CFP Predictor - Year 3

As the fourth year of the College Football Playoff approaches, we seem to have everything figured out while still knowing nothing for sure.  Three years of committee selections have suggested the criteria for playoff inclusion while never quite confirming them.  A team's number of losses appears to be paramount, but 2014 Florida State ranked only third in spite of being the only undefeated team.  Conference titles are routinely mentioned as a factor, but we've had literally zero conference championship week drama to test this theory.  And while schedule strength is clearly important, we still don't have a firm, shared definition of what it means (and we definitely don't know what even more nebulous concepts like "scheduling intent" ultimately mean).  The first three years of playoff selection have passed with relatively little controversy, but all it will take to upend this seeming harmony is one crazy season.  As it just happens to be the tenth anniversary of the craziest season ever, here's hoping that history repeats.

As usual, my role in all of this is to attempt to add some semblance of order to the chaos.  That takes the form of my College Football Playoff prediction model.  The basic structure of this model is the same as last year, with a couple minor tweaks and an additional year of data added.  I'll rehash the basics of the model in the next paragraph, but please read last year's post if you want more detail.

The model simulates the season using an aggregate team strength rating that combines ESPN's FPI, Jeff Sagarin's Pure Points metric, and Bill Connelly's S&P+.  Once that simulation is complete, I sum up the number of times each power conference team finishes with 0, 1, and 2 losses and the number of times each group of five team finishes undefeated (this represents the four "buckets" of teams that have made the top four in the BCS/playoff era).  I also calculate an average strength of schedule for each team, using the NCAA's basic definition of SOS.  Once I have this information, I determine how likely a team is to make the playoff for each bucket, and then sum those up.  For the power conference 0-loss bucket, I assign a 100% chance for each instance, as no eligible team has ever missed the top four.  For the other three buckets I assign the probability based on a logistic regression that uses the past 19 years of BCS*/playoff outcomes as data and the SOS calculation as an input.  Finally, I adjust these playoff odds so that the sum of all teams' likelihoods equals to 4.  Most of the time this means increasing the odds for all teams**, which I do by adjusting the coefficients of the logistic regression using my old buddy Solver.  The results of this are my playoff odds.

*Once we have more playoff data, I will either limit or heavily weight the model towards that.  For the time being though, I think BCS data is a fairly good proxy of the committee's logic.

**I'm not precisely sure why the sum of initial playoff odds generally comes up short of 4, but I'm guessing it's either 1) that pre-season projections inherently clump teams together or 2) my simulation assuming complete independence of game results when that's not quite the case


The Rankings

Below are the initial playoff odds for 2017.  I have only included the teams that finished at least one of my 10,000 simulations with two or fewer losses (or zero losses for group of five teams).  This means that the best team left out is either Cal or Iowa State.  I think we're safe.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob
1	Alabama	1	70.31%
2	Ohio State	2	67.45%
3	Florida State	3	35.88%
4	Oklahoma	4	29.54%
5	Wisconsin	9	21.17%
6	Clemson	6	20.90%
7	LSU	7	20.87%
8	Auburn	5	20.71%
9	Penn State	10	19.03%
10	Washington	8	18.37%
11	USC	11	15.00%
12	Stanford	12	11.93%
13	Miami (FL)	15	8.15%
14	Notre Dame	18	7.88%
15	Michigan	13	6.46%
16	Georgia	14	3.76%
17	Louisville	16	3.08%
18	Oklahoma State	19	2.54%
19	Florida	17	2.31%
20	TCU	20	1.56%
21	Oregon	25	1.54%
22	Washington State	27	1.38%
23	North Carolina State	24	1.16%
24	Texas A&M	21	0.99%
25	Virginia Tech	28	0.87%
26	Northwestern	31	0.85%
27	Memphis	39	0.73%
28	Tennessee	22	0.60%
29	UCLA	26	0.56%
30	Kansas State	29	0.46%
31	Texas	23	0.43%
32	Toledo	55	0.40%
33	North Carolina	34	0.34%
34	Houston	48	0.31%
35	Boise State	46	0.28%
36	Arkansas	30	0.27%
37	Baylor	36	0.25%
38	Mississippi State	32	0.24%
39	Georgia Tech	33	0.20%
40	South Florida	49	0.18%
41	Ole Miss	35	0.14%
42	Iowa	40	0.11%
43	Nebraska	44	0.10%
44	Pitt	38	0.09%
45	Michigan State	50	0.08%
46	South Carolina	37	0.08%
47	Utah	42	0.07%
48	Western Kentucky	69	0.07%
49	Kentucky	41	0.06%
50	Colorado	43	0.04%
51	San Diego State	61	0.04%
52	BYU	47	0.03%
53	Tulsa	72	0.02%
54	West Virginia	45	0.02%
55	Western Michigan	70	0.02%
56	Missouri	52	0.01%
57	Appalachian State	66	0.01%
58	Syracuse	56	0.01%
59	Troy	77	0.01%
60	Central Florida	68	0.01%
61	Minnesota	65	0.01%
62	Indiana	57	0.01%
63	Duke	54	0.01%
64	Arizona State	51	0.01%
65	Vanderbilt	53	0.00%
66	Colorado State	63	0.00%
67	Arizona	62	0.00%
68	Wake Forest	60	0.00%
69	Louisiana Tech	79	0.00%
70	Texas Tech	59	0.00%
71	Oregon State	58	0.00%
72	Arkansas State	83	0.00%
73	Middle Tennessee	86	0.00%

