The first month of the 2014 college football season was an above average September. Even though a couple of Saturdays looked like duds on the surface, there were fantastic matchups and plenty of drama every single weekend. Due to a decent slate of non-conference matchups and a few timely upsets, we already find ourselves with just 17 undefeated teams heading into October. Since two-thirds of those teams reside in the three best conferences, we are bound to see some paring down of that list in the very near future, which should make the committee's inaugural selection process a very interesting one. Add in the great starts by Notre Dame and Nebraska, and my personal outlook for the remainder of the 2014 season is quite strong.
Thus, instead of spending a bunch of time talking about what has happened thus far, I'd rather talk about the rest of the season to come. Since humans love nothing more than anticipating awesome things, this only makes sense. With the hilarious strength of the SEC West, the depth of the Pac 12, the surprisingly large group of contenders in the Big 12, and Florida State seemingly needing to inject drama into every game they play, there is so much to look forward to. To help both you and me do that, here is a countdown of the best remaining weekends in the season (I am excluding the final weekend of the season, as it's now a bit of a hollow shell, with almost every conference playing a championship game. It's a great weekend, no doubt, but it's a bit of an odd one). When evaluating these weekends, I am looking to both quality and depth, and then using my relative interest in the teams involved to break ties (for example, Baylor's prolific passing and their up-and-coming nature is a little more interesting to me than say, LSU's plodding offense).
#9 October 25th
If you have some sort of fall project that needs to get done, or want to take a weekend trip somewhere, or just want to see how long a human can sleep, this is probably the weekend to do it. The last weekend in October lacks both depth and high-end quality, while every other weekend has at least one of the two. Part of this stems from many of the top teams having byes (for example, Big 12 favorites Oklahoma and Baylor both take the week off). The rest of it stems from the matchups just not being all that good. When the action on Saturday is almost surpassed in excitement by the Friday games (Oregon goes to a feisty Cal, a likely undefeated BYU travels to Boise), it's not a good sign.
Since the SEC is the best conference by a fair margin this year, a big determinant of the awesomeness of a weekend depends on what they have scheduled. With Ole Miss-LSU, Alabama-Tennessee, and South Carolina-Auburn as the only games of note, this is a particularly weak slate of games, at least when compared to other weeks. Of course, other conferences don't really help out much, either. USC traveling to Utah could be a fun game if the Utes can avoid further bad losses. West Virginia-Oklahoma State and Maryland-Wisconsin have some promise, but it's tough to get too fired up about either of those. The ACC Coastal has some games that could help decide the division, but when you're on a 4-4 watch, there's only so much excitement that one can generate.
#8 November 22nd
The weekend before Thanksgiving is often a bit of a wasteland, with a bunch of SEC and ACC teams taking it easy before their rivalry games. Arkansas-Ole Miss and Missouri-Tennssee comprise the only SEC games of note, so there's not much there. That said, there are few potential high-end games (USC-UCLA, Oklahoma State-Baylor, Louisville-Notre Dame) that keep the week from being awful. We also get a couple of games that could help decide some of the ickier Power 5 divisions (Wisconsin-Iowa and Miami-Virginia), so there's that. And finally, if nothing else, this weekend avoids the bottom spot with a little mid-week MACtion. Gotta love the MACtion.
#7 November 1st
The first week of November lacks depth, but gets by with two marquee games: Stanford-Oregon and Florida State's toughest remaining road test against Louisville. The SEC gives us Arkansas-Mississippi State and Auburn-Ole Miss, so there's some potential intrigue if the Mississippi schools are still in contention (which I think they will be!). If you're looking for drama regarding the auto-bid for the best non-Power 5 champion, East Carolina's trip to a much-improved Temple could be of interest.
#6 October 18th
Similarly to November 1st, this weekend relies on a couple of biggies: Texas A&M-Alabama and Notre Dame-Florida State. The Big 12 adds a little drama as well with Baylor traveling to West Virginia, and Oklahoma hosting Kansas State (The Sooners lost last time Bill Snyder's crew visited Norman in 2012). Georgia travels to Arkansas in a game that should feature a whole lot of running (but still probably not enough for Georgia fans' tastes).
#5 November 15th
This is where it starts to get really good. East Carolina travels to Cincinnati on Thursday in a game that will feature points galore. The SEC pecking order will quite possibly be decided with games such as Auburn-Georgia, Missouri-Texas A&M, and Mississippi State-Alabama. The latter game features the two teams with the best odds of winning the West, for real (more on this later). The Big Ten West division will most probably be decided when Nebraska travels to Wisconsin. If Miami keeps improving, their home game against Florida State could be a lot more interesting than last year's game. Finally, Ohio State goes to Minnesota, in what just feels like it could be one of those bizarre upsets we remember for years.
