Thursday, December 11, 2014

Top TV of 2014

As 2014 comes to an end, it is once again time to reflect on everything I've watched over the course of the year.  I can confirm that even if the "golden age" of the aughts is dead, television still has a lot, if not more, to offer.  For the second year, I am doing a massive write-up of my top 25 shows, primarily because I can.  While there are certainly some similarities to last year's post, this is most certainly not a repeat.  Of the top 11 shows from last year's list, only one remains in the top 25 (six are no longer on the air, three fell off of the list, and one took the year off).  This not only gives me an opportunity to write about a bunch of new shows, but it also gives me the chance to take a slightly different angle on a bunch of returning favorites.  As you might expect, I try to balance between that which I find both objectively and subjectively* great about various programs, so I would hope that this list has some value for others, while still being true to what I like.

*If you want to read more about the philosophy behind such a practice, this is great defense of how rankings like this are inherently personal.

A list of one's best shows is semi-meaningless without an idea of what precisely the writer has watched, so let's go through the runners-up.  If a show isn't mentioned at some point in this post, that means I didn't watch it.  Yes, I know there's some good stuff out there I missed, but such is life.

Shows that took the year off

I'm looking forward to 2015, when we'll get new seasons of shows that have made my list in the past: It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Children's Hospital, and The Returned.  We're also getting some more Top of the Lake at some point, so that is cool, even if the original run ended at about the perfect point.

Shows that weren't close to making the list

Top Chef is still among the class of the reality/competition world, but due largely to its age and the accompanying feeling that we've already seen all this before, no longer feels as essential as it once did.  How I Met Your Mother was great when the mother was involved (particularly in one of the show's best-ever eps "How Your Mother Met Me").  The rest was...not so great (although I don't think the ending was as bad as others do).  The Red Road squandered both a potentially interesting story and Jason Momoa.  Martin Henderson's turn as a police officer might have been the most boring and meaningless character/actor pairing of the year.

The first couple episodes of Blackish seemed nice enough, but there wasn't enough there for me to keep watching.  Archer and The League continued to do their respective things well, but weren't really close to the comedies that ended up on the list.  24 returned to the air pretty much like it never left.  The shorter season was clearly a help, and there legitimately great moments, but it fell into a lot of the same traps that the lesser seasons of the show succumbed to.  Finally, The Bridge opened its second season to a great deal of acclaim, but never really worked for me.  The overall idea of the show (The Wire on the border) was worthy of praise, but none of the execution came together as it has in other prestige dramas.  I could write a much longer blurb on my specific complaints about the show, but I'd rather spend my time talking about what I liked.

Shows that were close to making the list

2014 was a banner year for comedy on television.  As a result, some really good shows ended up on the cutting floor of this post.  Girls had some great episodes in its third season (particularly the ones that focused on Hannah, such as "Flo"), but some characters' stories/journeys were a little thin, leading to a less fulfilling whole than previous years.  New Girl emerged from its creative funk in season three to be the same wacky show we once knew.  Brooklyn 99 grew up a bit plot-wise and avoided some of the tropes that hurt the show in the early going.  While it still might get there, it's not nearly as funny or charming as its older sister, Parks and Recreation (there's also the issue of completely glossing over any real-world issues, which I think Parks handled better).  Married got off to a rocky start, but ended up as a nice meditation on being an adult.  Also, Paul Reiser is awesome.

It was also an amazing year for drama, so some other great shows got left out as well.  Game of Thrones continued to be the spectacle that it's always been, for better or worse.  Continuing my minor criticism of season three, the sheer number of characters and storylines stretched the show a little beyond its storytelling means.  The Affair used its dual perspectives in a lot of interesting ways, but in the end didn't seem as significant as its framing device would lead one to believe.  The Honorable Woman was a nicely reserved look at the war-torn Middle East that almost never resorted to simple answers about a clearly complex issue.  The debut season of Penny Dreadful was a tough nugget to pin down, but featured an amazing performance by Eva Green that made up for any shortcomings.  Orphan Black was similar in that Tatiana Maslany continued to shine, even as the show around her got spread a little thin due to its overly-complicated plot.  Finally, Manhattan was a nice take on both the personal and societal effects of trying to create a weapon that will supposedly and paradoxically end war (It was also the rare historical drama that didn't become obsessed with pointing out the ridiculous practices/beliefs of the past, so points for that as well).

Last, but certainly not least, are the two shows that were the toughest omissions.  Coincidentally, both used to be highly ranked, but suffered through seasons that weren't quite up to the standards of years past.  Homeland struggled through the early part of the season, falling into a lot of the same traps as the terrible third season.  Then, nearly miraculously, it recovered a lot of its goodwill with a string of episodes that, like the first season, actually addressed real, modern-day issues with the war on terror.  Most notably, Carrie and Saul's struggle to negotiate with a terrorist they failed to kill in a drone strike, showed how our present day scenario leaves us with no good choices.

Whereas the fourth season of Homeland was a return to form of sorts, the fifth season of Justified was a bit of a freefall following a creative peak.  There was a bit of a built-in excuse for the decline, with one of the most interesting new characters asking to be written off halfway through.  Even so, the story of the Crowes was a bit derivative and inferior to the villains of past seasons.  In spite of this, Justified was still worth watching, as Timothy Olyphant and Walton Goggins' performances continued to be enjoyable as hell.  Thankfully, the last couple episodes set up the upcoming final season as a final showdown between Raylan and Boyd.  I can't wait.

#25 - Community (NBC)

The re-Harmonized fifth season of Community was a walking conundrum.  On one hand, many of the episodes (such as "Cooperative Polygraphy") were every bit as unique and hilarious as the best episodes of years past.  On the other hand, the driving purpose of continuing the show post-graduation was oftentimes muddled, and this showed in the weaker episodes near the end of the season.  In spite of these imperfections, Community is still mostly the show I once loved.  The wacky antics of Greendale continue to not just be funny, but also serve the higher purpose of showing the importance of, well, a community.  Thankfully, the show's upcoming sixth season on Yahoo indicates that we won't be perishing by way of asteroid anytime soon.

#24 - Enlisted (FOX)


In a year loaded with great new comedy, Enlisted was not the funniest new program.  Nor was it the zaniest, most original, or most insightful.  The purpose of saying this, of course, is not to rag on the show....it was after all, one of my favorite shows of the year, and was very good in all of the aforementioned aspects.  The purpose instead, is to highlight what made the show special, which is its heart.  The antics of Rear D were delightful enough when taken at face value.  But when viewed through the prism of Pete's relationship with his brothers and his re-orientation to non-combat life, the show takes on an air of earnest poignancy, which is sometimes difficult to find in the era of sarcasm and irony.  It's a shame we'll only see 13 episodes of this show, but at least it went out on a high note.

#23 - Shameless (Showtime)

The lack of guidelines on the differences between Emmy categories has long led to silly situations.  Perhaps none have better shone the light on the ridiculousness of the process than the fourth season of Shameless.  The show turned in its best and most dramatic season to date, largely because it started taking its characters' problems more seriously.  In spite of this, the creators decided to start submitting the show in the comedy categories (the show does still retains much of its humor, but I would say it definitely falls on the drama side of the spectrum now).  While that gambit didn't result in an Emmy haul, it doesn't really matter as the Gallagher's tale of poverty-stricken perseverance is a fantastic story regardless.   Fiona's fall from grace, Lip's balancing of school with the sense of responsibility he feels for his family, and Ian's struggle to be himself all made for one of the most diverse and real dramas of 2014.  While the show can be rough around the edges (like its protagonists), it's got a uniqueness and tenderness that make it worthy of its place on this list.

#22 - Masters of Sex (Showtime)

Of all the shows that appear in both this list and last year's list, Masters of Sex is the one show where last year's capsule could be lifted nearly verbatim.  Sure, the show did some things differently in its second season, most notably leaping forward a few years through the midseason episode "Asterion."  That said, the same dichotomy remains: While the parts of the show focusing on the study and the relationship of Bill and Virginia* are among the best on TV, the other plot lines range from interesting but strained (Libby's transformation into a civil rights activist) to just plain dull (the whole Cal-o-Metric plot).  Whereas the superior Mad Men has typically let the pertinent issues of the time reveal themselves naturally through the actions of its characters**, Masters of Sex oftentimes feels like it's doing the opposite, and letting the idea of the plot drive the story.  Given all that creator Michelle Ashford has on her plate, Masters is still quite the accomplishment (this interview nicely summarizes both the internal pressures of staying true to the story as well as the external pressures of writing and shooting on a tight timeline).  Here's hoping that future seasons focus more on the strengths and trim the weaknesses.

*The third episode of the season "The Fight" is one of the best episodes of anything this year, largely because it's a so-called bottle episode that focuses on the main characters.

**Besides being more honest to the characters, this also acts as a more sly and subtle commentary on the issues.  The civil rights movement is largely in the background for the characters of Mad Men, which is to me more insightful than pushing it to the forefront in Masters of Sex.

#21 - Parks and Recreation (NBC)

Parks and Recreation remains one of the funniest and warmest programs on television.  If you've watched five minutes of the show, you already know this.  What's even more remarkable is how it is able to remain so fundamentally nice and yet subvert expectations all at the same time.  The main subversion in the back half of season six (the only episodes that aired in 2014) concerned the news that Leslie was pregnant with triplets, and the subsequent worry by some that this would come to fully define her character.  Because the show is above silly worries like that, it took just one week for that idea to be squashed, with the fantastic flash forward at the end of the finale showing Leslie, pardon the cliché, "having it all."  This isn't to say we shouldn't examine the themes present in the show, but time and time again the show has proven to be adept at treating its characters with dignity and respect.  Well, except for Jerry.

#20 - Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

The second season of OITNB was a bit of a sprawling mess, but I mean that in the best possible way.  While most shows focus on a smaller set of characters in a less precarious situation, OITNB is obviously very different.  In light of that, the seemingly chaotic nature of the show fits its mission well.  What elevates the chaos to greatness is how the show is still able to focus on individual characters and give them stories worth caring about.  When we see the difficult situations that Taystee and Poussey and Caputo (among others) find themselves in, we fully understand the weight of the decisions they have to make, largely because of the precise detail put into the backstories of the characters.  That that level of detail works across such a large ensemble is a testament to the quality of the show and the vision of creator Jenji Kohan.  That the details of the prison are unrealistic is mostly irrelevant; what's actually important is how the show is able to portray the fundamental goodness of humanity in a way that few other works are.

#19 - Louie (FX)

When it was announced that the fourth season of Louie wouldn't premiere until 2014 (putting almost two years between air dates), it seemed like a good idea.  Since Louis CK basically does everything that goes into making the show, it made a lot of sense that slight downturn in quality of season three was a result of some degree of burnout.  The question then is, did this strategy work?  I would answer with an inconclusive "sort of."