The top four teams in the aggregate computer ratings are also the top four in playoff odds, with Alabama and Ohio State pulling away from everyone else.  Ohio State has by far the best chance of finishing undefeated (25% to Bama's 18%), but Bama's SOS means that a hypothetical one-loss Tide is almost certain to make the field, which gives the teams roughly equal odds of a playoff berth.  Florida State is closer to the top two in the aggregate ratings than the rest of the field, but suffers from a likely loss to Bama to start the season.  Oklahoma takes the spot that most pundits have reserved for USC because 1) the Sooners will probably be better than USC in spite of losing their coach and their best skill position players, and 2) the Big 12's new title game scheme makes it really likely (87%) that the Sooners will get to play an additional game that they should be favored in.

The rest of the rankings are largely as you might expect.  Notre Dame may be surprising as they aren't ranked in most publications, but there's too much talent in South Bend for the team to go 4-8 again (I hope).  Breaking everything down by conference shows that the SEC and Big Ten have a leg up on everyone, as you might expect when you have half the top 15 to yourselves.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.204
B10	1.153
ACC	0.707
P12	0.489
B12	0.348
IND	0.079
AMER	0.012
MWC	0.006
MAC	0.004
CUSA	0.001
SB	0.000

Conference Title Races

When I did this last year, Colorado and Wyoming had the lowest odds in their respective divisions, and then went on to win the damn things.  So what I'm saying is that you should take teams with 2% odds at least 2% more seriously than you previously were.

 

There's roughly a one in four chance of the ACC finally getting the matchup it desired when it put the Canes and the Noles in separate divisions over a decade ago.  But there's enough intrigue (especially in the Atlantic) such that nothing is a given.  Everyone's 2017 darling NC State would have better odds in perhaps literally every other division (kill divisions).  And Virginia (who will be quite bad) has weirdly high odds until you remember that almost everyone else in the division is replacing their QB.

 

South Florida is getting a lot of love this offseason (some of it deserved), but the numbers say the rest of the American is a lot closer to the Bulls than you think.  For the record, last year's projections were similarly weighted towards a Houston-USF title game, and that most decidedly did not happen.

Ohio State will be very good, but I can't help but feel that this overstates their odds a bit.  In related news Michigan currently sits at 9% to win the division, but that's also basically where a little team called Penn State was a year ago.  On the other side, Wisconsin's schedule is absolute cake.  If they take care of Northwestern at home on the last day of September, I don't think anyone else catches them.

The new-fangled Big 12 title game is good in that it scraps divisions and just pairs up the top two teams.  This should allow us to avoid some of the less attractive matchups we've seen elsewhere in recent years.  That said, should Oklahoma really be as strong as the numbers say, this will have the unfortunate side effect of giving them the toughest possible matchup to close out the season.  In other news, I'm not really sure why West Virginia is ranked to start the season.  While I sure do love Dana Holgorsen on a personal level, he hasn't yet proven he can turn a rebuilding year (which 2017 most definitely is) into something special.

The numbers like a rematch of last year's title game, but there's enough turnover (with Jeff Brohm leaving WKU for Purdue) that I wouldn't be shocked if something weirder happened.  Also, UAB BACK!

Toledo hasn't had a losing record since 2009, but they also haven't been to the MAC title game since 2004.  Existing at the same time as the NIU dynasty and PJ Fleck's brief insurgence has made life tough for the Rockets, but this should be their year.

The Aztecs lose FBS' all-time leading rusher, but should continue to march on unabated in large part because that remains the worst division in FBS.  The top of the Mountain division should once again be a lot of fun, especially if Wyoming is able to ride Josh Allen's draft hype to an upset or two.

