When I got the blog rolling again a year ago, my first post back was my bowl picks. I've historically been very poor at picking bowls, but the blog must have been good luck as I finished in the top 5 percent nationally, largely because I got my top 10 picks correct (pick #11 was LSU over Alabama....whoops). I doubt I'll be able to do that again, but maybe luck will strike twice, so here I am.
After every team's name I will list in order their ranking in Sagarin's pure points measure, FO's FEI rankings, and S&P+ Rankings. I will also include the line as established by Sagarin, F+ (Football Outsider's combination of FEI and S&P+), and Vegas. These metrics will help to shape my opinions, but as you will see, they are far from binding. In most cases, the advanced metrics reflect popular opinion about teams anyway, so you shouldn't see anything too shocking. Without further ado, here are all 35 bowl games in chronological order:
NOTE: One thing I failed to mention is that the points after the picks are confidence picks (from 1 to 35), not my predicted margin of victories.
Nevada (72,69,67) vs. Arizona (34,40,30)
Sagarin: Arizona by 12
F+: Arizona by 17
Vegas: Arizona by 9.5
Do not expect the bowl season to kick off with defense, as neither of these teams are good at it. The rise of Arizona this year has been well publicized, but Nevada can grind out the yards as well with QB Cody Fajardo and RB Stepfon Jefferson. I wouldn't be shocked if this game was closer than the advanced metrics imply, but I still think Arizona will have the edge. Pick: Arizona (26 points)
Toledo (70,46,73) vs. Utah State (25,29,11)
Sagarin: Utah State by 15
F+: Utah State by 12
Vegas: Utah State by 10
It's too bad that the Aggies won't get a chance to test themselves against a better opponent. While a lot of other small school coaches have left for greener pastures this offseason, Aggies coach Gary Andersen has remained. I wouldn't be shocked if Utah State wins the new-fangled Mountain West next year. I would be shocked if they lost this game. Pick: Utah State (32 points)
BYU (21,32,18) vs. San Diego State (49,42,48)
Sagarin: BYU by 9
F+: BYU by 5
Vegas: BYU by 2.5
One of the criticisms of Notre Dame is that they played a lot of close games against bad teams. While this is true of the Purdue and Pitt games, it is not true of the BYU game, because BYU is a sneaky good team. We're used to non-BCS teams gaining fame through dominant offenses, but BYU is a nice counterexample, with one of the best defenses in the country (15th in F+). San Diego State did knock off a similarly defensive minded team when they beat Boise, so I can't put maximum points on this game. I still think BYU is a solid pick. Pick: BYU (23 points)
UCF (51,45,47) vs. Ball State (73,57,62)
Sagarin: UCF by 8
F+: UCF by 4
Vegas: UCF by 7
The CUSA had a very down year, but UCF was probably its best team, and they get a pretty good bowl matchup. Please don't make me analyze this game further. Pick: UCF (13 points)
East Carolina (85,114,90) vs. Lousiana-Lafayette (62,70,60)
Sagarin: ULL by 9
F+: ULL by 16
Vegas: ULL by 6
East Carolina on the other hand, was not the CUSA's best team. The Pirates' ranking of 114 in FEI is the lowest single ranking in any of the three metrics for any bowl team. Louisiana, on the other hand, came this close to beating Florida. I don't feel passionately about this pick, but it still seems like a bit of a mismatch. This may be the Sun Belt's year as the conference has a lot of favorable bowl matchups like this one. Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette (24 points)
Washington (44,53,46) vs. Boise State (33,28,17)
Sagarin: Boise State by 2
F+: Boise State by 16
Vegas: Boise State by 5
There were many disappointments in college football this season, but the biggest one that didn't get a lot of press had to be Keith Price. The Junior saw a dip of 5% in his completion percentage and threw for more than 2 yards less per attempt this year. If you haven't seen Washington since last year's Alamo Bowl, then be aware that this team doesn't have the same firepower. I'm still wary of picking a team with as clunky of an offense as Boise, but they still have a great defense, and they still have Chris Petersen Pick: Boise State (25 points)
Fresno State (28,39,13) vs. SMU (67,89,77)
Sagarin: Fresno State by 12
F+: Fresno State by 22
Vegas: Fresno State by 12
If you are one who believes in prior bowl performances, then you might look at SMU's 45-10 pantsing of a supposedly superior Nevada from the 2009 Hawaii Bowl (SMU's last appearance in this bowl) as some sign that June Jones is a master bowl preparer. However, I'd rather use data from the entirety of this season than one game from three years ago in making my decision. In that case, Fresno is the clear favorite. Pick: Fresno State (34 points)
Western Kentucky (75,66,65) vs. Central Michigan (109,101,99)
Sagarin: WKU by 11
F+: WKU by 11
Vegas: WKU by 5
Central Michigan is probably the worst team in a bowl, while Western Kentucky lost their coach to South Florida on the eve of their first bowl.* I would declare this bowl even more boring than the UCF-Ball State tilt, but at least the Hilltoppers have some nice uniforms. Pick: Western Kentucky (12 points)
* Fun fact from my research: WKU's first bowl was actually a non-sanctioned bowl in 1952. It was called the Refrigerator Bowl and was played in Evansville, Indiana. They won, so in theory there should be a trophy somewhere on WKU's campus commemorating this.