The fourth season of Louie didn't break many new grounds comedically.  The best laughs from the series still reside in the first season (although fake hurricane news reports are pretty funny, too).  I also think that the most emotionally resonant half-hours come from past episodes like "Eddie" and "Duckling" in the second season.  Where season four was unique and fascinating was in its structure, particularly with the six-part "Elevator."  In that saga (or what passes for a saga in the Louie universe), the show interweaved the complex topics of raising children and forming relationships by focusing on the central role than communication plays in almost all human endeavors.  And of course, it was still quite funny, with Charles Grodin's world-weary physician providing most of the laughs.  Not everything from this season worked (in particular, the embiggined "In the Woods" about Louie's childhood seemed a touch overlong and empty), but regardless, Louis CK continues to push the boundaries of what great television can be.

#18 - You're the Worst (FXX)

The idea of a show featuring terrible people is far from novel in today's TV.  Seinfeld and It's Always Sunny are the modern exemplars of such programming, but one can trace DNA from those shows back to earlier hits like All in the Family and beyond.  What is relatively novel is taking the time to break these terrible people down into the complex beings they are, and then raising some questions: Could these people possibly be meant for each other?  Are they really even "terrible" people, or just people who need others to become who they want to bea?  In its debut season, You're the Worst did all of this with aplomb.  The show helped to redefine relationships on TV by creating a likable but flawed pairing in Jimmy and Gretchen that, while sometimes exaggerated for comedic effect, felt more real than most couples we've seen before.  Add in legitimately compelling sidekicks with real stories of their own*, and you have yourself one of the most refreshingly honest (and hilarious!) shows to debut in some time.

*Between Pete on Enlisted and Edgar on this show, it was a good year for subtle, realistic depictions of PTSD in television comedies.

#17 - Looking (HBO)

This capsule is a touch spoilery, so just go watch the show first.  It'll be worth it.

Through seven episodes of the freshman series Looking, I quite enjoyed the glimpse into the lives of three friends, but didn't think much else of it.  The finale was a different animal, bringing all of the characters' storylines to a tipping point, yet in a reserved fashion befitting of the way life actually occurs.  In particular, Patrick's story comes to a bittersweet end, with Richie breaking up with him on his apartment steps (the way Jonathan Groff appears sad yet secretly relieved - in light of his fling with his boss - is fantastic).  All of this payoff clearly signals the presence of an overall vision behind Looking, and that the creators know how to craft a story that serves its characters, rather than the other way around.

#16 - Veep (HBO)

A lot happened this season on Veep.  Selina had an affair with her personal trainer (Chris Meloni) and briefly included him on her staff.  Jonah started his own Washington insider blog, and of course, it didn't go well.  Oh, and Selina's going to become president (get excited!)   What makes Veep great though, is that none of that really matters.  I say that because no matter what's happening in the world of the show, it manages to consistently nail its hilarious take on the cynical, mile-a-minute world of politics, which is what I'm assuming most of the audience watches the show for.  As long as Selina and her team have any sort of power in Washington, I see no reason that Veep won't continue to be one of the funniest shows on television.


#15 - The Leftovers (HBO)


Unlike many others I've talked with, I've never had a problem falling asleep directly after watching something scary or disturbing.  I can watch a particularly bloody episode of Hannibal and go right to bed (I rarely dream about recent happenings, so that helps).  This all changed when I watched "Two Boats and a Helicopter," the bottle-ish third episode of The Leftovers.  The episode in question focused on the town reverend, and his journey following the mysterious disappearance of 2% of the world's population.  While the story piles the dramatic misfortune on a little heavy, the core theme of despair the hour cuts through like a knife, as the reverend's faith in his God and his community are met with apathy and outright malice.

Why did this, of all things, keep me up after watching it?  In short, it's because the show succeeds at being an unrelenting portrait of depression by creating an all-encompassing aura of despair that's impossible to ignore.  While this was too much for some critics, I found that it avoided being pure emotional torture porn by striking just the right balance.  Perhaps the best example of this was one of 2014's best episodes from any show, "Guest".*  In it, Carrie Coon's character takes a journey to New York to attend a conference related to the departure.  Over the course of the hour, we grow to understand her frustration and sadness at losing her family, and how it leads to her current inability to fully function in the world.  And yet, the end of the episode provides a glimmer of hope that there are other people in the world who care and want her to be better.  This same pattern plays out in other character's stories as well, showing the show's belief that the ultimate solution to sadness is the knowledge that others are in the same predicament, and that true loving connections are possible, even in the face of grief and loss.

*For giggles, here's a quick top five episodes of the year:
1. "Guest" - The Leftovers
2. "Mizumono" - Hannibal
3. "The Fight" - Masters of Sex
4. "The Strategy" - Mad Men
5. "Alive Day" - Enlisted

#14 - Silicon Valley (HBO)

Like most comedies on this list, Silicon Valley is absolutely hilarious.  Between the late Christopher Evan Welch's performance as eccentric investor Peter Gregory, or the members of Pied Piper figuring out the best way to....let's say "stimulate" an auditorium full of men, Silicon Valley might have had as many laugh out loud minutes as any show in 2014.  That said, what raises the show a level (and ultimately puts it this high on my list) is the story's commitment to verisimilitude.  Sure, there are a lot of wacky, exaggerated antics, but at its heart, Silicon Valley is a show that tackles head-on all of the struggles of starting a new venture in a cutthroat industry.  The problems that Pied Piper faces are rarely easily explained away, and are only ultimately resolved in the finale when Thomas Middleditch's character does the hard work to make their algorithm superior.  The show even went as far as to work with a Stanford professor to create a brand new metric for evaluating the effectiveness of said algorithm.  This commitment to a real plot in an area rarely examined on television makes Silicon Valley one of my favorite new shows of the year.

#13 - True Detective (HBO)

Even thought there were ten whole months after the finale for something to surpass it, no show in 2014 came anywhere close to inciting the same level of debate and disagreement* as did True Detective.  While some were captivated by the mystery and the foreboding sense of doom, others decried the show's misogyny.  Others still, liked the show overall, but were let down by an ending that was a little more straightforward than one might have expected.  In the end, a show as big and with as many things to say as True Detective is going to indubitably be about many different things.  While the show is absolutely worthy of the lengthy discussion of its many aspects in that link, I wanted to focus on a slightly different aspect of the "good vs. evil" aspect that MZS highlights first.  Beware: spoilers ahead.

*The best part of the debate is that I can totally understand and agree with where both "sides" are coming from.  I found both praises and pans to be well-reasoned and enlighenting.  No show this year did more to demonstrate the subjectivity of how one enjoys TV.

When Rust tells Marty that "the light is winning" in the final scene of the finale, it may seem like a rather corny line*, but it just about perfectly sums up the journey that those characters have taken.  Throughout the show, they have encountered darkness in their lives and projected it back out onto those around them.  In many ways, that recycling of anger is perhaps not quite necessary, but is at least somewhat inevitable.  We need detectives to do their jobs in order to help protect us.  At the same time, it isn't easy for most people to process the vileness encountered in such a line of work in a healthy and reasonable manner.  In that way, the struggle between light and dark gets at one of the most fascinating themes of the show to me:  That we as a society need people to dedicate their lives to working towards the common good in spite of the toll it will take on those individuals.  The payoff for their work may not be absolute and immediate (after all "The Yellow King" was just one evil force in a world full of them), but if we can recognize the gradual progress of society over time, then we can fully appreciate all the good that is done by imperfect beings like Rust and Marty.  When you cut through the occult mythology and everything else in True Detective, you end up with a simple story that is rarely told in this manner.

*Corniness/earnestness actually fits pretty well with Rust's character, so it actually works pretty well

#12 - The Knick (Cinemax)

Much like Manhattan and Masters of Sex, The Knick is about the thrill of discovery and the toll it takes on those involved.  I welcome the fact that these shows have chosen to focus on the pursuit of knowledge, as I find it quite fascinating.  That said, these shows all struggle a bit when focusing on the other parts of their character's lives, which keeps them from being ranked higher.  There are certainly still other strengths: Manhattan is probably the best of the three at creating fully realized characters, and the central relationship of Masters drives the show to emotional heights surpassing the other shows.  Where The Knick excels, and what ultimately pushes it higher on the list, is the integration of its superior construction and its devotion to a seemingly exaggerated past.  The first part of that pair is reasonably obvious, with Oscar-winning Steven Soderbergh doing some of the best work of 2014 on any screen, small or large.

The second part (the treatment of the past) is a little more interesting, and deviates a bit from other period shows.  It's commonly said that setting something in the past allows one to deal with pertinent modern issues (racism, misogyny) from a comfortable distance.  This approach often leads to situations where something outrageous happens to emphasize the point being made.  In general, I prefer works that avoid such black and white treatments.  However, The Knick actually makes such tactics interesting by being so brazen in the depiction of its 1900, that the self awareness of the show is on full display.  By shoving our faces in the questionable ethics of, among other things, the medical practices of the time, the show forces the viewer to confront how a basically decent human race could do such things.  Whereas the typical reactions to such things on lesser shows is along the lines of "boy, people were overtly racist back then," The Knick encourages a deeper rumination through its exquisitely constructed universe.

#11 - Bob's Burgers (Fox)

Here's an entry on the list that is such a well-oiled institution, that I'm not sure what there is left to say about it (other than "it's awesome").  While Bob's Burgers is ever-so-slightly removed from its creative peak, it's still one of the warmest, funniest half-hours on television.  The Belchers remain a wonderfully odd clan, surrounded by a beach-side community that only one-ups them in terms of wackiness.  I would normally worry about a show in its fifth season running out of ideas, but when you come up with ideas as ridiculous as a Die Hard/Working Girl smash-up musical (aptly titled "Work Hard or Die Trying, Girl"), then there are truly no limits on how long the show can run at a high level of quality.

#10 - Olive Kitteridge (HBO)

I mentioned a couple of great performances from leading women in the honorable mention section.  As good as those were, I don't think anyone, man or woman, surpassed Frances McDormand's work as the title character of Olive Kitteridge.*  In the hands of a lesser actress, it would be easy to dismiss the part as too much of a one note domestic villain (it would actually be surprisingly easy to transform the script into a sitcom, without making too many changes).  Instead, McDormand is able to imbue the character with a sense of regret and sadness over those who she has wronged, which paints Olive as more sympathetic than one would observe at first blush.  Because of that, I see Olive Kitteridge as a bit of a welcome antidote to the wave of unapologetic anti-heroes that have populated the screen in the past fifteen years.  If we're looking to nitpick, then one could argue that the mini-series format didn't best serve the material, but I mostly disagree.  Each supporting character in Olive's life got just enough screen time to portray their story and the effect Olive had on it without removing the focus from our main character.  In total, Olive Kitteridge was a well-observed story of a life lived well, but with regret; that is to say, a normal life.

