As I did last year, I am including some info with each pick. In the parentheses next to the team name is the FBS-only rank of each team in three metrics: Jeff Sagarin's pure points, Brian Fremeau's FEI, and Bill Connelly's S&P+. After that, I include the spread predicted by Sagarin, Football Outsiders' F/+ (which is a combo of the other two stats), and Vegas (as of 12/10).
Washington State (34,58,62) vs. Colorado State (70,64,64)
Sagarin: Washington State by 12
F/+: Washington State by 4
Vegas: Washington State by 3.5
The bowl season starts off with a whimper this year. That's weird to say considering that this game features Mike Leach, but the Cougars have yet to master their aerial attack (59th in passing S&P+). Still, it seems like the program is on the right track after a decade of despair. Colorado State put a mild scare into Alabama in September, but that doesn't mean I like them here as their defense is more suited to defend the run (21st rushing defense S&P+ versus 102nd against the pass). Even if Washington State isn't great at passing, they're certainly good at it and will do it a lot. Pick: Washington State (22 points)
Fresno State (42,48,35) vs. USC (18,18,19)
Sagarin: USC by 9
F/+: USC by 14
Vegas: USC by 5.5
I would normally be worried about a team that's on its third coach of the year, but I think the talent differential is enough to stick with the Trojans. Derek Carr is a solid quarterback, but the Bulldogs were a bit overrated this year, and their defense probably won't be able to stop the improving USC offense. Pick: USC (23 points)
Buffalo (58,73,63) vs. San Diego State (87,92,87)
Sagarin: Buffalo by 9
F/+: Buffalo by 8
Vegas: Buffalo by 2.5
Buffalo just happened to be one of the four teams I saw in person this year. In their season opening game against Ohio State, the Bulls kept it close before falling late. The best play of the game came courtesy of likely first-rounder Khalil Mack. The senior LB made a fantastic interception at the line and the returned it for a touchdown, taking a perfect angle towards the pylon. This may be one of the worst bowl games of the year, but if you do catch a few minutes of it, be sure to look out for Mack. Pick: Buffalo (17 points)
Tulane (78,67,81) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (83,84,88)
Sagarin: Tulane by 2
F/+: Tulane by 5
Vegas: Tulane by 1
One of the best stories of the year has to be Tulane's return to respectability, as they qualified for their first bowl since 2002. While the numbers seem to favor Tulane by a bit (and in reality it should be higher given that this game is at the Superdome, where Tulane plays their home games), I think this will be one of the most even games of bowl season. Part of the dip in the advanced stats for ULL can be attributed to their season-ending blowout loss to South Alabama, when QB Terrance Broadway was out and there was nothing to play for (the conference title was already clinched). I'll still take the home team, but I think it'll be quite close. Pick: Tulane (5 points)
East Carolina (54,37,36) vs. Ohio (98,111,100)
Sagarin: East Carolina by 14
F/+: East Carolina by 25
Vegas: East Carolina by 13
Even though there are 35 bowls, there is still a such a thing as a bowl snub. This year, the Toledo Rockets appear to be the best bowl eligible team that didn't get in (Penn State not included). Instead of seeing an awesome matchup between Toledo and the upstart Pirates, we get treated to this mismatch instead. Frank Solich is a good coach, and there is still some talent in Athens, but I just can't see this game being particularly close. Pick: East Carolina (35 points)
Boise State (37,45,32) vs. Oregon State (32,46,60)
Sagarin: Oregon State by 2
F/+: Boise State by 4
Vegas: Oregon State by 2.5
Offensive F/+: Oregon State 43rd, Boise 44th. Defensive F/+: Boise 58th, Oregon State 59th. In other words, this should be a pretty close game (special teams favor the Broncos, as you might suspect, but I'm skeptical of the predictiveness of those metrics). Yes, the Beavers' offense looked virtually unstoppable during their six game winning streak, but they were playing a pretty terrible slate of defenses. I still like them in this game, if only because it might be Brandin Cooks' last game in college. If you haven't seen him yet, he's basically Steve Smith minus the crazy (which means I like him a lot). Pick: Oregon State (3 points)
Pittsburgh (60,57,51) vs. Bowling Green (28,39,26)