San Jose State (31,36,34) vs. Bowling Green (76,75,71)
Sagarin: SJSU by 14
F+: SJSU by 21
Vegas: SJSU by 7
Much like conference mate Utah State, SJSU didn't exactly land a marquee opponent for their bowl game. Furthermore, coach Mike MacIntyre is off to Colorado.* There's more than a little letdown potential here if you ignore the fact that San Jose State hasn't been this relevant in forever. I think the chance to finish the season ranked will keep them focused enough to cruise to victory. Pick: San Jose State (31 points)
* Given the sorry state of Colorado's program, that has to be the hire of the year thus far. You could sell me on Malzahn to Auburn or Kingsbury to Texas Tech as the best, but I would still pick MacIntyre. I can't believe they got someone good to come clean up that mess.
Cincinnati (45,18,64) vs. Duke (77,94,92)
Sagarin: Cincinnati by 11
F+: Cincinnati by 25
Vegas: Cincinnati by 7
This is a hard bowl to pick. Yes, the metrics have Cincinnati well ahead, but I haven't been impressed by anything I've seen from them. They will also be another team dealing with a coaching transition with Butch Jones off to Tennessee. On the Duke side, Sean Renfree should be able to have a big day in his final game. Plus, being in your first bowl in 17 years is bound to excite the team at least a little. Yes, the smart money is probably with the Bearcats, but if you're not confident in a pick, you might as well pick the upset and then brag if it comes true. Pick: Duke (2 points)
Baylor (18,19,36) vs. UCLA (19,27,32)
Sagarin: Baylor by 1
F+: UCLA by 5
Vegas: Pick
Finally we get a bowl without a heavy favorite. Baylor's biggest win came against a run-heavy team (Kansas State) which suggests that they may be able to defend teams like that better than passing teams. Since UCLA likes to pound it with Jonathan Franklin, this may give Baylor a slight edge. Additionally, I think Baylor has an offense that should be slightly more likely to rally, should they need to. Lastly, there is my notable anti-Jim Mora Jr. bias influencing this pick. He might work out as a college coach, but I am not ready to assume that he will yet. Pick: Baylor (14 points)
Ohio (97,79,104) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (61,60,86)
Sagarin: ULM by 12
F+: ULM by 3
Vegas: ULM by 7
Neither team in this game was able to parlay their early season work (Ohio beating Penn State, ULM knocking off Arkansas) into fully successful seasons. That said, this is a bowl featuring two teams that have at least experiecned a bit of the national stage, so there's still the chance to build on early season momentum. I'm going to continue to roll with the Sun Belt, because I can. Pick: Louisiana-Monroe (17 points)
Rutgers (52,34,59) vs. Virginia Tech (60,55,37)
Sagarin: Rutgers by 2
F+: Rutgers by 1
Vegas: Virginia Tech by 2.5
The Russell Atheltic Bowl seems to have a sense of humor about itself, judging by its Twitter account. That sense of humor will come in handy when watching these offensively-challenged teams square off. Rutgers' defense will be the best unit on the field, but I still trust Logan Thomas slightly more to make the big plays when necessary. Pick: Virginia Tech (4 points)
Minnesota (71,74,75) vs. Texas Tech (26,43,38)
Sagarin: Texas Tech by 15
F+: Texas Tech by 15
Vegas: Texas Tech by 13
It's refreshing to see Minnesota back to their tradition of backing into bowls because of a terrible non-conference slate (they did at least beat Syracuse, though). You could probably say the same thing about Tech's terrible non-conference slates as well, so I guess these teams are even. Their only even in that one regard though, because the Red Raiders should wipe the floor in this one. Pick: Texas Tech (29 points)
Rice (83,85,113) vs. Air Force (93,88,91)
Sagarin: Rice by 3
F+: Rice by 4
Vegas: Rice by 1
The act of writing about games like this one forces me to realize that writing bowl picks post was a stupid idea. I'm all for as many bowls as possible, but neither of these teams ranks in the top 80 in any of the advanced metrics. Rice's season highlight was blocking UCLA's first two extra point attempts in the season opener (which they lost by 28). Air Force's season highlight was hanging with Michigan for 4 quarters. The edge goes to Air Force. Pick: Air Force (9 points)
West Virginia (32,44,33) vs. Syracuse (50,31,49)
Sagarin: West Virginia by 5
F+: Pick
Vegas: West Virginia by 4