*And here's my top performances of the year
1. Frances McDormand - Olive Kitteridge
2. Eva Green - Penny Dreadful
3. Tatiana Maslany - Orphan Black
4. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective
5. Jeffrey Tambor - Transparent

#9 - Mad Men (AMC)

The common complaint concerning the previous season of Mad Men was that it seemed a bit repetitive and boring.  I disagree with that line of thinking overall, but can at least understand the sentiment; Don's problems with his second marriage and issues at work resembled many of the same beats from earlier seasons.  The good news for people of all opinions is that the machinations of the back half of the series paid off in droves in the excellent seventh season, which was among the best work the show has done.  Don's journey to a dark place resulted in legitimate change in the character, as he accepted his failures and worked to better himself and become an actual decent human being.  Nowhere was this self-improvement (and its positive affect on those around him) more apparent than in his support of Peggy as she led the successful Burger Chef campaign in the wonderful episodes "The Strategy" and "Waterloo."  By crafting a real and meaningful redemption ark for Don, Matthew Weiner is closing out the anti-hero era of drama in a unique way.  In paralleling the societal change of the sixties with the personal change of our main character, Mad Men is showing us just what such transformations can mean to the world and those that occupy it.

#8 - The Americans (FX)

When I placed the debut season of The Americans in the middle of last year's list, I basically wrote that I liked but didn't love the show.  While I included some reasons for this, the true reason didn't become clear until the fantastic second season premiere.  In that episode, we are introduced to a fellow family of espionage that might as well be a clone of the Jennings.  When three-quarters of that family is killed following a job, Philip and Elizabeth rightfully panic, wondering if the same thing can happen to them.  This imbues their actions for the remainder of the season with a sense of personal dread; the cost of failure is no longer just the downfall of their cause, but the downfall of their lives.  This acts to further personalize the conflict of the Cold War to a even higher degree than the first season.  The Americans made a true leap to greatness in its second season and I can't wait to see what comes next.

#7 - Rectify (Sundance)

The first season of Rectify was a beautiful six episode journey through the first steps of Daniel Holden's reintroduction to society.  Upon a re-watch* prior to the start of season two, I had legitimate concerns about where the continuation of the story would take us, and if it was necessary to its central themes.  Boy, was that silly.  The lengthier second season picks up where it left off, which allows time for Daniel's subconscious to reflect on the events that led him here, and also helps build out the supporting cast's story to create a world worth exploring.  Whether the show is following Daniel through his encounters with increasingly odd yet enlightening strangers or showing us his family trying to return to some semblance of normalcy, Rectify paints a non-judgmental picture of small town life that isn't often seen on television.  A mixture of profound serenity and the cruelty of real life combine to make Rectify one of the best things on the air.

*It's on Netflix.  It's just six episodes.  Watch it now.

#6 - Broad City (Comedy Central)


As you can probably tell by now, there were a lot of great comedy premieres in 2014.  While Broad City wasn't quite my favorite of the list (so close though!), it's almost certainly the most fresh and welcome voice.  In a way, it's the spiritual sibling of Looking, in that both shows feature people from groups other than your typical set of straight white males, without belittling or stereotyping its leads in the slightest.  Of course, it's also completely different in that its often zany, sometimes non-sequitir-laden comedy creates a semi-surreal world that is just delightful.  Whether Ilana is blowing off work to blow off another job to hang out with Judith Light the dog, or Abbi is busy cleaning up an unprecented pube situation in her gym's bathroom, Broad City is never short on genuinely unique hilarity.

#5 - Last Week Tonight (HBO)

When Last Week Tonight was first announced, it seemed a bit like overkill.  Sure, John Oliver was fantastic as a summer replacement on The Daily Show, but did we really need another show in the same vein?  As it turns out, it took all of one episode for us to realize that we most certainly did.  Whereas the opening segment on The Daily Show typically leaves the viewer with a faint sense that reason in our political discourse is doomed, Last Week Tonight providers a faint shimmer of hope with its (admittedly silly) calls to action.  Combining those hints of activism with a half hour of content that is more well researched than many academic papers creates a truly unique outlet that is perhaps the most vital viewing experience on the air today.  That may seem strange to say considering the show has had bits on space geckos and a fake political commercial involving a lot of flaccid elderly penis.  But if the only way to fight the silliness of modern times is with more silliness, then Last Week Tonight is quite the weapon.

#4 - Fargo (FX)

The first season of the anthology series Fargo is a bit of a different beast from most of the dramas on this list.  Instead of being primarily concerned with a particular theme and then constructing a mood/feel based on that (Hannibal is probably the best example of this), Fargo is explicitly based on the Coen Brother's oeuvre.  This isn't to say that there aren't weighty themes running through the show: the ideas of fate and consequences to one's actions haunt the series as much as the cold, barren landscape.  That said, what I'll remember most about this fantastic season are the various ways creator Noah Hawley took the work of others and made it his own.  The gorgeous cinematography, the dark humor, the way each episode seemingly crept into existence rather than simply beginning:  These were all hallmarks of a show that felt familiar, but also had a unique voice worth listening to.

#3 - Transparent (Amazon)

Transparent is, on its surface, a story about a transgender woman transitioning late in life (I mean, it's right there in the title after all).  That part of the show is fantastically done, telling a story that is both sympathetic to the struggle of such a process while also not letting Maura off the hook for her shortcomings.*  What elevates this to a truly great show is that it is so much more than that one thing, though.  The tribulations of each member of the fully realized Pfefferman clan touch on almost every aspect of modern life.  Family dynamics color every interaction between the main cast, showing how past experiences shape new ones.  The character's problems with intimacy (both too much and too little) highlight the difficulty of making and maintaining relationships.  And finally (circling back to Maura's transition), the inability of the characters to fully admit and understand who and what they are underscores the main themes of the show perfectly:  While there are interpersonal and societal issues aplenty in our world, the fundamental issue for many is simply not understanding themselves.  By examining the gradual process of self-actualization between this group of dynamically different yet clearly related people, Transparent is able to achieve so much, and with such a deft touch.

*Making Maura a real person, with all of the warts that come with that, makes this a far more enlightening show than if she were painted as some sort of transgender superhero.  

#2 - Hannibal (NBC)


At first blush, it would be easy to write off Hannibal as just another entry in the anthology of ultra-violence propagated on modern television.  However, doing so would be very, very wrong.  The visceral, gory, yet beautiful way violent acts are depicted,* as well as the consistent mastery of tone, are signs of far superior quality over dreck like Stalker or The Following, but the reasons for Hannibal's brilliance go beyond that.  What makes it one of the best shows on television is the very way it treats its subject matter.  Rather than playing violent acts as cheap thrills or tone-deaf plot points, Hannibal uses its antagonist's transgressions (as well as the side tale of the Vergers) as a portal into the very nature of how evil shapes humanity.  Hannibal's second season elevated this to new heights, as the quest to capture Hannibal ensnared every character, leading to an unforgettable conclusion.  Add in continually great acting from Hugh Dancy and Mads Mikkelsen (among others), and a compelling season-long plot, and you have yourself the best drama of 2014.

*There is constant fascination by fans of the show that this exists on network television.  I actually think that working within those constraints makes the show stronger, as it needs to convey some of things which it can't show through the character's reactions (ie. Mason Verger's face)

#1 - Review (Comedy Central)

"Life.  It's literally all we have.  But is it any good?" - Forrest MacNeil

Review takes the top spot on my list in large part because it is damn funny.  When the show isn't challenging itself to pixelate as much of the screen as possible during an orgy, it's forcing our protagonist to drown his sorrow in a table full of pancakes.  Whether Forrest was taking his father-in-law on a fateful mission to space, becoming an overt racist, or simply saying nothing but "there all is aching," there was never a shortage of amazing laughs.  Whatever part of our society Andy Daly and friends felt like lampooning in a given week was taken to task in the most enjoyable manner possible.

All that said, mere hilarity (even of the highest order) isn't enough to ascend to the peak of television in 2014.  What makes Review the very best television has to offer is the way it uses its concept not just for humor, but to tie together the endeavor into a whole that is greater than its parts.  A show about someone dedicating himself to certain things each week is funny; a show about the journey of that man throughout his conquest to effectively review his life is brilliant.  Such a construct allows for subtle commentary on not only the fickle nature of evaluating things, but the very impetus behind work and life itself.  The end of the season can be seen as the intersection of those two themes, as leading an overly-examined life takes Forrest to a place of some enlightenment such that he rejects the occupation that literally tells him what to do with his life.  It's probably a fundamentally silly exercise to over-analyze and ascribe too much to a comedy show, but as the very subject of the show itself is over-analyzation, I think it's entirely appropriate.  In the end, that very interplay between the absurd and the profound is what makes Review the finest show of the year.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Top Beer of 2014

2014 was a notable year for me for many reasons.  One of the reasons for this was that I was able to have what will probably be the best year of beer-related adventures in my life.  In addition to the trips to San Diego and Vermont that I previously wrote about, I made detours on other trips to visit places like 3 Floyds (for the umpteenth time) and Toppling Goliath.  Because of my unprecedented ability to try so many good beers, I thought I would gather together my thoughts on what is likely a one-time post, concerning the very best beer that I had this year.

Upon reviewing everything that was new to me this year, the number 16 seemed like both an appropriate length for the list, as well as a reasonable cut-off between the great and the really great.  Furthermore, to avoid repetition, I'm going to impose a couple of limitations.  First, I am only counting beers that I first consumed during the 2014 calendar year.  This means there won't be any long-time favorites like Sculpin, Founder's Harvest Ale, or Blackheart on the list.  As a result, this becomes more of a year in review than simply a best beers list, which I feel is slightly more interesting.  Second, I will only include one beer per brewery. This will prevent me from rambling on and on about the same breweries, as much as I would love to.  I will make note of all of the beers not on the list from those breweries that received at least four stars from me at the end of each section.

Next to the name of each beer are the main statistics from the new-ish website, Beergraphs. Beergraphs uses user-entered ratings from the popular app Untappd to calculate how many "replacement" beers a beer is worth (that would be the BAR statistic).  They also use the style categorizations to measure beers against like beers (the Style+ statistic measures this around a mean of 100, with higher scores meaning a better beer).  A couple of beers without enough check-ins don't show up on their site, so those are marked as "unlisted."  If you're unsure about their methodology, the bevy of well-known beers atop the leaderboard should give you at least some faith that the rating system is useful.

Runners-up:

To give you a quick idea of how great the beers on this list are, here are the breweries/beers that were considered, but didn't make the cut:

Heady Topper - The Alchemist
Chasin' Freshies and Red Chair NWPA - Deschutes Brewery
I Hardcore You - Mikkeller and Brewdog collaboration
18th Anniversary Ale - Stone Brewing*
8 Bit Pale Ale - Tallgrass Brewing Company
Gose - Lost Nation Brewing
Cluster's Last Stand - Smuttynose Brewing Company
Nugget Nectar - Troegs Brewing Company
Simtra - Knee Deep Brewing Company
Farmer's Reserve Blackberry - Almanac Beer Co.

