| Rank | Team | FPI Rank | POFF Prob | Change |
| 1 | Baylor | 1 | 58.373% | -5.6% |
| 2 | Ohio State | 5 | 47.747% | 2.7% |
| 3 | Iowa | 29 | 43.905% | 19.5% |
| 4 | Texas Christian | 2 | 37.812% | -6.9% |
| 5 | Clemson | 11 | 34.348% | -7.6% |
| 6 | Michigan State | 22 | 25.081% | 13.6% |
| 7 | Utah | 17 | 20.891% | 6.8% |
| 8 | Louisiana State | 7 | 19.391% | 7.9% |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 8 | 19.130% | 7.0% |
| 10 | Florida State | 15 | 18.154% | 5.9% |
| 11 | Florida | 12 | 12.328% | -14.5% |
| 12 | Alabama | 3 | 11.571% | 3.1% |
| 13 | Stanford | 10 | 10.701% | 3.2% |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | 20 | 9.081% | -3.2% |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 4 | 7.301% | 4.4% |
| 16 | North Carolina | 23 | 4.835% | 1.1% |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 14 | 4.483% | -14.6% |
| 18 | Toledo | 42 | 2.786% | -1.1% |
| 19 | Houston | 52 | 1.455% | 0.5% |
| 20 | Memphis | 43 | 1.366% | 1.2% |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 30 | 1.331% | 0.1% |
| 22 | Duke | 44 | 1.277% | -0.8% |
| 23 | Brigham Young | 50 | 1.215% | 0.0% |
| 24 | California | 24 | 1.142% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Michigan | 18 | 1.077% | -9.9% |
| 26 | Pittsburgh | 45 | 0.646% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Mississippi | 9 | 0.635% | -8.1% |
| 28 | Georgia | 16 | 0.627% | -0.2% |
| 29 | Temple | 48 | 0.443% | -0.4% |
| 30 | UCLA | 19 | 0.231% | -1.7% |
| 31 | Mississippi State | 21 | 0.174% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Texas Tech | 31 | 0.103% | -0.1% |
| 33 | North Carolina State | 36 | 0.074% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Penn State | 54 | 0.072% | -0.2% |
| 35 | Miami (FL) | 32 | 0.071% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Northwestern | 60 | 0.066% | -1.7% |
| 37 | Illinois | 56 | 0.035% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Arizona | 46 | 0.025% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Auburn | 35 | 0.011% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Kentucky | 57 | 0.006% | -0.1% |
| 41 | Washington State | 64 | 0.000% | 0.0% |
1. Things are getting serious, with no fewer than nine teams leaving the rankings this week. Say goodbye to Kansas State, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Syracuse, USC, Minnesota, Arizona State, and Washington. USC is the biggest name on this list, not just because of their history, but also because of their high rank in FPI (6th). Due to their three losses any playoff hopes are gone, but they can still be a pretty big spoiler for others, with the Utes coming to town this weekend.
2. In my preseason preview, I picked two Big Ten teams to make the playoff. Lo and behold:
| Conference | Exp Playoff Teams |
| Big 10 | 1.193 |
| Big 12 | 1.127 |
| ACC | 0.594 |
| SEC | 0.492 |
| Pac 12 | 0.330 |
| Independent | 0.203 |
| American | 0.033 |
| MAC | 0.028 |
It is still unlikely that the Big Ten places two in the field, partially because of Iowa (more on this below), and partially because they still have a lot of their big matchups remaining. That said, we have to start considering the fact that craziness elsewhere might lead to an all-Big Ten game at some point in the playoff. The SEC takes a big hit (down from .75 last week) due to both conference in-fighting (they were the only conference to lose an undefeated team in Week 7, and they lost two), and an untimely loss to Memphis. The SEC will stop beating itself up so regularly after next weekend, but a bunch of losses on the book, combined with a couple tough remaining non-conference tilts, might doom the conference.