Feel free to call me crazy, but I think Orange quarterback Ryan Nassib may go on to have a better pro career than his counterpart in this game, Geno Smith. Both offenses should have big games in this one, so it could very well come down to the end. West Virginia has consistently shown the ability to score late in close games (Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma), so I give them a slight edge here. Pick: West Virginia (6 points)
Navy (78,83,84) vs. Arizona State (16,41,40)
Sagarin: Arizona State by 20
F+: Arizona State by 19
Vegas: Arizona State by 14
Last year, Arizona State was the biggest underdog of the bowl season as they had to face off against a great Boise squad.* This year, they become one of the largest favorites. I'm normally pretty wary about picking against the acadmies with so much confidence, but this is not the same Navy team as in previous years. Pick: Arizona State (30 points)
*Boise not making the BCS last year was a much greater "injustice" than Oklahoma missing out this year, as they were 4th in F+ behind only the top 3 of Alabama, LSU, and Oklahoma State.
Texas (17,20,27) vs. Oregon State (10,14,22)
Sagarin: Oregon State by 3
F+: Oregon State by 4
Vegas: Oregon State by 2
The Alamo Bowl gives us one of the most even matchups of the bowl season. Both teams swooned down the stretch, but that was as much a function of their tough schedules than anything else. I'm slightly more confident in the Beavers because they have two quarterbacks that are better than any of the Longhorns' QBs. Pick: Oregon State (10 points)
TCU (27,24,41) vs. Michigan State (43,23,6)
Sagarin: TCU by 4
F+: Michigan State by 13
Vegas: TCU by 2.5
After going through half of the list with very few disagreements between the lines, we get a big one here. F+ has Michigan State's defense as the best in the country, which explains why they are favored so heavily. It makes sense when you think about how they held Ohio State to 17 points, and kept Michigan out of the end zone entirely. Of course, they still lost both of those games, so they're defense wasn't enough to overcome an offense without a hint of dynamic ability. With stud freshman Devonte Fields, TCU's defense is no slouch either (9th in F+), but they too have struggled to move the ball on offense. In defensive battles like this, I tend to lean towards the team that is more likely to pull off a big offensive play. I think that team is the Horned Frogs. Pick: TCU (8 points)
NC State (63,56,69) vs. Vanderbilt (35,52,50)
Sagarin: Vandy by 7
F+: Vandy by 8
Vegas: Vandy by 6.5
NC State scored one of the biggest upsets of the year with their win against Florida State. Since they clearly have the ability to knock off a superior team, the question is whether or not they can do it again. I'm not as big of a Mike Glennon fan as some, but he should be the superior QB in this game. I don't think that will be enough to topple Vanderbilt, but it should make for a close, exciting game. Pick: Vanderbilt (16 points)
USC (15,25,21) vs. Georgia Tech (58,58,35)
Sagarin: USC by 13
F+: USC by 19
Vegas: USC by 10
USC's season was a bit of a disaster, but I don't see them dropping this game to the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech showed some grittiness in tight losses to Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Florida State. Still, those were all losses, and it's tough to see them slowing down an offense that is even more dyanmic than those ones. Pick: USC (28 points)
Iowa State (39,37,57) vs. Tulsa (57,50,54)
Sagarin: Iowa State by 5
F+: Iowa State by 2
Vegas: Pick
Part of what makes picking bowls so hard is lacking a good way to compare teams such as these. Iowa State is clearly a good team, but they're probably the second worst team in their conference (although that conference has a legitimate claim as the best in the nation). Tulsa is also good and was nearly dominant in their conference, but the CUSA lacked quality wins outside the conference this year, and was possibly the worst FBS outfit. When in doubt I'll go with what the models say, and the models are picking Iowa State. Pick: Iowa State (7 points)
LSU (13,13,10) vs. Clemson (22,33,29)
Sagarin: LSU by 4
F+: LSU by 11
Vegas: LSU by 3.5
Clemson's unrivaled playmaking ability seems to be a bit of an ACC mirage, if I am to believe the results of the Clemson-South Carolina game. That said, I don't think they'll have another showing quite as bad as their second half in that game. Still, LSU should play Barkeviously enough to win this game. Pick: LSU (18 points)