*Enjoy By is fairly consistent from release to release, so I don't count those as "new" beers.  If I did, they would most certainly be on the list.

There's a lot of great beers on that list, including the highest rated beer in existence, Heady Topper.  I already wrote about this in my New England post, so I won't blather on here (summary: it was good, but didn't wow me like other things from the trip did).  As happy as I would be drinking nothing but these beers, I had 16 others that were slightly more superlative.  These beers come from a remarkable 12 different states, which shows that many different regions have a lot to offer.  While most are of the IPA persuasion, there is still enough variety (both within the category and across categories) to find something uniquely interesting about each one.

#16 - Simcoe Ninja
Pipeworks Brewing Company (IL) - Double IPA - 4.19 BAR - 113 Style+

Pipeworks' sheer audacity makes them one of my most-loved breweries, but one of my favorite things about them is their focus on single-hop beers.  Single-hop ales are both a great introduction to individual hops as well as a good way to focus a beer on one idea.  This still leaves a lot of room for interpretation, as your malt selection and brewing process can lead to wide varieties of beer, so there is still merit to trying these across many different breweries as well.  I've only had two beers from Pipeworks' Ninja series, but they were both fantastic.  As Simcoe is my favorite hop (more on this later), this makes the list over the Citra version of the same beer.

Apologies to: Citra Ninja

#15 - Harvest Ale
Victory Brewing Company (PA) - American Pale Ale - 3.79 BAR - 120 Style+

Weather-wise, fall might be my least favorite season, as the slow march towards winter can sometimes be more painful than the winter itself.  Luckily for me, the blow is softened by the presence of football and wet-hopped beers.  For the uninitiated, wet-hopping commonly refers to beers that have hops added less than 24 hours after harvest (fresh-hopped beer then generally refers to a slightly longer one week window).  Since this typically captures hops as their most pungent and earthy, wet-hopped beers tend to be one-dimensional hop bombs, which I mostly love.  That said, the very best of the category tend to have a balance that make them complete beers.  Victory's Harvest Ale is one such beer, largely because it's maybe the wettest single beer I've ever had.  The grassy and earthy (and even dirt-y) notes of the hops make for a taste that is sharp and yet balanced enough to be easily drinkable.

*While we're at it, here's a list of my favorite fresh/wet hopped beers from the most recent season:

#1. Founders Harvest Ale (wet)
#2. Victory Harvest Ale (wet)
#3. Fat Heads Hop Stalker (fresh)
#4. Deschutes Chasin' Freshies (fresh)
#5. Actual Wet-Hopped Elektron (wet)
#6. Deschutes Hop Truck (wet)
#7. Sixpoint Sensi Harvest (wet)
#8. Sierra Nevada Celebration (fresh)
#9. Sierra Nevada Harvest Wet Hop IPA (wet)
#10: 3 Floyd's Broodoo (wet)

#14 - Permanent Funeral
3 Floyd's Brewing Company (IN) - Double IPA - 9.99 BAR - 122 Style+

One of the fun parts of following a brewery over the years is seeing how it evolves and changes with the times.  3 Floyd's has always been one of the very best is the industry, so change wasn't necessarily needed, but they've still continued to push themselves in new and interesting directions.  As the tendency of American IPAs has trended towards beers with more variety of fruit characteristics in the hop profile, so too has 3 Floyd's worked to make such beers (see the "apologies to" section for other examples).  Permanent Funeral is their most notable beer of its kind, with a beautifully clean taste that hides the high alcohol content well.  I don't think the beer tops some of my favorites from them, such as Gumballhead or Dreadnaught, but it's still a welcome addition to what might very well be the best beer lineup in the country.

Apologies to: Yum Yum, Space Station Middle Finger, and of course the other dozen of their beers I've had before 2014

#13 - Hi-Res
Sixpoint Brewery (NY) - Double (Triple, actually) IPA - 5.52 BAR - 112 Style+

While the last entry signifies the trend towards fruitier IPAs, this one displays another major trend: Making huger than ever, unapologetic, high-gravity beers.  What is sometimes problematic with this is that beers that turn everything up to eleven aren't always the best, as they may sacrifice nuance and creativity for the purpose of spectacle.  The hit or miss nature of the offerings at the local high-gravity beer event I attended back in January can attest directly to this.  That said, when a truly great brewery decides to make an extreme beer, they usually do a good job.  Since Sixpoint is one of my favorite breweries in existence, it only makes sense that Hi-Res was an awesome beer.  Taking all of the deliciousness of Resin and multiplying it by two made for one of my favorite beverages of the year.

Apologies to: Spice of Life - Sorachi Ace, Sensi Harvest

#12 - Wisconsin Belgian Red
New Glarus Brewing Company (WI) - Fruit Beer - 9.88 BAR - 141 Style+

As you might already know, I lived in Wisconsin for four years after college.  While I was never then quite the beer nerd I am now, the wide variety of brews available in the state helped to shape my love of beer in its infancy.  During my time there, I most certainly imbibed many different offerings from New Glarus, the state's most famous microbrewery.  Strangely enough though, I never had any of their most famous line of fruit/sour beers.  Since I made a couple trips to/through Madison this year, I ended up buying several of these.  All of them were fantastic, with a consistently sweet body matching up perfectly with the tartness of the fruit.  As the base of Wisconsin Belgian Red was all cherries, and therefore the most sour, this one just beats out the rest in my eyes.  I highly recommend trying all of them if you get a chance, as they are all wonderful.

Apologies to: Serendipity, Raspberry Tart

#11 - Pliny the Elder
Russian River Brewing Company (CA) - Double IPA - 16.7 BAR - 127 Style+

The term "West Coast IPA" has probably become overly ubiquitous in recent years.  I say "overly" because few beers that carry that moniker can live up to the example set by the platonic ideal of the category, Pliny the Elder.  I don't really have much to say about Pliny that hasn't already been said.  It's an awesome beer, and anyone who visits California (or Philly) should seek it out.











#10 - Lunch
Maine Beer Company (ME) - American IPA - 11.21 BAR - 130 Style+

Upon sampling a large selection of Maine Beer Company's offerings, I see the brewery as primarily two things.  First, they are one of the most consistently awesome breweries in existence.  While their IPAs may be somewhat more famous than the rest of their lineup, every single one of their beers is distinctive and good.  Second, they appear to have a tendency to make beer that is more subtle and understated than the hop-bombs and barrel aged beers that so many prominent craft brewers are known for.  Those two characteristics are on full display with Lunch.  Lunch has a nose full of juicy hops that rivals all the best beers in its complexity.  However, it also dials it back a touch so that the full body of the beer comes into play.  All of this makes for a beer that isn't quite as viscerally exciting as something like a Zombie Dust, but I think that's exactly the point.  By balancing everything out, Maine Beer Company is able to create beers with a timeless quality that can still excite the well-traveled drinker.

Apologies to: Zoe (the toughest exclusion, as this dark, hoppy amber is truly unique), Mo, Mean Old Tom, Another One, Peeper

#9 - What is Enlightenment?
Hill Farmstead Brewery (VT) - American Pale Ale - 7.25 BAR - 133 Style+

When given the relevant information before tasting a beer (ingredients, brewer, rating), I can generally make a pretty good guess as to what the beer will taste like.  Certain hops will deliver certain flavors, while style descriptions and other ingredients can suggest other things.  All that said, I'm not sure that anything could have prepared me for the overwhelming citrus punch featured by What is Enlightenment.  Sure, the beer features Citra hops, but I've never tasted anything with as much orange flavor that didn't actually have orange in it.  As you would expect from a Hill Farmstead brew, there is enough balance to ensure that this isn't just beer-flavored orange juice.  Due to time constraints, I didn't get a chance to actually visit the brewery during my time in Vermont, but this beer and the stunning pale ale Edward make me doubly excited to go there next time.

Apologies to: Edward

#8 pseudo Sue
Toppling Goliath Brewing (IA) - American Pale Ale - 12.83 BAR - 140 Style+

Few hops, if any, are as currently popular as Citra.  Its dynamic and citrusy flavor make it a perfect poster child for modern brewing.  While some beers (looking at you, Zombie Dust) show off the edgier characteristics of the hop, pseudo Sue goes in the opposite direction with a much gentler beer.  I am not normally a huge fan of beers that tend towards a full focus on the fruitier side of hops, but pseudo Sue is just so good at what it does that I couldn't help but love it.  Toppling Goliath seems to do just about everything well, but their most famous beer is their most famous for a reason.

Apologies to: ZeeLander

#7 Hopslam Ale
Bell's Brewery, Inc. (MI) - Double IPA - 14.42 BAR - 123 Style+

I could talk at length about how this is the most hyped beer on the list, but the mere fact that there was a local controversy called hopslamgate sums that up well enough.  In spite of all that hype, I had never actually had Hopslam before 2014's version.  While the internet tells me that past versions were a little more extreme with the hops, I didn't mind the supposedly more balanced offering that I had this year.  The hops (featuring a dry-hopping with Simcoe) sit nicely at the back of the mouth, while the notes of sweetness from the honey sit nicely at the top of the flavor profile.  I don't think Hopslam is quite as awesome as the beers at the top of the list, but it is worth pressuring your wife to go to the nearby grocery store to get a six pack because you're out of town even though she already changed into her pajamas and doesn't want to go.*

*True story

#6 Fortunate Islands
Modern Times Beer (CA) - American Pale Wheat Ale - 5.89 BAR - 124 Style+

3 Floyds' Gumballhead is generally regarded as the pre-eminent "hoppy wheat" beer with its combination of Amarillo hops and subtle wheat body.  It is one of my favorite beers in existence, and I am not alone in that opinion, as it currently resides in the very last spot on the first page of the Beergraphs leaderboard.  I've tasted a lot of new entrants into this realm over the past couple of years, and very few have come even close to matching the awesomeness of Gumballhead.

Enter Modern Times, a brewery that's only been around for a little over a year.  While everything they make is good, their entry in the hoppy wheat category is the standout for me, as it is arguably better than Gumballhead.*  Instead of all Amarillo hops, Modern Times blends Amarillo and Citra for a slightly sharper nose (don't worry though, this isn't another Citra bomb).  Additionally, the wheat takes a bit more of the center stage than it does in Gumballhead.  I can understand the argument that this is a negative for Fortunate Islands, as subtlety is often underrated.  That said, every component of this beer is so delicious that that feels like a silly complaint to me.  Fortunate Islands may never have the reach or the popularity of its predecessor, but it's every bit as deserving of praise as the best beer of its kind.

Apologies to: Black House, Blazing World

*The natural comparison to a different style of beer would be Pliny the Elder as the established categorical winner, and Enjoy By being the upstart challenger. 