#4 November 8th
This weekend is all about big games. Baylor-Oklahoma. Alabama-LSU. Texas A&M-Auburn. Ohio State-Michigan State. Throw in a couple of fun road tests for the Pac 12 contenders (Oregon-Utah, UCLA-Washington), and we have ourselves an amazing weekend.
#3 October 11th
The SEC games this weekend (Ole Miss-Texas A&M, Auburn-Mississippi State, Alabama-Arkansas, and Georgia-Missouri) are good enough to propel this Saturday up the rankings. Add in Oregon-UCLA and TCU-Baylor, and we have ourselves a Saturday with wall-to-wall goodness.
#2 November 29th
Thanksgiving weekend always features enough rivalries to make it one of the best weeks of the year. While a couple of those may be a bit less interesting than usual (Clemson and South Carolina already have two losses apiece, Florida and Michigan are too awful to make their games interesting), the weekend is still pretty great. Notre Dame's trip to USC could have playoff implications for both teams. Stanford-UCLA could possibly decide both Pac 12 divisional races. LSU-Texas A&M is bound to a be a nice post-turkey treat. Alabama and Auburn will probably add another chapter to the increasing drama in their rivalry. And finally, the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State has a chance to the most meaningful meeting between the in-state rivals perhaps ever.
#1 October 4th (hey that's this weekend!)
As luck would have it, this coming weekend just might be the best of the season. Part of this is the nature of October: Earlier in the season, there are fewer teams that have had their hopes dashed by untimely losses, so there are in theory more contenders, and thus more games that affect conference and national title races. Part of this is that most of the teams we know are good have massive games this weekend, many of them against each other. In light of how awesome this weekend is likely to be, here is a countdown (the second countdown in this post...what a treat!) of the best games of the weekend:
#10: Arizona at Oregon
I don't imagine this will be a particularly competitive game, but it is one of four battles of unbeaten teams, so it makes it onto the list. According to S&P+, Oregon has the most efficient offense in the country, while Arizona has the 76th best defense. As long as Oregon used the bye week to heal a few of the injuries along their lines, the Ducks should roll.
#9: Baylor at Texas
Much like the Oregon game, I doubt this will be a great game. That said, it is at least a road test for the thus-far untested Bears. Plus, we have the added intrigue of Charlie Strong trying to take back the state of Texas from Art Briles. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, I suspect that desire will have to wait a year or two before it turns into anything substantive.
#8: Ohio State at Maryland
Here's where it starts to get really interesting. With the rest of the previously decent-looking Big Ten East falling on their faces, these two teams remain as the only serious contenders to unseat Michigan State. Ohio State is certainly more talented and seems to have figured their offense out (albeit against some pretty bad defenses), but we have yet to see J.T Barrett play a true road game. Given that Maryland's strength is their defense, the Terrapins stand a pretty decent shot at keeping this game low-scoring and getting a chance to take the victory. The matchup between Maryland's stud WR Stefon Diggs against a young Buckeye secondary will be the one to watch.
#7: Utah at UCLA
This matchup looked a little sexier before last weekend, before UCLA proceeded to win big on the road, and Utah dropped a home game to a decent (but not that decent) Washington State. While Utah's win at the Big House has lost some of its luster (OK, all of its luster), Travis Wilson remains the most gunslingiest QB west of Bo Wallace, and gives his team a chance to be in every game they play. Everyone has seemingly hopped back on UCLA's bandwagon after one big win (nevermind that Arizona State doesn't seem all that good), but I still remain skeptical of their ceiling this year. If they play at all like they did the first few weeks, alternating terrible offensive and defensive performances, then this game has a chance to be a major letdown for the Bruins.
#6: LSU at Auburn
This is where this weekend gets insane. LSU-Auburn is typically one of the best games of the year, and with both teams ranked in the top 15, the game is only the sixth best of the weekend? While I am excited to catch some of LSU freshman QB Brandon Harris' debut, LSU feels a step behind the rest of the ruling class of the SEC West. Turning to a new QB in an environment where LSU will most certainly need to score a lot to keep up doesn't seem like a recipe for a particularly close game. Still, Auburn has looked far from perfect this season, which should give LSU a chance. John Chavis and friends were the only defense to significantly slow down Malzahn's attack last year, so it will be interesting to see if their strategies still work now that Auburn has turned into a bit of a juggernaut.