Sagarin: Bowling Green by 9
F/+: Bowling Green by 5
Vegas: Bowling Green by 6
One of my favorite matchups of the bowl season (for real). I'm going with the upset because Aaron Donald will probably tackle everybody:
Pick: Pittsburgh (2 points)
Utah State (30,40,27) vs. Northern Illinois (50,43,66)
Sagarin: Utah State by 6
F/+: Utah State by 10
Vegas: Northern Illinois by 1.5
If Chuckie Keeton were healthy, then this would be in the running for the best bowl of the year. Even so, Utah State has fared well in his absence, falling short of a conference title on the road by just a touchdown. In spite of losing Gary Anderson to Wisconsin and Keeton to his injury, Utah State might just be the best non-BCS team for the second straight year. I think they'll challenge for that crown with a win against Jordan Lynch in his last game for the Huskies. Pick: Utah State (7 points
Marshall (52,44,48) vs. Maryland (69,74,57)
Sagarin: Marshall by 4
F/+: Marshall by 4
Vegas: Marshall by 2.5
I've been working in Ashland, Kentucky for the past two months. Since Ashland is a pretty small town, the group I'm working with stays in nearby Huntington, West Virginia, which is the home of Marshall. It's been an interesting exercise to observe the local culture, and the personal highlight of that was stumbling across this piece decrying the CUSA's math that sent Marshall to Rice for the CUSA title game. And people wonder why newspapers are in trouble. As for this game, I'll take the team with Rakeem Cato on it. Pick: Marshall (14 points)
Syracuse (68,88,76) vs. Minnesota (57,49,70)
Sagarin: Minnesota by 3
F/+: Minnesota by 9
Vegas: Minnesota by 4.5
This is probably the least exciting bowl of the year. Yes, it's cool to see Minnesota having its best season in about a decade, but their lack of explosiveness on offense (neither the running or passing game crack the top 60 in S&P+) makes them a rather unpleasant watch. Still, they have the proven ability to beat bad teams, so I'll take them here. Pick: Minnesota (18 points)
BYU (24,21,24) vs. Washington (8,17,21)
Sagarin: Washington by 9
F/+: Washington by 5
Vegas: Washington by 3
Kyle Van Noy went crazy in lasy year's Poinsettia Bowl, in what has to be one of the most memorable individual defensive performances I can remember. This year he and his friends will face a much tougher test in a well-rested and healed Washington offense. I normally tend to downgrade a team's chances in a bowl when the coach leaves, but the upperclassmen-laden Husky offense should be strong enough to overcome that. Pick: Washington (9 points)
Rutgers (89,98,91) vs. Notre Dame (27,19,37)
Sagarin: Notre Dame by 19
F/+: Notre Dame by 22
Vegas: Notre Dame by 15.5
On one hand, it will be nice to see the alma mater win a bowl game (a win here would be just their second bowl win since I started school a decade ago). On the other hand, Rutgers is just terrible, and I can't imagine their inclusion will make this game watchable. Fun fact: With Chuck Martin and Bob Diaco off to their new jobs, and the Rutgers DC fired, Ron Prince is the only major coordinator left in this game. Yes, that Ron Prince will be one of the key players in determining how well Rutgers plays. Sometimes this is too easy. Pick: Notre Dame (34 points)
Cincinnati (49,47,56) vs. North Carolina (41,41,38)
Sagarin: North Carolina by 3
F/+: North Carolina by 7
Vegas: North Carolina by 3
Through their first nine games this year, Cincinnati was 7-2, which looks pretty good on paper. The problem is that not a single one of those games was against a team that would finish the season bowl eligible, which meant that they lost to two pretty bad teams (Illinois and South Florida). They did end up with a nice road win at Houston and an overtime loss to Louisville, so there are signs of life for the Bearcats, but I'll still take the Heels in this one. Pick: North Carolina (10 points)
Miami (FL) (40,34,22) vs. Louisville (21,22,10)
Sagarin: Louisville by 6
F/+: Louisville by 6
Vegas: Louisville by 3
The common perception about Louisville is that they are an offense-only team. With talent like Teddy Bridgewater and DeVante Parker, they are indeed great on offense. However, their defense has been just as big of a key to their success this season (22nd in F/+, up from 48th last season). I'm usually wary of relying on a high number of returning starters to suddenly improve, but in this case the 10 returning starters on defense were able to make the leap into near-elite territory. Louisville was shoved out of the spotlight after one bad quarter against UCF, but make no mistake; this is still a very good team. Pick: Louisville (21 points)