#5 Sim City
Zero Gravity Brewing (VT) - American IPA - Unlisted

I talk a lot about the hops in the beers I drink.  This is as it should be as the hops are probably the most important and distinct ingredient in the majority of pale ales.  That said, it's important to remember that the best beers will not just have a delicious hop nose, but will be able to use that nose to complement the malt and yeast and create a deliciously complete beer.  Zero Gravity's Sim City is one that excels at this, balancing strong showings from both the hops and malt to make a great, balanced beer.  Part of this is due to its 100% Simcoe hop profile.  Simcoe is a hop that is both strong (meaning it won't get lost in the shuffle), but also uses it's balance of bitterness and sweetness to "play nice" with the malt profile.  Because of Simcoe's awesomeness, I generally regard it as my favorite hop.  As Sim City is probably the best single-hop Simcoe beer I have had, this slides nicely into my top five of the year.

#4 Abrasive Ale
Surly Brewing Company (MN) - Double IPA - 12.33 BAR - 124 Style+

With distribution expansion to Chicago, plus an assist from a couple of friends who used to call Minneapolis home, it was a banner year for me to sample the best Surly has to offer.  While everything I had was great, nothing came close to their most famous beer, Abrasive Ale.  Abrasive somehow uses ingredients that can at times be too sweet (oatmeal) and too bitter (Citra hops) and turns that into an insanely floral nose that is truly unlike anything I've had before.  Abrasive also maintains the balance between maximizing flavor and minimizing booziness that only the best beers manage to perfect. 

Apologies to: Pentagram, Furious, Hell, Bitter Brewer

#3 Nelson
Alpine Beer Company (CA) - American IPA - 12.93 BAR - 135 Style+

A lot of the beers that appear near the top of most "best beer" lists fit nicely into a category.  While a beer like Pliny the Elder may be the best of its kind, you can compare and contrast it with a lot of similar beers that came before and after.  That is not the case with Nelson.  While there are certainly a lot of beers with Nelson Sauvignon hops, and probably even more pale ales made with rye, I'm not sure I've ever encountered one that features both.  Even if I have tasted this other beer, I doubt that it incorporated these ingredients into a complex yet friendly beer anywhere near as well as this one.  Alpine does pretty much every kind of pale ale well, but with Nelson, they have a flagship beer that is as unique as it is delicious.  With the prolific Green Flash acquiring Alpine recently, I'm hoping I can have Nelson in my life regularly in the near future.

Apologies to: Hoppy Birthday*, Duet, Bad Boy

*This was probably the toughest exclusion, as the beer it most resembles on this list is in the top spot.  Nelson is just too awesome not to put ahead of it, though.

#2 Hop Juju
Fat Head's Brewery (OH) - Double IPA - 8.62 BAR - 121 Style+

The truly remarkable thing about hops is the variety of flavors they can impart in beer.  The taste of pine, grass, flowers, and every kind of fruit imaginable show up regularly in all different kinds of ales.  Great beers are able to focus on one of these ideas and master it.  The very best beers (like Hop Juju) however, have almost all of these flavors.  Part of this is due to the very nature of hops; like ingredients in dishes, different flavors can be emphasized when prepared a certain way or mixed with certain other ingredients.  It's quite possible to have a beer with a single hop variety that gives you complexity on its own.  That is not the case with Hop Juju. The insane pine nose likely comes from one of the traditional "C" hops (most likely Chinook), while the fruitier mid-to-after taste is probably a result of the Simcoe and Citra.  In the end, this amazing beer hits as many different notes as any beer I've ever had, and ends up in my all-time top five as a result.

Apologies to: Hop Stalker, Sunshine Daydream 

#1 Sip of Sunshine
Lawson's Finest Liquids (VT) - Double IPA - 8.29 BAR - 121 Style+


A lot of the beers I included in this list featured a wide array of superior characteristics.  Others still tended towards the sweeter side of the APA/IPA spectrum (yes, they were mostly pale ales...that's just what I drink/seek out most often).  Sip of Sunshine is not like those beers.

Sure, there are some nice fruity notes at the front of Sip, and it's overall a well-balanced beer, but it's at the top of this list for one main reason: The beautiful, un-relenting bitterness.  Hop-heads talk so much about the flavors of fruit, pine, and grass they get from beers (for good reason), that the way bitterness works to counter the relative sweetness of the malt is often glossed over.  Because of this, I love beers that are unabashed in their pursuit of reminding everyone why IPAs are IPAs.  Sip of Sunshine is my new personal flag-bearer in that department (don't worry Ruination, I haven't forgotten about you), as its taste remains fiercely on the tongue for minutes after each sip, never losing the precise flavor of the hop profile.  I wasn't able to get my hands on the more famous Double Sunshine or any of Lawson's other brews, but it's almost better that way, as Sip is pretty much perfect.  While I can't see anything topping it for a while to come, I'll continue to welcome the best efforts of the world's best brewers as I move into 2015.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

College Football at the Halfway Mark

With the college football season just slightly past the halfway point, it's time to discuss some of the storylines flying a bit under the radar. 

Florida State is more likely to lose than not

Following the Noles' controversial win over the Irish, the common theme running through the college football media is that Florida State has passed its toughest test, and will ride out the rest of its schedule easily.  However, much like when we were all worried about the top four teams all winning out in 2012, this seems like a bit of an overestimation of the superiority of the top teams.  While FSU does appear to have the best chance of winning out, it should be noted that ESPN's odds of this happening are less than one in three. 

Why this difference between popular opinion and reality? For one, Florida State hasn't been able to live up to the standard of last year's team, ranking 10th in F/+ and going just 1-6 against the spread.  Their 3-0 record in one score games* suggests that they've been a touch lucky to still be undefeated.

*On one hand, those three games came against two great teams (Clemson and ND), and one decent team (Oklahoma State with JW Walsh healthy).  On the other hand, none of them were road games.

The other factor is that their remaining schedule is surprisingly decent.  While the ACC rightfully gets maligned compared with other power conferences, Florida State's remaining conference opponents represent the better part of the conference.  Road games against Louisville (15th in F/+) and Miami (26th and climbing after a big Thursday night win) represent major tests, while BC (32nd) and Virginia (30th) shouldn't be taken lightly themselves.  While F/+ is a bit of an outlier in Massey's ratings compilation, the composite ratings still place FSU below the SEC West stronghold, and all five of the Noles' remaining opponents make the top 50.  There is certainly a decent chance that Florida State wins its second straight title with another remarkable undefeated season, but there is a far better chance that that does not happen.  You've been warned.

Auburn as a test case

As it is the first year of the playoff, there has been unending speculation concerning exactly what items will be discussed, what criteria will be most heavily weighted, and what the committee will do in certain situations.  The chatter from committee members concerning simple heuristics like conference championships and schedule intent has lessened my faith in them.  All that said, if the committee makes the correct choice with one potentially very interesting team, then it will restore much of my trust.  That team is the Auburn Tigers.

Auburn currently finds itself positioned in the top four of the aforementioned Massey composite (#4), and is also in that same range in the metrics I most commonly use (3rd in Sagarin, 5th in F/+).  Based on how they've played thus far, they are clearly in the running to be one of the four best teams. 

Unfortunately for them, their November is going to be one of the most difficult months for any team in college football history.  Having already suffered a road loss to the current #1 team (Mississippi State), Auburn must still travel to top ten teams Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama.  Even though Auburn is a great team, this insane road schedule makes it quite unlikely they will be playing for a conference championship.  It does not, however, make it unlikely that they will finish as a top four quality team.

Consider the following possibility:  Let's say Auburn loses next week at Ole Miss (thus eliminating a realistic chance at a league crown), and then goes to town on the rest of their schedule.  This scenario would put Auburn at 10-2, with a road record of 3-2 against 5 teams currently ranked in the top 11 of the AP rankings.  Additionally, decisive wins over Bama and Georgia would likely mean that their computer numbers (which in theory represent the true quality of a team) would actually go up, placing them soundly in the top four. 

If all this goes to plan,* I am all too prepared for the committee to overlook the Tigers in favor of a less-qualified conference champion.  I've heard the argument many times, most recently from The Solid Verbal, from which I paraphrase: Every team has a chance to win their division or conference and thus if they can't do that, they probably shouldn't be considered for the playoff.  The fundamental problem with this is that not every team gets the same chance to win their division.  While Ole Miss gets all of their most difficult opponents at home (and misses out on having to play Georgia), Auburn will have had to play the four best SEC teams not named Auburn, all on the road.  Even for a team as good as the Tigers, we shouldn't expect anything better than a 2-2 record from that set of games.  When and if the Rebels clinch the division title, we won't be able to say they didn't earn it, but we can definitely say that they had a bit of an easier road.**  While I have my doubts about the committee (see below), I hope they are able to appreciate a unique case like the version of the 2014 Auburn Tigers presented here.

*And if it doesn't, there will probably be another SEC West team with a similar, if less extreme case.

**If you are a top-five caliber team, you have a better chance of a successful season (going 12-0 or 11-1) playing a bunch of somewhat difficult games (road games against average teams, home games against better teams) than you do with a boom or bust schedule like Auburn's.  That's why some sort of degree of difficulty metric would have use in a situation like this.  Unfortunately...well, just read the next section.

Stats and the committee

If you follow any of the most prominent college football writers, then you've likely heard that the playoff committee recently held a mock selection exercise, much like the NCAA does yearly for the basketball tournament.  As a fan, the concept of openness and transparency is much appreciated, but it also shines a light on some of the troublesome areas to team evaluation.  Most notably, it appears that there is no firm guidance on determining strength of schedule, nor is the committee allowed to use margin of victory or any outside statistics

Obviously, this is troubling.  We live in an era where the number of people spending their free time analyzing and dissecting the game is orders of magnitude greater than at any time in the past.  Conducting perhaps the most exciting development in the sport with minimal, if any, influence from that portion of the devoted is unwise and quite frankly insulting. 

What's worse is that the more you think about this, the more you realize how problematic the whole idea of not discussing outside statistics is.  Even if discussion of these metrics won't be allowed in the room, committee members that have done their work will have almost certainly consulted some sort of outside numbers to learn more about teams.  For example, Barry Alvarez has said that he is working with a statistician at Wisconsin.  This will no doubt influence his perception of which teams are best, which will most likely factor into his contribution towards the committee's discussion.  While I admire his commitment to learning as much as he can, I also don't necessarily trust his numerical-related conclusions without examining them.  And if the committee isn't allowed to discuss outside stats, then that won't happen.  This leaves us with a set of statistics provided to the committee that isn't particularly great, the inability of the best minds to influence the discussion, and the unfettered ability of unproven and unchallenged stats to influence the proceedings of the committee.  While the "true" top four* and the committee's top four will likely overlap (perhaps a great deal), I am still a little worried about the process to which we've trusted our favorite sport.**

*Sure, any halfway stat-literate person would say that a 12-13 game schedule provides no way for us to determine a definitive top four, but we can at least weed out enough teams to make a pretty good guess.