#5: Oklahoma at TCU
Oklahoma is currently a 5-point road favorite over the Horned Frogs. What is notable about this is that this is the smallest line for any Oklahoma game for the remainder of the season. As Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all travel to Norman, this might be the best chance for a Sooners upset before the playoff. TCU is still a bit of a blank slate at this point, but Gary Patterson's team has almost pulled off the upset the last couple of years, and finally enters this game without a mound of injuries.
#4: Stanford at Notre Dame
I'm not sure how to feel about this game. Stanford hasn't looked particularly great in their two games against real competition, but they are still really good at taking away what makes your offense work (this shows in the results with under 300 yards surrendered to USC, and under 200 yards for Washington). This means that the short passing/screening that made the Syracuse win possible probably won't fly in this game. Honestly, returning to a bit of the 2012 game plan of pounding the ball and setting up play-action might not be a bad strategy against the Cardinal. Since Stanford is insanely good at controlling field position, stealing a few big plays on offense might make all of the difference. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Hogan is still basically the same QB he was in 2012: Mobile and capable of making a few throws, but certainly not someone who can carry an offense to victory with any reliability. In the end, I worry that a big play (or two) from Ty Montgomery might make all the difference. We shall see.
#3: Nebraska at Michigan State
After an hour or so off after the ND game, I get to watch the Huskers take on their toughest test of the year, which means I will be a ball of stress for most of Saturday. While Michigan State is know for their defense, the offense (3rd in S&P+) has been leading the way thus far. Nebraska is no Oregon, but with the way the Ducks were able to move the ball consistently on the Spartans, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nebraska have a pretty good day on offense. Michigan State was surprisingly bad at giving up big plays last year (74th in IsoPPP+), so the Huskers shouldn't be afraid to take some shots with Bell and Westerkamp. I am much more worried about the Blackshirts in their quest to stop the much improved Connor Cook. The Spartans will probably ride their talent and their home field advantage to victory, but a legitimately improved Nebraska team has a decent shot at pulling off the upset.
#2: Texas A&M at Mississippi State
The last two games on this list involve the ascendant Mississippi schools. It's easy to be inherently skeptical of both squads given the recent history of the power struggle in the SEC West. That said, both teams have been really good this year, and both have really good odds to pull off the big victories this weekend. Mississippi State is actually favored in this game, and (in a noon kickoff at home) gets to face an Aggie team coming off of a very physical and emotional game against Arkansas. It feels weird to treat the Bulldogs as the favorite in this game, but given their talent and the situation, we absolutely should. What's even weirder is that it may not end here. From this article on the remainder of the season in the SEC:
"The SEC West is the best division in the country and might end up the best division of all time, and Mississippi State might have the best chance of winning it."
That is insane sounding, but it makes perfect sense. First, Mississippi State lucks out by drawing the two easiest teams from the East, Vandy and Kentucky. Second, they are the only team in the division that already has a road victory against a division opponent, so that gives them a bit of a leg up on everyone else. Finally, F/+ has the team rated as the seventh best in the nation, so they are just a fantastic squad in the first place. In the end, it's absolutely possible that A&M's offense is too much for the Bulldogs, and this narrative will end here and now. But just the fact that the odds say you shouldn't expect that to happen is a big, big step for Dan Mullen's program.
#1: Alabama at Ole Miss
This game truly has everything. The pageantry of The Grove. The hype of College Gameday. Playoff implications. And most importantly, a really, really good matchup. These are the top two defenses in football (Ole Miss 2nd, Bama 6th per S&P+), and the offenses don't rank too far behind. The Rebel defense will be by far the stiffest test yet for Lane Kiffin's offense, but the matchup on the other side in the most fascinating for me (which is incredible, considering that the chance to embarrass Lane Kiffin on national TV is hard to top). Alabama's defense is solid as always, but it's not particularly great at making big plays, preferring instead to simply wear you down over sixty minutes. Enter Bo Wallace, who is 1) plenty capable of proficiency in the vertical passing game and 2) rather prone to incredibly dumb turnovers. Because of how well the former matches up against a still shaky Bama secondary, and because of how poorly the latter would work against a methodical defense, I feel that literally anything could happen. Dr. Bo could throw for 400 yards and grab the biggest victory for Ole Miss in decades. Or he could turn it over four times and get shut out against the Tide for the second straight year. I have little to no idea what will happen in this game, but whatever it is, it's sure to be both interesting and meaningful.
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