Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Picking an NBA Team

For the majority of sports fans, team loyalties stem from where they grew up, where they went to school, or where they live now.  This explains my love of ND sports, Creighton basketball and Nebraska football.  However, there aren't any pro sports in Nebraska, so fanhood in that area is typically far more random.  Indeed, part of the fun of being from Omaha is getting to pick your own sports allegiences in these areas.  I used this opportunity to build my still-strong bonds in the NFL (Buccaneers) and MLB (Athletics). 

Of course, this post isn't about any of those sports, it's about the NBA.  Something that always surprises me to think about is how the NBA was actually my first love in sports.  My immediate memory when I think of the 90s in sports is Nebraska's three national titles, but if I go way back, the first thing I can actually remember is Michael Jordan and friends wrapping up their first three-peat in 1993 against the Suns.*  Since basketball was the first sport I played in an organized fashion it only makes sense that it was first one that I watched.

*Actually, I remember rooting for UNC in the 1993 NCAA tournament just before those finals.  Kids are definitely front-runners.

What's surprising then is that I've never been married to one team like I have been in other sports.  I've always had rooting interests, which are roughly detailed below:

1992-1994: Spurs
1994-1996: Rockets
1996-1999: Hawks
1999-2005: 76ers*
2006-2010: Jazz
2009-2012: Thunder

*Allen Iverson remains my favorite player of all time, and Game 1 of the 2001 Finals remains my favorite game of all time.

I think the main reason that I've slowly made my way around the league is that, more than any other league, the NBA is a star-driven league.  Rooting for a team without that one or two special players just isn't as fun.  The demise of my time rooting for the 76ers shows just that:  Once Iverson started declining, I stopped caring as much, and once he was traded, I was done.

This brings me to my current conundrum.  As you can see from the above chart, I've been a Thunder fan recently.  I was drawn in by Kevin Durant, whom I've loved since his days in Texas, but stayed because of the chemistry he developed with Russell Westbrook and James Harden.  As you probably already knew, Sam Presti recently ruined this by trading away Harden, a young star in the making, because he cost too much.*  As a result, my NBA fanhood is back on the open market.

*That trade ruined my otherwise perfect sports evening, where Notre Dame and Nebraska took care of each others' rivals (Oklahoma and Michigan) in spectacular fashion.

Thus, I am going to spend the rest of this post making my cases for and against every team in the league.  With the NBA as strong as it has been since Jordan (and maybe even stronger), I have a lot of great choices.  I'm in no hurry, so I'm sure I'll be spending the whole season catching games and highlights trying to make up my mind.  And hey, if you're reading this and don't have a team, maybe I can help.  With all that said, here we go.

The Impossibles

Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat - 0% chance each (of becoming "my team")

Let's get the presumptive finals opponents out of the way first.  While I may have been a bit of a front-runner as a kid, I'm not enough of one now to be able to root for either of these teams.  I don't really have any opposition to teams being built the way the Heat and Lakers were, but that doesn't mean I have to root for them.  The Lakers did re-unite the Nash-D'Antoni pairing that made the mid-aughts Suns fun to watch, but that enticement is cancelled out by my least favorite set of uniforms in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons - 0%

I love the Andre Drummond pick from this year's draft, but that alone isn't enough to overcome the rest of this roster.  The complete lack of impact perimter players does the Pistons in for me (You'll notice that most of the teams I listed earlier were led by great guards).

Charlotte Bobcats - 0%

Much like the Pistons, I love the MKG pick by the Bobcats.  Once again though, the rest of the roster lacks excitement.  Kemba Walker is great, but I'm not convinced he's ever going to be an above average NBA point guard.

Orlando Magic - 0%

The good news is that the rebuilding Magic should get a high draft pick this year.  The bad news is that this draft looks terrible.  Add this to the fact that E'Twaun Moore is currently leading the club in minutes, and I don't think the Magic will be in contention for my attention.

LA Clippers - 0%

The Paul-Griffin combination is fantastic, but that's really all this team has to offer.  DeAndre Jordan is exciting, but is also a defensive liability.  Vinny Del Negro was fun to play with on the Spurs on my Sega Genesis, but he is a coaching liability.  It seems like they forgot to build a team around CP3 after trading for him.  They'll still be good, but not good enough to realistically contend for a title.

Washington Wizards - 0%

John Wall and Bradley Beal have the potential to form a great backcourt for years to come, which seems like the kind of thing I would love.  The problem is that all there is now is potential.  Of course, there's also a bunch of crap that the Hornets (who were terrible last year mind you) didn't want (Ariza and Okafor).  So there's that.

New York Knicks - 0%

Carmelo Anthony was legitimately awesome with Team USA this summer, so there is a chance that he may be making the proverbial leap, albeit several years late.  In spite of that and the great defense of Tyson Chandler, there's absolutely nothing in the backcourt to get excited about, so I can't see becoming a Knicks fan anytime soon.

