As always explanation here, data below, thoughts after.
| Rank | Team | Agg Rank | CFP Prob | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 2 | 82.34% | 3.7% |
| 2 | Ohio State | 1 | 70.75% | 18.6% |
| 3 | Clemson | 3 | 67.43% | -4.5% |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 4 | 40.27% | -1.5% |
| 5 | Oregon | 10 | 35.26% | -1.7% |
| 6 | USC | 13 | 22.30% | -1.0% |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 6 | 10.47% | 1.5% |
| 8 | Georgia | 5 | 9.52% | 0.9% |
| 9 | Washington | 26 | 8.37% | -0.4% |
| 10 | Utah | 27 | 7.95% | -0.1% |
| 11 | Indiana | 24 | 6.97% | 3.5% |
| 12 | Miami (FL) | 22 | 5.22% | -1.5% |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | 12 | 4.68% | -10.2% |
| 14 | Marshall | 29 | 2.83% | 1.4% |
| 15 | California | 43 | 2.82% | -0.3% |
| 16 | Texas A&M | 25 | 2.68% | 0.6% |
| 17 | Arizona State | 42 | 2.67% | -0.1% |
| 18 | Stanford | 39 | 2.00% | -0.1% |
| 19 | BYU | 11 | 1.82% | -0.3% |
| 20 | Cincinnati | 14 | 1.42% | 0.8% |
| 21 | Florida | 7 | 1.37% | 0.4% |
| 22 | UCLA | 62 | 1.17% | 0.1% |
| 23 | Boise State | 21 | 1.15% | -0.2% |
| 24 | Northwestern | 28 | 0.99% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Penn State | 9 | 0.98% | -0.4% |
| 26 | Washington State | 65 | 0.91% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Oklahoma | 8 | 0.79% | 0.1% |
| 28 | Purdue | 44 | 0.71% | -0.1% |
| 29 | Virginia Tech | 18 | 0.53% | 0.3% |
| 30 | Iowa State | 20 | 0.31% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Texas | 15 | 0.31% | 0.2% |
| 32 | Nebraska | 46 | 0.30% | 0.3% |
| 33 | Oregon State | 74 | 0.26% | 0.0% |
| 34 | San Diego State | 37 | 0.25% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Coastal Carolina | 45 | 0.24% | 0.2% |
| 36 | Arizona | 77 | 0.22% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Auburn | 16 | 0.22% | 0.2% |
| 38 | Michigan | 23 | 0.21% | -8.9% |
| 39 | North Carolina | 19 | 0.21% | -1.7% |
| 40 | Wake Forest | 35 | 0.20% | 0.1% |
| 41 | Ohio | 83 | 0.17% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Buffalo | 80 | 0.15% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Central Michigan | 87 | 0.13% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Colorado | 84 | 0.12% | 0.0% |
| 45 | North Carolina State | 59 | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Western Michigan | 89 | 0.07% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Ball State | 101 | 0.04% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Miami (OH) | 102 | 0.03% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Nevada | 73 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Toledo | 94 | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| 51 | West Virginia | 30 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Northern Illinois | 107 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Michigan State | 68 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 54 | San Jose State | 82 | 0.01% | 0.0% |
| 55 | Iowa | 33 | 0.01% | -0.1% |
| 56 | Liberty | 75 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 57 | Kent State | 112 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Eastern Michigan | 113 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Kansas State | 47 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 60 | Rutgers | 85 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 61 | Minnesota | 66 | 0.00% | -0.1% |
| 62 | Maryland | 104 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 63 | Illinois | 81 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Akron | 125 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| 65 | Bowling Green | 126 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
More than half of the total Playoff odds belong to the three programs that are here every year. If you're not paying attention to college football this year, you're not missing much on that front. But there's still some juicy stuff lower down. Like, Indiana having better Playoff odds than the entirety of the Big 12. Or Marshall creeping into the top 15. Or the Pac 12 slipping four team into the top ten simply because of attrition elsewhere. To be clear, my model doesn't account for plague-related weirdness (ie. Wisconsin might only play like 5 games), but it still gives us an idea what the stakes are heading into November. And those stakes are evidently win as much as you can and hope you get the #4 slot.
| Conference | Favorite | Perc | Runner-Up | Perc | |
| ACC | Clemson | 95.0% | Notre Dame | 81.8% | |
| AMER | Cincinnati | 80.6% | Tulsa | 43.6% | |
| B10E | Ohio State | 96.8% | Indiana | 2.8% | |
| B10W | Wisconsin | 83.3% | Northwestern | 12.8% | |
| B12 | Iowa State | 51.8% | Oklahoma State | 48.2% | |
| CUSAE | Marshall | 96.1% | Charlotte | 2.9% | |
| CUSAW | UAB | 81.6% | Rice | 10.5% | |
| MACE | Buffalo | 43.7% | Ohio | 34.2% | |
| MACW | Western Michigan | 36.3% | Central Michigan | 20.6% | |
| MWC | Boise State | 85.3% | San Diego State | 72.1% | |
| P12N | Oregon | 63.8% | Washington | 21.8% | |
| P12S | USC | 57.2% | Utah | 31.5% | |
| SECE | Georgia | 63.5% | Florida | 36.4% | |
| SECW | Alabama | 98.9% | Auburn | 0.7% | |
| SUNE | Appalachian State | 52.6% | Coastal Carolina | 42.6% | |
| SUNW | Louisiana-Lafayette | 94.3% | South Alabama | 5.0% |
The conference odds are mostly as one would expect with a couple exceptions. Iowa State! Coastal Carolina! Rice????!!! In more orderly news, it appears that the SEC East comes down to the Cocktail Party and Boise is still really good.
Week 10 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| Notre Dame | Clemson | 35.1% | 0.102 |
| Oregon | Stanford | 82.8% | 0.026 |
| Georgia | Florida | 60.4% | 0.023 |
| USC | Arizona State | 81.0% | 0.021 |
| California | Washington | 38.3% | 0.016 |
| Boise State | BYU | 44.0% | 0.014 |
| Wisconsin | Purdue | 92.7% | 0.012 |
| Indiana | Michigan | 55.1% | 0.011 |
| North Carolina State | Miami (FL) | 27.7% | 0.008 |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma State | 24.7% | 0.006 |
The top weekend of the year earns that title not by having a bunch of huge games, but rather by spreading the love around. It also earns that title by having way more competitive games that previous weeks. The underdog in each of the games above has a reasonable shot at pulling the upset. BYU-Boise starts things off on Friday night and leads us in to the first full Saturday of this bizarre season. Can't wait.
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