**Still better than the later versions of the BCS "formula," probably.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

College Football 2014: Getting Excited About the Future

The first month of the 2014 college football season was an above average September.  Even though a couple of Saturdays looked like duds on the surface, there were fantastic matchups and plenty of drama every single weekend.  Due to a decent slate of non-conference matchups and a few timely upsets, we already find ourselves with just 17 undefeated teams heading into October.  Since two-thirds of those teams reside in the three best conferences, we are bound to see some paring down of that list in the very near future, which should make the committee's inaugural selection process a very interesting one.  Add in the great starts by Notre Dame and Nebraska, and my personal outlook for the remainder of the 2014 season is quite strong.

Thus, instead of spending a bunch of time talking about what has happened thus far, I'd rather talk about the rest of the season to come.  Since humans love nothing more than anticipating awesome things, this only makes sense.  With the hilarious strength of the SEC West, the depth of the Pac 12, the surprisingly large group of contenders in the Big 12, and Florida State seemingly needing to inject drama into every game they play, there is so much to look forward to.  To help both you and me do that, here is a countdown of the best remaining weekends in the season (I am excluding the final weekend of the season, as it's now a bit of a hollow shell, with almost every conference playing a championship game.  It's a great weekend, no doubt, but it's a bit of an odd one).  When evaluating these weekends, I am looking to both quality and depth, and then using my relative interest in the teams involved to break ties (for example, Baylor's prolific passing and their up-and-coming nature is a little more interesting to me than say, LSU's plodding offense). 

#9 October 25th

If you have some sort of fall project that needs to get done, or want to take a weekend trip somewhere, or just want to see how long a human can sleep, this is probably the weekend to do it.  The last weekend in October lacks both depth and high-end quality, while every other weekend has at least one of the two.  Part of this stems from many of the top teams having byes (for example, Big 12 favorites Oklahoma and Baylor both take the week off).  The rest of it stems from the matchups just not being all that good.  When the action on Saturday is almost surpassed in excitement by the Friday games (Oregon goes to a feisty Cal, a likely undefeated BYU travels to Boise), it's not a good sign.

Since the SEC is the best conference by a fair margin this year, a big determinant of the awesomeness of a weekend depends on what they have scheduled.  With Ole Miss-LSU, Alabama-Tennessee, and South Carolina-Auburn as the only games of note, this is a particularly weak slate of games, at least when compared to other weeks.  Of course, other conferences don't really help out much, either.  USC traveling to Utah could be a fun game if the Utes can avoid further bad losses.  West Virginia-Oklahoma State and Maryland-Wisconsin have some promise, but it's tough to get too fired up about either of those.  The ACC Coastal has some games that could help decide the division, but when you're on a 4-4 watch, there's only so much excitement that one can generate.

#8 November 22nd

The weekend before Thanksgiving is often a bit of a wasteland, with a bunch of SEC and ACC teams taking it easy before their rivalry games.  Arkansas-Ole Miss and Missouri-Tennssee comprise the only SEC games of note, so there's not much there.  That said, there are few potential high-end games (USC-UCLA, Oklahoma State-Baylor, Louisville-Notre Dame) that keep the week from being awful.  We also get a couple of games that could help decide some of the ickier Power 5 divisions (Wisconsin-Iowa and Miami-Virginia), so there's that.  And finally, if nothing else, this weekend avoids the bottom spot with a little mid-week MACtion.  Gotta love the MACtion.

#7 November 1st

The first week of November lacks depth, but gets by with two marquee games: Stanford-Oregon and Florida State's toughest remaining road test against Louisville.  The SEC gives us Arkansas-Mississippi State and Auburn-Ole Miss, so there's some potential intrigue if the Mississippi schools are still in contention (which I think they will be!).  If you're looking for drama regarding the auto-bid for the best non-Power 5 champion, East Carolina's trip to a much-improved Temple could be of interest.

#6 October 18th

Similarly to November 1st, this weekend relies on a couple of biggies: Texas A&M-Alabama and Notre Dame-Florida State.  The Big 12 adds a little drama as well with Baylor traveling to West Virginia, and Oklahoma hosting Kansas State (The Sooners lost last time Bill Snyder's crew visited Norman in 2012).  Georgia travels to Arkansas in a game that should feature a whole lot of running (but still probably not enough for Georgia fans' tastes).

#5 November 15th

This is where it starts to get really good.  East Carolina travels to Cincinnati on Thursday in a game that will feature points galore.  The SEC pecking order will quite possibly be decided with games such as Auburn-Georgia, Missouri-Texas A&M, and Mississippi State-Alabama.  The latter game features the two teams with the best odds of winning the West, for real (more on this later).  The Big Ten West division will most probably be decided when Nebraska travels to Wisconsin.  If Miami keeps improving, their home game against Florida State could be a lot more interesting than last year's game.  Finally, Ohio State goes to Minnesota, in what just feels like it could be one of those bizarre upsets we remember for years.   

#4 November 8th

This weekend is all about big games.  Baylor-Oklahoma.  Alabama-LSU.  Texas A&M-Auburn.  Ohio State-Michigan State.  Throw in a couple of fun road tests for the Pac 12 contenders (Oregon-Utah, UCLA-Washington), and we have ourselves an amazing weekend.

#3 October 11th

The SEC games this weekend (Ole Miss-Texas A&M, Auburn-Mississippi State, Alabama-Arkansas, and Georgia-Missouri) are good enough to propel this Saturday up the rankings.  Add in Oregon-UCLA and TCU-Baylor, and we have ourselves a Saturday with wall-to-wall goodness. 

#2 November 29th

Thanksgiving weekend always features enough rivalries to make it one of the best weeks of the year.  While a couple of those may be a bit less interesting than usual (Clemson and South Carolina already have two losses apiece, Florida and Michigan are too awful to make their games interesting), the weekend is still pretty great.  Notre Dame's trip to USC could have playoff implications for both teams.  Stanford-UCLA could possibly decide both Pac 12 divisional races.  LSU-Texas A&M is bound to a be a nice post-turkey treat.  Alabama and Auburn will probably add another chapter to the increasing drama in their rivalry.  And finally, the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State has a chance to the most meaningful meeting between the in-state rivals perhaps ever.

#1 October 4th (hey that's this weekend!)

As luck would have it, this coming weekend just might be the best of the season.  Part of this is the nature of October: Earlier in the season, there are fewer teams that have had their hopes dashed by untimely losses, so there are in theory more contenders, and thus more games that affect conference and national title races.  Part of this is that most of the teams we know are good have massive games this weekend, many of them against each other.  In light of how awesome this weekend is likely to be, here is a countdown (the second countdown in this post...what a treat!) of the best games of the weekend:

#10: Arizona at Oregon

I don't imagine this will be a particularly competitive game, but it is one of four battles of unbeaten teams, so it makes it onto the list.  According to S&P+, Oregon has the most efficient offense in the country, while Arizona has the 76th best defense.  As long as Oregon used the bye week to heal a few of the injuries along their lines, the Ducks should roll.

#9: Baylor at Texas

Much like the Oregon game, I doubt this will be a great game.  That said, it is at least a road test for the thus-far untested Bears.  Plus, we have the added intrigue of Charlie Strong trying to take back the state of Texas from Art Briles.  Unfortunately for the Longhorns, I suspect that desire will have to wait a year or two before it turns into anything substantive.

#8: Ohio State at Maryland

Here's where it starts to get really interesting.  With the rest of the previously decent-looking Big Ten East falling on their faces, these two teams remain as the only serious contenders to unseat Michigan State.  Ohio State is certainly more talented and seems to have figured their offense out (albeit against some pretty bad defenses), but we have yet to see J.T Barrett play a true road game.  Given that Maryland's strength is their defense, the Terrapins stand a pretty decent shot at keeping this game low-scoring and getting a chance to take the victory.  The matchup between Maryland's stud WR Stefon Diggs against a young Buckeye secondary will be the one to watch.

#7: Utah at UCLA

This matchup looked a little sexier before last weekend, before UCLA proceeded to win big on the road, and Utah dropped a home game to a decent (but not that decent) Washington State.  While Utah's win at the Big House has lost some of its luster (OK, all of its luster), Travis Wilson remains the most gunslingiest QB west of Bo Wallace, and gives his team a chance to be in every game they play.  Everyone has seemingly hopped back on UCLA's bandwagon after one big win (nevermind that Arizona State doesn't seem all that good), but I still remain skeptical of their ceiling this year.  If they play at all like they did the first few weeks, alternating terrible offensive and defensive performances, then this game has a chance to be a major letdown for the Bruins.

#6: LSU at Auburn

This is where this weekend gets insane.  LSU-Auburn is typically one of the best games of the year, and with both teams ranked in the top 15, the game is only the sixth best of the weekend?  While I am excited to catch some of LSU freshman QB Brandon Harris' debut, LSU feels a step behind the rest of the ruling class of the SEC West.  Turning to a new QB in an environment where LSU will most certainly need to score a lot to keep up doesn't seem like a recipe for a particularly close game.  Still, Auburn has looked far from perfect this season, which should give LSU a chance.  John Chavis and friends were the only defense to significantly slow down Malzahn's attack last year, so it will be interesting to see if their strategies still work now that Auburn has turned into a bit of a juggernaut.

#5: Oklahoma at TCU

Oklahoma is currently a 5-point road favorite over the Horned Frogs.  What is notable about this is that this is the smallest line for any Oklahoma game for the remainder of the season.  As Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all travel to Norman, this might be the best chance for a Sooners upset before the playoff.  TCU is still a bit of a blank slate at this point, but Gary Patterson's team has almost pulled off the upset the last couple of years, and finally enters this game without a mound of injuries.

#4: Stanford at Notre Dame

I'm not sure how to feel about this game.  Stanford hasn't looked particularly great in their two games against real competition, but they are still really good at taking away what makes your offense work (this shows in the results with under 300 yards surrendered to USC, and under 200 yards for Washington).  This means that the short passing/screening that made the Syracuse win possible probably won't fly in this game.  Honestly, returning to a bit of the 2012 game plan of pounding the ball and setting up play-action might not be a bad strategy against the Cardinal.  Since Stanford is insanely good at controlling field position, stealing a few big plays on offense might make all of the difference.  On the other side of the ball, Kevin Hogan is still basically the same QB he was in 2012: Mobile and capable of making a few throws, but certainly not someone who can carry an offense to victory with any reliability.  In the end, I worry that a big play (or two) from Ty Montgomery might make all the difference.  We shall see.