3. As predicted last week, Oklahoma State took a small hit in the rankings due to their bye week. Their FPI didn't change (21st to 20th), but everyone else around them avoiding a loss had the cumulative effect of dropping the Cowboys' five spots. Regardless, the three Big 12 teams ranked above them all come to Stillwater in November, so the path to the playoff still runs through Mike Gundy. Which is only the second weirdest thing about this season...
4. 2007 Kansas Watch: We live in a tumultuous time. Things are changing faster than ever, and while most of this change is for the good, the very process of change can lead to temporary unrest. This means that while there are more opportunities for our children than ever before, there remains a great deal of fear and uncertainty. We often do not want to share this turmoil with our children, as interrupting their carefree lives can seem unnecessarily burdensome. That said, children will often surprise you with their wisdom and their ability to persevere. In light of that, it's probably time you sat down with them and had the talk: The talk about the undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes.
In all seriousness, there are a few very logical and non-dangerous reasons that Iowa vaults into the top three of the playoff odds this week. First, a few of the teams around them (Florida and Texas A&M) suffered their first losses of the season, which opened up some room for the Hawkeyes. Second, they passed what was legitimately one of their toughest remaining road tests. Finally, the blowout nature of that win over Northwestern finally forced FPI to give Iowa a little credit, as they climbed from 41st to 29th (which bumps their likelihood of winning future games ever so slightly). Sure, I know Iowa doesn't actually have near-even odds of reaching the playoff at this point, but they do probably have about a 10% chance of winning out, and I severely doubt the committee would leave out an undefeated Power 5 conference champ. All I know is that I'm incredibly interested to see what the committee does with Iowa when they release their first poll in two weeks.
5. 2014 Florida State Watch: While the Kansas Watch is more of a warning at this point, the Florida State watch can probably be put on hold. Ohio State, Florida State, TCU, and Iowa all had their moments of imperfection on Saturday, but every one of them ended up putting away their opponents somewhat comfortably. One game does not erase these teams' shakiness in other parts of the season. That said, their decisive wins, combined with the general feeling that no one is all that great this year leads me to believe that we probably won't see an exact replica of 2014 FSU this year.
6. "Fun" behind-the-scenes note: With almost all of the undefeated teams winning (we still have 14 left, which is really high for this time of year), the raw playoff odds now sum to a season-high 3.6 expected playoff teams, which means I had to do very little adjusting for the final results. The playoff odds part of the model expects there to be roughly 2 undefeated at the end of the season, but the season simulations are usually at odds with this, generally expecting a little less than 1. As more and more teams dodge potential losses, the latter is starting to give way to the former.
Week 8 Preview
| Home | Away | Home Win Prob | Playoff Teams Lost |
| USC | Utah | 70.84% | 0.049 |
| Miami (FL) | Clemson | 34.95% | 0.040 |
| Georgia Tech | Florida State | 43.78% | 0.026 |
| Alabama | Tennessee | 70.34% | 0.017 |
| Ole Miss | Texas A&M | 64.57% | 0.017 |
| Rutgers | Ohio State | 8.55% | 0.014 |
| LSU | Western Kentucky | 84.73% | 0.010 |
| Michigan State | Indiana | 89.29% | 0.009 |
| Stanford | Washington | 83.28% | 0.009 |
| Oklahoma | Texas Tech | 83.12% | 0.007 |
Week 8 does not feature as amazing of a slate as did the previous week. Still, the top five games are a pretty rich collection of fun matchups. Alabama tries to continue its uphill climb toward the playoff against an underrated Tennessee team (13th in FPI). Ole Miss-A&M are both coming of a loss, making their matchup effectively an elimination game. Clemson and Florida State appear to be a bit above the rest of their league, but a couple of tricky road games could spell doom. And the upstart Utes face their toughest remaining test against a Trojan team that is far better than their 3-3 record. Because most of these games feature home teams with some scars, I'm hoping that Gameday goes to LSU-Western Kentucky, mostly because that would be awesome.
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