Mississippi State (40,67,39) vs. Northwestern (38,22,43)
Sagarin: Northwestern by 1
F+: Northwestern by 16
Vegas: Mississippi State by 2.5
A couple of these Vegas lines have a touch of "SEC bias" in them, none moreso than this one. Northwestern's victory over Vanderbilt is actually the best SEC win between the two teams. The Bulldogs' .500 mark in the league is as soft as possible, because their victories came over the two last place teams in each division. Thus, they don't have the "SEC power" that you would think they would have. Furthermore, Mississippi State didn't play anyone of note out of conference and lost pretty handidly to the four good teams they played. I just don't see how you can make a case that they should be favored against a good Wildcat team that plays as smart as anyone in college football. Northwestern is looking like a good bet to win their first bowl game since 1948. Pick: Northwestern (20 points)
Purdue (65,76,68) vs. Oklahoma State (11,15,24)
Sagarin: Oklahoma State by 18
F+: Oklahoma State by 27
Vegas: Oklahoma State by 16.5
This is probably the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. Purdue looked pretty good in their early season loss to Notre Dame, but they didn't do anything of note after that other than play Ohio State to the wire (in all fairness, most teams were able to do that). Oklahoma State played well even as they shuffled through three different QBs because of injury. I would argue that Purdue's coaching transition could be another factor that hurts them, but losing Danny Hope isn't something that Boilermaker fans will be worrying about. The T Boones should roll. Pick: Oklahoma State (35 points)
South Carolina (12,12,20) vs. Michigan (24,21,19)
Sagarin: South Carolina by 6
F+: Michigan by 2
Vegas: South Carolina by 5
Both of these teams should really benefit from the time off. Michigan will get a chance to get Devin Gardner more reps while working in as many trick plays with Denard Robinson as possible. South Carolina should get the necessary time to fully heal guys like Connor Shaw and JaDeveon Clowney (it blows my mind to remember that he was banged up for the Clemson game). I have to favor the Gamecocks here, but this game could easily go either way. Pick: South Carolina (5 points)
Georgia (7,10,7) vs. Nebraska (29,17,8)
Sagarin: Georgia by 11
F+: Georgia by 5
Vegas: Georgia by 10
A lot of people are calling for a blowout here, but I think those that make such a claim are overrating Georgia a bit. Yes, they were very close to beating Alabama, but they were never able to stop the Tide's running attack, and a freak blocked kick touchdown enabled them to stay close. This year's Nebraska team may not be a vintage Husker squad, but they can run the ball with the best of them. I think the Huskers will keep it close before succumbing in the end. Pick: Georgia (19 points)
Wisconsin (20,11,12) vs. Stanford (9,8,15)
Sagarin: Stanford by 5
F+: Stanford by 6
Vegas: Stanford by 6.5
In addition to the harping on Northern Illinois and Louisville, I heard a lot of people complain about Wisconsin's inclusion in the BCS as well. While a lot of people dismiss Wisconsin for being a 5-loss team, it's important to remember that all of those losses were within a touchdown to teams with winning records. This is not the Wisconsin of the last two years, but it is still a strong team that has a chance to win this game. That being said, Stanford looks better since switching to freshman QB Kevin Hogan, and thus I would still have to favor them. Pick: Stanford (21 points)
Northern Illinois (41,30,55) vs. Florida State (14,16,9)
Sagarin: Florida State by 9
F+: Florida State by 12
Vegas: Florida State by 12.5
I don't like to rely on the whole "motivation" crutch when evaluating bowl games, but if there is ever a bowl in which it might be valid, it is this one. Florida State expected great things to happen this year, but they fell a little short, and now they have to face an overmatched team in their bowl game. Meanwhile, the Huskies have been hearing all about how they don't belong, and they aren't exactly that overmatched that a win would be shocking. I don't see the coaching transition being an issue for them since they swiftly promoted offensive coordinator Rod Carey to the head job. I like Northern Illinois to pull the big upset here. Pick: Northern Illinois (3 points)
Louisville (59,38,56) vs. Florida (6,6,4)
Sagarin: Florida by 19
F+: Florida by 31 (!)