Michigan (38,29,40) vs. Kansas State (25,28,31)
Sagarin: Kansas State by 4
F/+: Kansas State by 2
Vegas: Kansas State by 3
Kansas State was a pretty good team this year that got almost immediately forgotten because of the season opening loss to North Dakota State. What no one knew at the time was just how good of a squad that was (well, they were the two-time defending FCS champs, but I don't think we expected a legitimate top-25 outfit). While I like their chances in this game, I have to go with Michigan. The Wolverines explosive offense in their biggest games (ND, Ohio State) shows the potential that lurks beneath their mediocre overall profile. I tend to think they'll figure enough out over the next few weeks to pull this one off. Pick: Michigan (6 points)
Middle Tennessee (86,70,86) vs. Navy (62,61,68)
Sagarin: Navy by 8
F/+: Navy by 4
Vegas: Navy by 6
After being the most egregious bowl snub last year, Middle Tennessee gets to go to Fort Worth to face the triple option for sixty minutes. Oh, the perks of joining Conference USA. Pick: Navy (20 points)
Ole Miss (43,31,30) vs. Georgia Tech (26,36,34)
Sagarin: Georgia Tech by 5
F/+: Georgia Tech by 1
Vegas: Ole Miss by 3
The common thought process about Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson is that because of their unique offense, they should be able to catch good teams unprepared and pull off more upsets than most teams. The problem with this line of thinking is that they really haven't done this the last two seasons. Their most notable wins have been the Sun Bowl victory over the Lane Kiffin train of dysfunction and an early season win over Duke, neither of which are particularly impressive. On the other side, Ole Miss has the nice combination of young guys improving and injured guys coming back that tends to help teams win bowl games. I think they'll use the three weeks of practice well, and should win by a decent margin. Pick: Ole Miss (15 points)
Oregon (4,11,9) vs. Texas (33,38,49)
Sagarin: Oregon by 15
F/+: Oregon by 16
Vegas: Oregon by 13
There are two very important things to know about this bowl season. One, the Pac-12 might be the best conference in the nation (if they aren't, they are a very close second). Two, the Pac-12 has some terrible bowl tie-ins. The result of this is that the conference is favored in every single one of its bowl games, with many of them looking like potential blowouts. This particular one looks like it might be the biggest mismatch of all: A great Oregon team with a few weeks to rest its hobbled stars versus a Texas program more focused on either
Arizona State (6,5,11) vs. Texas Tech (45,59,50)
Sagarin: Arizona State by 16
F/+: Arizona State by 24
Vegas: Arizona State by 13.5
I still love the Kliff Kingsbury hire for the Red Raiders, but it's going to take a little time to truly turn the corner. Kingsbury's learning on the job, combined with the fact that Tech wasn't exactly oozing with talent the past few years means that we probably won't see a year like 2008 particularly soon. This game might be even more of a mismatch than the Oregon-Texas one, which is saying a lot. My pre-season surprise team has exceeded my expectations so much that the only thing that would surprise at this point would be a loss. Pick: Arizona State (31 points)
Arizona (19,27,39) vs. Boston College (61,66,54)
Sagarin: Arizona by 13
F/+: Arizona by 9
Vegas: Arizona by 7
In a lot of ways, I feel like this would be a good place to pick against the Pac-12. BC's offense is loaded with talent beyond Heisman finalist Andre Williams and is the only team to seriously threaten Florida State this year. That said, their defense is really bad (82nd in F/+). If they get in a shoot-out with the Wildcats, which I think they might, I don't think they'll be able to make that critical stop needed to secure a victory. I'll take Arizona, but as a great philosopher once said, closer than the experts think. Pick: Arizona (24 points)
Virginia Tech (35,24,12) vs. UCLA (13,14,25)
Sagarin: UCLA by 9
F/+: UCLA by 3
Vegas: UCLA by 7
