Kentucky | 47 | 0.055% | -0.1% |
| 55 | Ohio | 74 | 0.044% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Texas Tech | 39 | 0.044% | -0.1% |
| 57 | Minnesota | 48 | 0.044% | -0.1% |
| 58 | Brigham Young | 45 | 0.028% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Western Kentucky | 59 | 0.026% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Rutgers | 69 | 0.021% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Houston | 75 | 0.018% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Toledo | 68 | 0.012% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Texas | 36 | 0.008% | -0.5% |
| 64 | Maryland | 65 | 0.008% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Navy | 81 | 0.005% | 0.0% |
| 66 | Washington | 52 | 0.005% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Middle Tennessee State | 67 | 0.005% | 0.0% |
| 68 | San Jose State | 72 | 0.003% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Virginia | 53 | 0.003% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Purdue | 66 | 0.003% | 0.0% |
| 71 | Syracuse | 70 | 0.002% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Colorado State | 95 | 0.002% | 0.0% |
| 73 | San Diego State | 79 | 0.002% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Florida International | 86 | 0.002% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Indiana | 76 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Boston College | 73 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 77 | Wake Forest | 85 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Colorado | 71 | 0.001% | 0.0% |
| 79 | Oregon State | 92 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Iowa State | 64 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 81 | Washington State | 87 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 82 | Kansas | 109 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 83 | Vanderbilt | 62 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 84 | Utah State | 84 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 85 | East Carolina | 94 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 86 | Rice | 88 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 87 | Northern Illinois | 83 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 88 | Air Force | 82 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 89 | Nevada | 107 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 90 | Ball State | 89 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 91 | Fresno State | 105 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 92 | Hawaii | 99 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 93 | Old Dominion | 106 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 94 | South Alabama | 128 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 95 | New Mexico | 93 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 96 | Buffalo | 108 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 97 | North Texas | 111 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 98 | Massachusetts | 97 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 99 | Miami (OH) | 117 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 100 | South Florida | 90 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 101 | Tulsa | 101 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 102 | Connecticut | 114 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
| 103 | UNC Charlotte | 119 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
A couple of notes:
1. Everything is the same from the previous rankings. I am still using ESPN's FPI as the input, and I am still using the 40% loss probability for championship games (which is probably too high for Ohio State, but oh well), and I am still using the same methodology to tie win-loss records to playoff likelihood.
2. I spent a couple of paragraphs talking about the one final adjustment I had to make because the playoff teams only summed to 2.5. I still had to make that adjustment this week, but now the raw number of playoff teams summed to 2.9. I am guessing that this is because the results of Week 1 did enough to get FPI to separate out the great teams from the bad ones a little bit more. #1 and #25 in the rankings are now separated by 15 points instead of 13.7, so there's evidence to back up that explanation.*
*Longer explanation: there are two sources of expected variance from preseason expectations. One is randomness, which probably hasn't been reduced much after a weekend of FCS games. The other is uncertainty about which teams are the best. This uncertainty is probably lower due to the results of the first week of games, hence the slightly bigger spread in team ratings in FPI.
3. I'll be subtracting teams from the ratings when they no longer "qualify." That is, if a major conference team loses its third game, or any other team loses its first, I will eliminate them from contention. As I noted in the preview post, no such teams has ever finished in the top four of the BCS or the playoff rankings. If this changes, then so will I. For now, we wave goodbye to the following: Central Florida, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Texas-El Paso, Texas State, Akron, Louisiana-Monroe, Bowling Green State, Wyoming, Florida Atlantic, Tulane, Texas-San Antonio, Southern Mississippi, Army, Kent State, Idaho, Troy, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico State, Georgia State, Southern Methodist, Eastern Michigan. Sorry guys.
4. Ohio State moves up to 73% after a convincing win. I was a little worried that they might approach or even top 100% because of the adjustment factor mentioned in the last paragraph. I'm a little less worried now because of the spreading-out and because Ohio State looks so good that they would deserve it.
5. Hey look, my team is the biggest mover of the week, more than doubling their playoff odds, and moving all the way up to third. I guess quadrupling up a decent (?) team in yards is a good thing.
6. TCU's lackluster effort makes them the biggest faller, although they still reside comfortably in the top four. The next two biggest drops belong to Georgia and LSU. As far as I can tell, the main reason is just subtle changes in the ratings of their respective SEC gauntlets. It's going to be a fun year in the south.
7. Conference playoff likelihoods from this week remain about the same, with the only big change being Notre Dame and its weird friends overtaking the ACC (hey, isn't that Notre Dame's conference?):
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| Big 12 | 1.017 |
| Big 10 | 0.972 |
| SEC | 0.762 |
| Pac 12 | 0.508 |
| Independent | 0.373 |
| ACC | 0.340 |
| Mountain West | 0.013 |
| CUSA | 0.005 |
| Sun Belt | 0.005 |
| American | 0.005 |
| MAC | 0.001 |
Week 2 Preview
One bonus feature I plan on doing is finding the top ten games for the coming weekend via the same methodology I used in the preview post. The one difference is that I am adjusting the formula slightly to account for the number of losses a team has. This shouldn't change things too much, but it will likely favor games involving undefeated teams as the season progresses.
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Michigan State | Oregon | 59.8% | 0.049 |
| Tennessee | Oklahoma | 59.8% | 0.030 |
| Virginia | Notre Dame | 14.0% | 0.017 |
| Mississippi State | LSU | 23.4% | 0.009 |
| Vanderbilt | Georgia | 7.9% | 0.005 |
| Clemson | Appalachain St. | 87.3% | 0.004 |
| Ohio State | Hawai'i | 99.0% | 0.002 |
| Florida State | South Florida | 96.6% | 0.002 |
| BYU | Boise State | 49.7% | 0.002 |
| Baylor | Lamar | 99.0% | 0.002 |
Welcome to the only Week 2 preview featuring Lamar. Feel free to replace that with Williams/Halep, should they both win tomorrow. Or El Assico if they don't. The inclusion of several likely blowouts indicates that Week 2 is pretty thin in quality, but it does still surpass Week 4 in terms of overall impact, due to the fantastic pair of games at the head of the list.
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