Vegas: Florida by 13
I can't put maximum points on this game because of Florida's offensive ineptitude, but I still don't see Louisville overcoming the Gators' stifling defense. Enjoy what will likely be Matt Elam's final collegiate game. You could call his skillset "Polumalish" if you are inclined to do such a thing. Pick: Florida (33 points)
Oregon (2,2,2) vs. Kansas State (4,1,25)
Sagarin: Oregon by 3
F+: Oregon by 2
Vegas: Oregon by 9.5
It appears that Vegas has an Oregon bias as well, although I can't really disagree with them here. I don't think Kansas State will quite be able to keep up with the dynamism of Oregon, especially since Oregon will have some time to let some of their defensive injuries heal. Regardless, I am still excited to see the matchup that would have happened in September had Kansas State not backed out of it. Pick: Oregon (27 points)
Texas A&M (5,7,3) vs. Oklahoma (8,5,14)
Sagarin: Texas A&M by 2
F+: Oklahoma by 1
Vegas: Texas A&M by 4.5
Here is another rare example of a time when I believe the Vegas line more than the advanced metrics. Oklahoma was very good this year, but A&M is superior in the trenches, which should give them the advantage. This is a must watch game, if only to see the amazing Ryan Swope's final college game. Pick: Texas A&M (22 points)
Pittsburgh (48,35,52) vs. Ole Miss (36,54,23)
Sagarin: Ole Miss by 4
F+: Pittsburgh by 8
Vegas: Ole Miss by 3.5
This is one of my favorite matchups of the bowl season, and not coincidentally, one of the hardest to pick. Both teams hung with top 10 opponents, and were able to improve over the course of the season under their new coaches. There is once again a bit of an SEC bias in the Vegas line, so I think Pitt is the safe pick if you're betting the line. However, I'm still going to pick the Rebels straight up. Pick: Ole Miss (1 point)
Kent State (64,47,61) vs. Arkansas State (54,49,44)
Sagarin: Arkansas State by 3
F+: Kent State by 12
Vegas: Arkansas State by 3.5
My impression from watching a few Kent State games this year is that Spencer Keith is not a very good quarterback, but the defense is good enough to keep them in games even when the offense sputters (see the MAC title game or their upset win over Rutgers for a prime example). I don't think that'll be enough to slow down the Red Wolves potent attack, even without Gus Malzahn. Fun note: Arkansas State lost the aforementioned 1952 Refrigerator Bowl, but at least they had already won it the year prior. Pick: Arkansas State (11 points)
Notre Dame (3,3,5) vs. Alabama (1,4,1)
Sagarin: Alabama by 6
F+: Alabama by 6
Vegas: Alabama by 10
I'm a little surprised that the spread for this game has gotten as high as 10 points. Yes, Alabama is probably the best team in college football, but I don't think the margin between the Tide and ND is anywhere near 10 points. The Irish are basically a prototypical SEC team. I would say we actually compare pretty well to a hypothetical slightly-better version of LSU (focus on the run, amazing front seven). The real version of LSU came very close to knocking off Alabama, so there is definitely an avenue for Notre Dame to do the same. In the end, Alabama's offensive line will probably be just a smidge too strong, and Amari Cooper will make one too many plays. I do hope I'm wrong. Pick: Alabama (15 points)
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