There is a chance that no one will score in this game on account of Virginia Tech's amazing defense (#1 in F/+) and their not amazing offense. If someone does score, I am betting it will be the Pac-12's offensive and defensive freshman of the year Myles Jack. Too bad I couldn't find a prop bet concerning which side of the ball he will score from first. Hopefully someone from Vegas reads this blog and rectifies this. Pick: UCLA (12 points)
Rice (63,55,61) vs. Mississippi State (44,42,33)
Sagarin: Mississippi State by 5
F/+: Mississippi State by 4
Vegas: Mississippi State by 7
One of the most under-the-radar stories of the season was just how decent Mississippi State turned out to be. After a disappointing 2012 in which an empty 8-5 record hid the inherent weakness of the team, the 2013 squad actually improved despite losing some key seniors (notably, starting corners Johnthan Banks and Darius Slay). One of the trademarks of the Dan Mullen era in Starkville is that the Bulldogs just don't lose to inferior opponents. I don't think Rice is the team to buck that trend. Pick: Mississippi State (13 points)
Duke (46,35,43) vs. Texas A&M (22,25,18)
Sagarin: Texas A&M by 8
F/+: Texas A&M by 7
Vegas: Texas A&M by 11.5
Last year I picked Duke to pull off the upset against Cincinnati. This was stupid of me, and they lost by a large margin. Duke has improved a lot this year, but accordingly so has the caliber of their bowl opponent. Lebron's mentee should have a huge day. Pick: Texas A&M (27 points)
Nebraska (47,51,58) vs. Georgia (20,15,17)
Sagarin: Georgia by 10
F/+: Georgia by 12
Vegas: Georgia by 9
Please don't make me write about Nebraska. Pick: Georgia (26 points)
UNLV (80,94,90) vs. North Texas (56,52,44)
Sagarin: North Texas by 9
F/+: North Texas by 15
Vegas: North Texas by 6.5
This might be the least "sexy" matchup of the bowl season, but there are three reasons to pay attention. One, it's the only New Year's Day game played at the Cotton Bowl, which is fun if you like tradition. Two, UNLV is making their first trip to a bowl in 13 years, while the Mean Green is coming off of a nine year drought, so everyone in the game should be pretty hungry for a win. Three, North Texas isn't actually half-bad, having beaten Ball State and eventual CUSA champ Rice. Pick: North Texas (28 points)
Iowa (29,30,23) vs. LSU (17,16,20)
Sagarin: LSU by 6
F/+: LSU by 6
Vegas: LSU by 7.5
Zach Mettenberger's absence makes this a pretty even matchup. Iowa has very little in the way of explosiveness, but they are a very solid team in just about every respect. Most notably, they were 6th in rushing defense S&P+ this season, which should bode well against the run-heavy offense that the Tigers are likely to employ. I still think the talent gap favors LSU in this one, but don't be shocked if Iowa finds a way to pull this out. Pick: LSU (16 points)
Wisconsin (7,13,4) vs. South Carolina (16,12,14)
Sagarin: Wisconsin by 3
F/+: Wisconsin by 3
Vegas: Wisconsin by 1
This is probably the toughest bowl matchup to pick. Wisconsin is a better team in a lot of ways, but Connor Shaw has seemingly near-magical abilities to pull games out at the end. The Badgers should be able to stop the run a little bit better with a healthy Chris Borland in tow, so I'll give the extremely slight edge to them. Pick: Wisconsin (1 point)
Stanford (3,1,5) vs. Michigan State (12,9,8)
Sagarin: Stanford by 7
F/+: Stanford by 9
Vegas: Stanford by 4
There is no bowl I am looking forward to more than the 100th edition of the Rose Bowl. Shayne Shov, Trent Murphy, Denicos Allen, and Max Bullough just might be the best quartet of linebackers to ever play in a single college football game. Outside of that, we will see a pair of offenses that exploded in their respective conference championship games after spending the season gradually getting better and better. I'm tempted to go with Michigan State because they've been so consistent this season. However, I then remember that part of the reason they won all 12 of their victories by double digits was that their schedule was pretty weak. Stanford may have had a couple of clunkers, but they were playing better competition almost every week. I'll give them the slight edge here. Pick: Stanford (11 points)
UCF (39,23,29) vs. Baylor (5,7,3)
Sagarin: Baylor by 16
F/+: Baylor by 9
Vegas: Baylor by 16.5
In spite of the blowout loss to Oklahoma State that probably unfairly skewed our perceptions of Baylor's season, the Bears are a really, really good team. A really good team that will be much healthier for the bowl game (for example, Tevin Reese should return). UCF is a great story and Blake Bortles might be the best QB in the game, but that's not going to stop me from putting a lot of points on this game. Pick: Baylor (29 points)