#3: Nebraska at Michigan State

After an hour or so off after the ND game, I get to watch the Huskers take on their toughest test of the year, which means I will be a ball of stress for most of Saturday.  While Michigan State is know for their defense, the offense (3rd in S&P+) has been leading the way thus far.  Nebraska is no Oregon, but with the way the Ducks were able to move the ball consistently on the Spartans, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nebraska have a pretty good day on offense.  Michigan State was surprisingly bad at giving up big plays last year (74th in IsoPPP+), so the Huskers shouldn't be afraid to take some shots with Bell and Westerkamp.  I am much more worried about the Blackshirts in their quest to stop the much improved Connor Cook.  The Spartans will probably ride their talent and their home field advantage to victory, but a legitimately improved Nebraska team has a decent shot at pulling off the upset.

#2: Texas A&M at Mississippi State

The last two games on this list involve the ascendant Mississippi schools.  It's easy to be inherently skeptical of both squads given the recent history of the power struggle in the SEC West.  That said, both teams have been really good this year, and both have really good odds to pull off the big victories this weekend.  Mississippi State is actually favored in this game, and (in a noon kickoff at home) gets to face an Aggie team coming off of a very physical and emotional game against Arkansas.  It feels weird to treat the Bulldogs as the favorite in this game, but given their talent and the situation, we absolutely should.  What's even weirder is that it may not end here.  From this article on the remainder of the season in the SEC:

"The SEC West is the best division in the country and might end up the best division of all time, and Mississippi State might have the best chance of winning it."

That is insane sounding, but it makes perfect sense.  First, Mississippi State lucks out by drawing the two easiest teams from the East, Vandy and Kentucky.  Second, they are the only team in the division that already has a road victory against a division opponent, so that gives them a bit of a leg up on everyone else.  Finally, F/+ has the team rated as the seventh best in the nation, so they are just a fantastic squad in the first place.  In the end, it's absolutely possible that A&M's offense is too much for the Bulldogs, and this narrative will end here and now.  But just the fact that the odds say you shouldn't expect that to happen is a big, big step for Dan Mullen's program.

#1: Alabama at Ole Miss

This game truly has everything.  The pageantry of The Grove.  The hype of College Gameday.  Playoff implications.  And most importantly, a really, really good matchup.  These are the top two defenses in football (Ole Miss 2nd, Bama 6th per S&P+), and the offenses don't rank too far behind.  The Rebel defense will be by far the stiffest test yet for Lane Kiffin's offense, but the matchup on the other side in the most fascinating for me (which is incredible, considering that the chance to embarrass Lane Kiffin on national TV is hard to top).  Alabama's defense is solid as always, but it's not particularly great at making big plays, preferring instead to simply wear you down over sixty minutes.  Enter Bo Wallace, who is 1) plenty capable of proficiency in the vertical passing game and 2) rather prone to incredibly dumb turnovers.  Because of how well the former matches up against a still shaky Bama secondary, and because of how poorly the latter would work against a methodical defense, I feel that literally anything could happen.  Dr. Bo could throw for 400 yards and grab the biggest victory for Ole Miss in decades.  Or he could turn it over four times and get shut out against the Tide for the second straight year.  I have little to no idea what will happen in this game, but whatever it is, it's sure to be both interesting and meaningful.

Monday, September 29, 2014

2014 MLB Awards

The 2014 MLB season was certainly not the craziest on record.  Many division leads were large and have been held for quite some time, which has led to minimal intrigue in the last few weeks.  Most of the division winners were the teams we expected to win their divisions, so there hasn't even been much drama there.  That said, even the most by the book seasons of baseball are still season of baseball.  Since baseball is awesome, that means there is still so much awesomeness to celebrate, that one doesn't have the time to fully appreciate it all until it's over.  Given that the regular season is now over, I will perform that appreciation here, by picking the winners of the major MJB awards.

As usual, I am just picking the six awards I care the most about.  Everything else is either too far afield of my interests (manager, executive) or too silly (comeback player) for me to spend time writing about.  Also as usual, I will just list the number of players I feel like for each award, instead of fitting my picks within the framework of the BBWAA.  Perhaps when the BBWAA starts admitting people who occasionally post to a personal blog, I will change my tune.

*Since I don't write about baseball often, I always like to note that the majority of stats you see below come from Fangraphs.  For a good explanation of the stats used in this post, see the Fangraphs library.  For a good explanation of why we should use these stats, even though they aren't perfect, see here.


NL Rookie

1. Jacob deGrom - SP, NY Mets
2. Billy Hamilton - OF, Cincinnati

Let's get this one out of the way first.  The NL rookie crop was not particularly deep this year, which left just two real contenders for the award.  While I like Billy Hamilton and understand that he created a lot of value by being great at defense alone, I have to give the nod to deGrom.  Hamilton is lauded as a supreme baserunner, but was caught stealing on 30% of his stolen base attempts.  He also put up a wRC+ of just 79 (meaning he was 21% worse at batting than an average MLB batter), which shows that there are a few significant holes on the offensive side of his game.  Jacob deGrom, on the other hand, was one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball this year, which helps to give the Mets legitimate hopes for a top rotation next year.  deGrom struck out 25.5% of all batters faced in his 140 Major League innings, which is a higher rate than he achieved at any level of the minors.  That he was able to almost match Hamilton's fWAR in only about two-thirds of a season is as good of an argument as any for him to win the award.


NL Cy Young

1. Clayton Kershaw - LA Dodgers
2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington
3. Jordan Zimmerman - Washington
4. Zack Greinke - LA Dodgers
5. Adam Wainwright - St. Louis

I was strongly considering just putting Kershaw's name here, and leaving it at that.  I don't think anyone would blame me, given that this is what he has done this season:

27 starts, 198.1 innings pitched - an average of over 7 innings per start
1.77 ERA - First in the NL
31.9% Strikeout Percentage - First in the NL
4.1% Walk Percentage - Fourth in the NL (slacker)
51.8% Ground Ball Percentage - Eighth in the NL among qualified starters
1.81 FIP - First in the NL by over half a run
2.08 xFIP - First in the NL by nearly half a run
2.09 SIERA - First in the NL by over half a run
7.2 fWAR - A full two wins ahead of everyone else in the NL, in spite of the relatively low innings total

So yeah, Kershaw was a comfortable first in ERA and every reputable ERA estimator.  Sabermetrics often open up baseball-related debates to a wider swath of possibilities than the narrow views often held by mainstream sportswriters.  This is one time where that is not the case.  Kershaw was and is the best pitcher in the NL by a mile.  There is no debate.

All that said, there are some worthy runners up that I wanted to take a moment to recognize.  Stephen Strasburg finally put together a full season of awesomeness, going over 200 innings for the first time, while still maintaining an insane strikeout rate (27.9% - 2nd among qualified starters, behind you-know-who).  His xFIP (my preferred measure of pitcher quality) of 2.56 was a comfortable second in the NL, which shows that his overall quality as a pitcher absolutely matches the initial hype from his rookie season.  Jordan Zimmerman almost matched his teammate in excellence, attaining both a career high in strikeout rate and a career low in walk rate (3.6% - 2nd in the NL), which led to the best season of an already great career.  Unlike the two Nationals on the list, Greinke and Wainwright didn't quite have career years.  However, both continued to march along as top-ten pitchers, which is impressive enough to end up on my list.


NL MVP

1. Jonathan Lucroy - C, Milwaukee
2. Clayton Kershaw - SP, LA Dodgers
3. Andrew McCutchen - OF, Pittsburgh
4. Buster Posey - C, San Francisco
5. Giancarlo Stanton - OF, Miami
6. Anthony Rendon - 3B, Washington
7. Carlos Gomez - OF, Milwaukee
8. Russell Martin - C, Pittsburgh

The NL MVP race is quite odd this year.  In spite of the lack of a slam-dunk candidate, the field is still very strong.  Certain Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw will probably run away with the award in reality, and the last two winners (McCutchen and Posey) both had amazing seasons that were basically of the same quality as the years they won.  Young guys Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rendon had their first true superstar seasons, while veterans like Carlos Gomez and Russell Martin turned in fantastic efforts.

What makes the NL MVP race the most odd, however, is that I am picking none of those players to win the award.  Instead I am going with the guy who has sneakily become the best catcher in baseball, Jonathan Lucroy.  His traditional numbers likely won't wow you (13 HRs, 69 RBI), but his batting line of .301/.373/.465 would be spectacular even if he wasn't a catcher, and his 6.3 fWAR (4th in the NL) displays his overall value quite well.  Of course, that gaudy WAR total doesn't even include his typically awesome framing numbers, which adds 2-3 wins of value to his resume.*  Even though the dark art of measuring this additional impact of catching is in its infancy, there's a lot of evidence to support the claim that Lucroy is among the best as helping his pitchers out.  You can't go wrong championing Clayton Kershaw for the MVP award, but I think a full evaluation of what it means to be valuable supports Lucroy as just as worthy of a recipient.

*There's a lot of debate as to where the value of framing should be assigned.  Of course, credit should go to the catcher, since he's the one doing it.  That said, if a pitcher knows he's dealing with a top catcher, he's more likely to work the corners knowing that the extra strikes are there for the taking.  If a pitcher can execute that game plan successfully, he should surely share in some of the credit.


AL Rookie

1. Jose Abreu - 1B, Chicago White Sox
2. Masahiro Tanaka - SP, NY Yankees
3. Dellin Betances - RP, NY Yankees
4. Mookie Betts - 2B, Boston
5. Marcus Stroman - SP, Toronto
6. Colin McHugh - SP, Houston
7. Kevin Kiermaier - OF, Tampa Bay
8. George Springer - OF, Houston
9. Danny Santana - SS, Minnesota

Tanaka was well on his way to winning this (and maybe other awards), and then got injured.  Thus, Jose Abreu ends up winning the award handily.  I was tempted to still give the honor to Tanaka given how freaking good he was (a 2.58 xFIP shows how amazing he could be if he could just keep the ball in the yard a little more), but Abreu's 36 homers and .383 OBP is such an impressive combination over a full season that I couldn't bring myself to do it.  I agree with others that it's a little odd to give this award to players that established themselves in other leagues, but they are technically rookies, so they end up in the top two spots. 

You may have noticed that Mookie Betts garnered the #4 spot on this list ahead of many players who played a full season or close to one.  While I strongly consider playing time in the MVP and CY Young, it matters less to me in the Rookie of the year award.  The main reason for this is that rookies can't really control when they're called up and when they will play.  Even if you're raking in AAA, you might be held down for several reasons: lack of room on the MLB roster, not wanting to insert a rookie into a pennant race immediately, or waiting until the super-two deadline to add an extra year of team control.  Given that you lose your rookie eligibility after just 45 games played or 50 innings pitched, I like to make sure to recognize guys like Betts who haven't played as much as others, but have clearly shown that they are a fantastic player with a long career ahead of them.