Phoenix Suns - 0%

While it seems like this franchise has been in decline ever since "bench-gate," the Suns were in the Western Conference finals as recently as 2010, when they took the eventual champion Lakers to 6 games.  Unfortunately, all that's left at this point is a few fun foreigners and Jared Dudley, which just isn't enough.

Sacramento Kings - 0%

Of all of the weirdly put together teams in the NBA, this one takes the cake.  DeMarcus Cousins is legitimately exciting, but everything else is kind of a mess.  Jimmer-mania didn't translate to the pros, Tyreke Evans is still caught weirdly betwee positions, and then there's the whole question of whether or not they're going to relocate.  The Kings should have a leg up for my affection since they used to play some of their home games in Omaha, but they're going to have to do better than this.

Philadephia 76ers - 0%

Jrue Holiday seems to be coming into his own this season, but for my own health I can't start rooting for a team that employs Andrew Bynum.  He has all the upside in the world, but I just don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to capitalize on it.

The Improbables

Golden State Warriors - 0.1%

The Warriors are the first team to get a sliver of a percentage, if only because of their great uniforms.  Unfortunately, they're trying to fit a square peg (an offensive roster with guys like Curry and Lee) into a round hole (a defensive focus with coach Mark Jackson).  Yes, they traded for Andrew Bogut, but if you see me getting excited about Andrew Bogut, then something has gone horribly wrong.

Boston Celtics - 0.1%

I can definitely envision myself rooting for the Celtics in a playoff series (say, against the Heat or Lakers).  However, I think it's unlikely that that would translate over to a long-term relationship.  Rajon Rondo is a truly unique talent, but his inability to shoot prevents him from being one of my favorite players.

San Antonio Spurs - 0.1%

Yes, they're old.  Yes, they can be a little boring.  And yes, I've been rooting for other teams pretty much every playoffs in the last decade and a half.  But there's something refreshing about how well Greg Popovich has been able to keep the title window open for the main cast of the Spurs.  I doubt I'll start rooting for them, but I was surprisingly excited by the prospect of a Spurs-Celtics final last year (before Lebron and Durant put that to bed), so I'll hold out a little hope.

Milwaukee Bucks - 0.1%

I've actually been to the Bradley Center (albeit for a ND game), and I actually know Bucks fans, so there is an ounce of inertia here.  It's too bad that there just isn't much in the way of talent there.  A chance at sneaking into the 8-seed in the East isn't enough for me.

Chicago Bulls - 0.2%

This team reminds me a lot of the 76ers squad that made the finals in 2001.  From the dependence on one dynamic guard to the focus on tenacious defense, there are a lot of sensible comparisons.  That being said, Derrick Rose will likely miss most of the season, so the Bulls are mostly in a holding pattern for now.

Indiana Pacers - 0.2%

With Danny Granger out for a while, it's up to Paul George to make the leap.  I enjoyed watching this team's playoff run last year, but it will be tough for them to become my favorite team minus Granger and Darren Collison, who they traded in the offseason.  They do get bonus points for having Ben Hansbrough on the end of the bench.

Dallas Mavericks - 0.2%

Like the Bulls, the Mavericks find themselves in a bit of a holding pattern, waiting to see how the free agent market shakes out next summer.  In the meantime, they've given themselves a competitive roster even with Dirk Nowitzki out with an injury for part of the year.  In particular, I'm a fan of the Collison-Mayo backcourt.  Also, Rick Carlisle has quietly become the best coach in the NBA outside of Greg Popovich.

Atlanta Hawks - 0.2%

The Hawks were able to shed Joe Johnson's massive contract in the offseason, and yet are still a competitive team.  If Jeff Teague can climb to the next level, then they could have something with their current core.  In all likelihood though, this is a team that will be active on the free agent market in the offseason, so I'll hold out until then.  They do have not one, but two Creighton alums on their roster (Korver and Tolliver), so they have that going for them.

Utah Jazz - 0.2%

For a franchise that lost everything but Paul Millsap from the team that was my favorite in the NBA a few years ago, the Jazz are doing well.  Millsap is one of the most underrated players in the league, and point guard Mo Williams seems like a good fit at what was a black hole of a position after Deron Williams was traded.  Still, I'm going to have to see a little more from the young'uns (Hayward, Burks, and Favors) before this team seriously contends for my interest.

Toronto Raptors - 0.3%

The Raptors just narrowly miss my list of "contenders" for one reason: defense.  Kyle Lowry is all kinds of awesome at the point, and he has enough offensive-minded Europeans (namely Andrea Bargnani) at his disposal to create a northern version of the mid-aughts Suns.  Also, I've always had a semi-irrational liking to the raw athleticism of DeMar Derozan.  But, my favorite team is going to have to be able to play some defense, and the Raptors just don't fit the bill in that department (You can make the argument that the Jazz of a few years ago didn't play great defense, which is true, but at least they could rebound quite well...Amir Johnson currently leads the Raptors with less than 7 boards per game, so they can't even do that).