Oklahoma (23,20,28) vs. Alabama (2,3,2)
Sagarin: Alabama by 14
F/+: Alabama by 18
Vegas: Alabama by 15
The typical narrative from Alabama's last non-championship bowl game (the blowout loss to Utah) was that they "didn't get up for the game." It's entirely possible that that is true, but that is also completely irrelevant for this game for a few reasons. One, 2008 Utah was a lot better than Oklahoma is this year. Two, 2013 Alabama is a lot better than 2008 Alabama. Three, Alabama destroyed Michigan State after the 2010 season in their other "meaningless" bowl game, which shows that they don't unilaterally give up when not playing for a title. Finally, I can't imagine Nick Saban just laying back and taking it easy for a game. What likely happened is that Utah simply played better that day. Utah was only a 10 point underdog in the Sugar Bowl, which meant Vegas gave the Utes roughly a 20-25% chance to win outright. Don't make the mistake of relying too heavily on one past result. Alabama should roll. Pick: Alabama (33 points)
Oklahoma State (9,6,13) vs. Missouri (14,10,16)
Sagarin: Oklahoma State by 2
F/+: Oklahoma State by 3
Vegas: Missouri by 1
This year's Cotton Bowl pits two teams that lost out on BCS bids on the final day of the season. Missouri was a pretty consistent team all season long, while the Cowboys had some big highs (slaughtering Baylor on national TV) and some big lows (losing to West Virginia). The loss to Auburn wasn't great for perceptions of Missouri's offense, but Auburn's offense is a completely unique beast. I don't think Oklahoma State will be able to recreates something quite like that. Still, this should be one of the best bowls to watch, as I'm sure it will be close and well-contested. Pick: Missouri (4 points)
Clemson (15,26,6) vs. Ohio State (10,8,7)
Sagarin: Ohio State by 2
F/+: Ohio State by 6
Vegas: Ohio State by 2.5
The popular narrative around this game is that it is a matchup of two top-notch offenses. No one is doubting that Ohio State can score on anyone: Even putting up "just" 24 on Michigan State was actually quite the achievement. However, the second best unit in this game may not be Clemson's offense, but instead their defense. In fact, F/+ would give the slight edge to Brent Venables much-improved unit (13th in D, compared to 17th in O), although the margin is slim enough that I won't argue if you think otherwise. I think this game comes down to the one unmentioned unit, the Buckeyes' D, which I think will get just enough pressure on Tajh Boyd to win the game. Pick: Ohio State (19 points)
Vanderbilt (53,53,73) vs. Houston (36,32,47)
Sagarin: Houston by 4
F/+: Houston by 4
Vegas: Vanderbilt by 3
This is one of the most SEC-biasy lines you'll see. Vanderbilt is probably better than their advanced metrics dictate (injuries hurt), but Houston showed the ability to play neck-and-neck with good teams, losing to UCF and Louisville by one score in back to back weeks. Yes, Houston didn't quite get that signature win this season, but I think there's good reason to believe that they can do it here. Pick: Houston (8 points)
Arkansas State (96,100,98) vs. Ball State (64,56,59)
Sagarin: Ball State by 11
F/+: Ball State by 15
Vegas: Ball State by 9
Arkansas State has the unfortunate honor of possessing two of the biggest traits that make me want to pick against a team in a bowl: They were bad this year and they don't have a coach. Let's not overthink this. Pick: Ball State (32 points)
Florida State (1,2,1) vs. Auburn (11,4,15)
Sagarin: Florida State by 13
F/+: Florida State by 11
Vegas: Florida State by 8.5
It's really hard to pin down this Auburn team. Yes, they pulled off three huge wins in a row to vault them into this game. However, they were only truly dominant in one of them (Missouri) and got a bit outplayed in one of the others (Alabama). That said, they were good enough to hang around in all of these games, and they were well-prepared to take advantage of the good fortune that fell their way. This makes me think that they have a chance to win this game. That said, their opponent is really, really, really good. Florida State is a well-coached team that is absolutely loaded with talent. Auburn's season has been a great story, but I think their amazing run comes to an end here. Pick: Florida State (25 points
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