AL Cy Young

1. Felix Hernandez - Seattle
2. Corey Kluber - Cleveland
3. Phil Hughes - Minnesota
4. David Price - Tampa Bay/Detroit
5. Chris Sale - Chicago White Sox
6. Jon Lester - Boston/Oakland

This is the most insanely loaded ballot for any award in my four years of doing this.  Max Scherzer basically matched his Cy Young season, and doesn't even make the list because a typical Cy Young season apparently isn't superlative enough.  Jon Lester had a career season, and essentially pitched the A's into the playoffs (2.35 ERA in 11 starts).  Chris Sale put up the best rate stats in the AL (30.4% strikeout %), and only takes fifth because injuries are stupid.  David Price led the league with 248 innings and a 23.1% K%-BB% (the best back-of-the-envelope pitcher quality calculation).  How on Earth is he only fourth?  And finally, Phil Hughes only put up the best strikeout to walk ratio in the history of the sport.

In spite of all those worthy contenders, the race essentially comes down to two men: Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez.  Both were near perfect this season, so any attempt to separate the two is going to come down to some nit-picking.  Felix took the league crown in xFIP (2.51 to 2.57 for Kluber), while a low home run rate gives Kluber the edge in FIP (2.35 to 2.56).  Kluber struck a few more people out, while Felix limited walks slightly better.  Felix induced more ground balls, while Kluber was able to keep the ball in the yard in spite of more fly balls.  The pitiful Indians defense (29th in the majors in UZR) strongly suggests that Kluber had to go it alone when he was on the mound, but Felix wasn't exactly pitching in front of a bunch of gold glovers either.  In the end, I am forced to go to a  Bayesian tiebreaker, and give my vote to the person who I thought was the best prior to the season.  Since Felix has been doing this for almost a decade, he gets the nod. 


AL MVP

1. Mike Trout - OF, LA Angels
2. Felix Hernandez - SP, Seattle
3. Corey Kluber - SP, Cleveland
4. David Price - SP, Tampa Bay/Detroit
5. Jose Bautista - OF, Toronto
6. Michael Brantley - OF, Cleveland
7. Josh Donaldson - 3B, Oakland
8. Adrian Beltre - 3B, Texas
9. Ben Zobrist - 2B/SS/OF, Tampa Bay*
10. Alex Gordon - OF, Kansas City

Mike Trout will most likely actually win the MVP this year, which means I won't have to make an impassioned plea for him as I usually do.  What is interesting about this is that Mike Trout MVP season is easily his worst full season.  His walk rate dropped from 15% to 12%.  His strikeout rate climbed to 26%, and his 184 Ks led the league.  His batting average dropped below .300 for the first time.  His fielding numbers were decidedly below average, according to both UZR and DRS.  He only stole 16 bases, after stealing more than 30 each of the past two years.

And yet, in spite of all of this, he still deserves to run away with the award.  Basically, he was so good in 2012-2013 that he could survive a mild downturn in production and still be the best player in the world.  The increase in strikeouts came with an increase in power, and his career-high 36 homers, helped power him to a 167 wRC+ (just ahead of Victor Martinez for best in the AL).  He played 157 games, which shows a durability that some other candidates lacked.  Playing a slightly below-average center field still makes you one of the best defenders in the game.  Baserunning is more than just steals, as Trout added roughly half a win on the basepaths.  And finally, if you care about context-dependent stats, Trout led the majors in both WPA and RE24.  Mike Trout will not always put up 10-win seasons, but he just might always be the best player anyway.

*There are too many players here to write about everyone, but I did want to mention that Ben Zobrist has been the second most valuable player in baseball over the past six years.**  That is insane.  Ben Zobrist is and probably always will be the most underrated player in the game.

**Your daily "Trout is in another stratosphere" reminder: Trout is 10th on that list, in spite of not becoming a full time player until halfway through that time period.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

College Football Thoughts

At the end of week three, we find ourselves 20% of the way through college football's regular season.  This means we've heard about 20% of the ridiculous arguments that college football fans love to make.  Here to refute those arguments is me.

Argument 1: The Big Ten is awful and that means Michigan State won't make the Playoff

This is a good one to start with, because it shows that many of these arguments have a bit of truth to them.  It is quite obvious that the Big Ten is not having a good season, with all but three teams having already lost a non-conference game.  Combining those on-field results with general anger from many fan bases paint a pretty bleak picture about the rest of the season for the conference. 

In spite of the Big Ten's self-evident terribleness, the second part of that argument doesn't hold water.  The general argument I've read is that the lack of potential marquee wins will eliminate Michigan State from contention.  While I agree that the Spartans' upcoming schedule doesn't feature much in the way of top opponents, there is more than one way to collect a big win.  If Ohio State turns out to be about the 20th best team, would a three touchdown victory by the Spartans be any less impressive than a three point victory over a top-5 Buckeye team?  Would it perhaps be more impressive?  The current spread between Sagarin's top team (Oregon) and 20th best team (Kansas State) is only 11 points on a neutral field.  While the top teams carry an air of invicibility about them, they're really not orders of magnitude better than other teams.  If Michigan State can navigate their remaining schedule in dominant fashion, they should have a strong argument for inclusion in the Playoff, regardless of what other pratfalls befall the Big Ten.

The main message of all of this is to not fall victim to the conference fallacy.  Michigan State appears to be a step above the rest of their conference, and shouldn't be overly punished for other's down years.  It's both cliché and true that they can only play the teams laid out before them.  If they play those games in a manner that makes them appear to be a top four team, they should be in the playoff no matter how stained their conference's reputation is.*

*All of this assumes that the Big Ten remains at least at the level of the AAC or higher, which they currently are (scroll down here).  If instead you're playing something like Marshall's schedule, then you pretty much need to dominate every snap.


Argument 2: How can Georgia be ranked above South Carolina?  Stanford over USC?  Human polls are terrible, and shouldn't start until later in the season

One thing you can always count on in college football is people complaining about rankings that don't perfectly correspond to the head-to-head matchups that preceded them.  This season is giving us a couple of great examples with some of the marquee matchups from the early weeks.  If you paid attention to the polls this week, you may have noticed that the AP has Georgia one spot ahead of South Carolina, and Stanford one spot ahead of USC.  This isn't just a human poll phenomena either.  If you look at some of the major computer polls, you'll see Georgia and Stanford ranked higher than the teams they lost to in many of them.

While the poll guidelines do say to consider head to head results, I think those generally get overrated when people compare teams.  Both UGA-USC and Stanford-USC were three point games that could have easily gone either way (the former was literally decided by a chain link, and the latter was all kinds of crazy).  I accept that we can use the final results of these games as tie-breakers; since the season is so short, we really don't have much of a choice but to treat it as small sample theater.  That said, for evaluate purposes games between great teams that go down to the wire should generally be thought of as ties.  Do we really think that the USC team that gave up almost 500 yards rushing to Boston College is better than the Stanford team that has destroyed its non-USC opponents thus far?  Are we completely forgetting week one, when Georgia looked as impressive as anyone, and South Carolina couldn't stop anything?  If we're being honest with ourselves and evaluating the whole of what these teams have accomplished, it's hard not to agree with the ordering of these teams in the polls.

The second part of this argument is a little tricker, but even more important than the first.  I touched on this a bit in a post from last season, but I thought I would address this particular point a little more right now.  Typically, when a highly-ranked team loses early in the season, the chorus of complaints arises: Why was that team so highly ranked?  We don't know anything?  Why even do rankings early in the season? I agree that our knowledge in the early part of the season isn't perfect, but I would argue that our relative lack of knowledge about teams in September is actually less of an issue than out adherence to ordering teams by number of losses in November.  The famed college hoops analyst Ken Pomeroy has studied this in his sport, and found that pre-season polls generally predict post-season success better than late season polls.  FiveThirtyEight also uses the pre-season poll in its model for predicting the tournament

The basic reason why this works is that, when freed from the sometimes misleading small-sample win-loss record, analysts are able to better pick which teams are truly the best.  We will probably never be able to fully predict which young offensive line will jell or which freshman QB will end up winning the Heisman, but pre-season predictions still end up doing a decent job of telling us which teams will be good and which will be bad.  That our predictions and our models aren't perfect doesn't mean we shouldn't use them*; rather it means we should strive to continue improving what we know, while acknowledging the usefulness and limitations of our current knowledge.  In the end, this means that we shouldn't take early season polls overly seriously, but we also shouldn't stop trying to do the best we can.

*If you're going to read just one hyperlink from this post, make it that one.  A good summarization of how one should treat current models in pretty much any field.

Argument 3: Why didn't Georgia run the ball with Gurley on first and goal?

Background on this in case you weren't watching: Georgia was down three late in their game against South Carolina.  Following a Gamecock interception, they had a first down at the four yard line.  The first play was a pass, after which they got called for intentional grounding.

I understand the general idea behind this sentiment.  Todd Gurley is awesome, and is most certainly Georgia's best offensive weapon.  With three plays to go for the win, it makes sense to spend at least one of them letting Gurley try to make something happen.  That said, I think this complaint is a bit silly for a few reasons:

It smells of post-hoc fallacy - Quite simply, It seems like fans are only angry because this didn't work out.  Earlier in the game, Georgia had trusted goal line plays to both their QB Hutson Mason and to their seldom-used fullback, and both resulted in touchdowns.  Had the late-game play worked as well, we would have heard nothing of this.

Georgia rushed and passed about equally well - If we credit sack yardage to the pass game (this is one of the few areas in which I prefer the NFL, as they actually do this), then we get the following numbers for Georgia: 34 rushes for 222 yards, 26 passes for 186 yards.  While I don't have anything more advanced available at the moment (success rate would come in handy here), taking the simple averages shows that the two methods of collecting yardage were roughly equivalent.  Todd Gurley has a lot of hype, and we remember all of the times he's come up with amazing plays, but he isn't perfect, and the Georgia pass game seems to be coming along well enough to trust it in important situations.

Play calling is about game theory - This is probably the most important counter-argument.  Here's what the Head Ball Coach had to say about it:


The field of game theory is a complicated area, but the basic practical implication is this: In order to attain the best long-term outcome, you often need to make a sub-optimal decision in the short-term.  Even if we make the concession that running the ball is the best option for the Georgia offense, that doesn't mean they should run the ball every play.  Because of this, it's tough to judge play-calling on individual plays, except in certain circumstances (if a coach calls a boneheaded play on say 4th and 1, feel free to call for his firing all you want).  Rather, one needs to take a more overarching view to truly judge the quality of play calling.  Per my count from the last section, Georgia ran the ball about 60% of the time against the Gamecocks, which most would probably agree is a good balance given their relative abilities. 

In the end, you can still question Georgia's late game play calling all you want.  I'm just not convinced there was an easy right or wrong answer in that situation.  What I find really silly is that this line of thinking has seemingly put the blame on Mike Bobo, when the Bulldog defense was once again the main reason Georgia lost a big game.  Bobo hasn't been perfect during his near decade as the Bulldog's offensive coordinator, but he's overseen multiple quarterbacks that went on to the NFL, and has led an offense that has been the program's greatest strength over the past few seasons.  Let's pump the brakes a bit before getting aboard the #firebobo train.


Argument 4: The SEC is Overrated

Nope