The Contenders

Cleveland Cavaliers - 1.0%

The Cavaliers make the cut simply because of the potential for Kyrie Irving to make the leap to a top 15 player this year.  It also doesn't hurt that he has Dion Waiters as his backcourt mate.  Unfortunately, there isn't quite enough else here for me to grab on to, so 1% is about as high as the Cavs can go for now.  They are on local TV here in Columbus, so a "hometown" advantage could come into play.

New Orleans Hornets - 2.0%

Yes, there's been a lot of rumblings about how the Hornets "lucked" out to be able to draft the Unibrow in last summer's draft.  Of course, you could probably concoct a conspiracy theory for half of the teams in the lottery, so I don't really buy it for a second.  Add in that New Orleans was able to steal Ryan Anderson from the Magic in a sign and trade, and you have the beginnings of an exciting team.  The only drawback of being a Hornets fan is that I'd have to root for Austin Rivers, which would be a tall order.

Minnesota Timberwolves - 2.5%

Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love for a solid core of what should be an exciting team to watch for years to come.  They're both injured right now, so that takes the Wolves down a notch.  Still, there's more to Minnesota than just their two stars.  Most notably, the Wolves signed my birthday twin Brandon Roy in the offseason.  We'll see how well his knees hold up now that he's had some time to rest them.

Houston Rockets - 3.0%

The beneficiaries of the Harden trade get a significant boost on my list.  There's not a lot here besides him and Linsanity, but I do like their draft picks from this year (Terrence Jones and Royce White), and their GM Daryl Morey is sort of the Billy Beane of basketball, so there's definitely potential here.  It all comes down to what they do with the cap space they have.  There's still room for another max deal, which could make the Rockets a contender if they can get a stud.

Denver Nuggets - 5.0%

Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, Kenneth Faried, and Danilo Galinari form as exciting and athletic of a core as any team in the league.  That being said, I'm a little worried about the upside of this group.  I don't think this team has a 2004 Pistons ability to play greater than the sum of their parts, primarily because they don't have the defensive abilities that that team did.  Still, George Karl is one of the best coaches in this league.  I'm sure he'll be able to turn this squad into a near-contender that could find its way into the Finals if they catch a couple of breaks.

Portland Trailblazers - 7.5%

The Blazers aren't in a particularly great position to succeed right now.  In spite of this, the reason that they find themselves so high on my list is Damian Lillard.  Of all the players to come into the league the last few years, none catches my eye quite as much as he does.  He has the opportunity to be one of the most complete point guards in the league.  A nice supporting cast of Wesley Matthews, Lamarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and JJ Hickson gives them some options for the future.

Memphis Grizzlies - 10.0%

I had a bit of a soft spot for the Grizzlies when they pulled off the 8-1 upset over the Spurs in 2011.  The main problem with that team was lack of good offensive guard play.  However, they've started to remedy this in their amazing start this year. Mike Conley has shown improved play at the point and a random cast of characters such as Quincy Pondexter has finally added a competent outside shooting dimension to the team.  Add this to the impressive Gay, Randolph, and Gasol frontline, and you have yourself a real title contender, should the Lakers continue to sputter.

Brooklyn Nets - 27.3%

Earlier in the column, I explained that I probably wouldn't be picking the Raptors because of their defensive liabilities.  The problem with listing the Nets so high is that the same exact argument can apply to them.  Sure, Kris Humphries can rebound better than anyone from Toronto, but certainly Kris Humphries won't be the deciding factor in picking a team.  Rather, the deciding factor will be how well Deron Williams plays now that he's the well-paid leader of the franchise.  I'm willing to give him a mulligan for the last couple of years, but he's going to have to exceed expectations to make the Nets a true contender.  He was my favorite player in the league with Utah, and he probably still is, but that doesn't automatically make the Nets my favorite team.

Oklahoma City Thunder - 40.0%

After writing a lengthy post, I end up with the team that was already my favorite with the best odds to remain my favorite.  Do note though that there's less than a 50% chance so that's really the whole reason for the column.  Durant and Westbrook are good enough to overcome the loss of their teammate, but it's going to be tricky.  Not only to they have to adjust to missing one of the best shooting guards in the league, but they're going to have to get by without their friend.  I'm not really worried about Durant, as he's always seemed impervious to would-be distractions.  Rather, eveything hinges on whether or not Russell Westbrook is able to keep improving and avoid the over-reliance on his own offense.  If Westbrook can finally "get it," then it may not matter that they traded away the bearded one.

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