The South is a runaway for many reasons.  The Trojans will be good and they avoid North favorite Washington.  UCLA is in turmoil.  And everyone else doesn't quite have the talent to eclipse a fully operational USC.  Fun note: Utah is just above Colorado in the computer ratings, but suffers here due to the hardest schedule in the conference, which features the top four teams from the North and a road date with USC.  The Washington-Stanford game will probably decide the North, but Oregon and Washington State are still elite in enough areas to potentially become contenders (and neither of those two has to go to USC).

Auburn emerges as the main challenger to Bama because 1) they're probably a little better than LSU, 2) their cross-division games (@Mizzou, Georgia) are a little easier than LSU (@Tennessee, @Florida), and 3) they get Bama at home while LSU does not.  On the other side, it's not clear that the East will be particularly great, but the boatloads of returning talent should raise the floor as well as increase the possibility of a breakout.

You made it all the way to the end of this section, so here is your reward: a Sun Belt preview.  Appalachian State isn't that much better than Troy and Arkansas State, but they don't play either of them, so the road to a title (and maybe a sneaky major bowl bid) is as easy as it can be.  At the bottom, Texas State was so bad last year that they find themselves behind two teams about to be kicked out of the conference (Idaho, NM State) and a team that just joined FBS (Coastal).


Weekends, Ranked

Now for my favorite part: previewing every weekend of the season, and telling you what's going to be great about them. As I've done previously, I will use a rather crude formula called "Playoff Teams Lost" that simply multiplies the odds of each team losing by 1/3 of their playoff odds.  This means that middling games involving a top team will often be ranked ahead of a close-matched game between lower-ranked teams.  You may disagree with that methodology, but since the Playoff is so central to the game at this point, I think it is appropriate.  I have left out Week 0, as well as Championship week (there are still Sun Belt games then) and the Army-Navy week, as none of those weeks feature anything currently scheduled that will have playoff implications.

Week 1 - 0.224 playoff teams lost (Rank: 5th of 13)

1. Alabama (65% win probability) vs. Florida State - 0.160 playoff teams lost
2. Michigan (54%) vs. Florida - 0.014
3. Ohio State (95%) at Indiana - 0.012

After last year's "Best Opening Weekend Ever," this can't help but feel like a letdown.  Sure, we have the most impactful game of the year in Atlanta, but no other contender faces a particularly stiff challenge to start the season.  There are some nice matchups here and there (VT-WVU, UCLA-A&M, Tennessee-GT), but if you're thinking about the Playoff, there is just one game to care about.

Week 2 - 0.307 playoff teams lost (Rank: 2nd)

1. Oklahoma at Ohio State (70%) - 0.136
2. Auburn at Clemson (54%) - 0.069
3. Stanford at USC (58%) - 0.044
4. Georgia at Notre Dame (54%) - 0.019

A fine but lackluster Week 1 gives way to what I think is the best Saturday of the year.  All four of these games will be great and they all run concurrently at night.  Add in Nebraska's test against Oregon, a super-fun Wazzu-Boise game, the Penn State-Pitt rematch, and a half-dozen other great games, and you have a full Saturday of awesome. 

Week 3 - 0.169 playoff teams lost (Rank: 10th)

1. Miami at Florida State (80%) - 0.046
2. Clemson (62%) at Louisville - 0.033
3. LSU (75%) at Mississippi State - 0.018

A couple of weeks with marquee games give way to a deeper slate without the fanfare at the top.  Still, a weekend with these games as well as Texas-USC, BYU-Wisconsin, and Stanford at San Diego State should have enough intrigue to go around.

Week 4 - 0.150 playoff teams lost (Rank: 11th)

1. NC State at Florida State (86%) - 0.020
2. Oklahoma (83%) at Baylor - 0.017
3. Penn State (79%) at Iowa - 0.014

Since conferences tend to backload their biggest matchups these days, we get another subpar week as conference play gets rolling.  But if the Wolfpack are going to make a move, it starts here against a Seminole team that might be beat up from playing in the featured game 2 of the first 3 weeks.  So that's exciting enough.

Week 5 - 0.146 playoff teams lost (Rank: 12th)

1. Clemson (73%) at Virginia Tech - 0.021
2. USC (65%) at Washington State - 0.020
3. Northwestern at Wisconsin (80%) - 0.017

I am completely here for USC traveling to Pullman on a Friday night.  I am also here for one of the few matchups that may actually challenge Wisconsin.  Other than that, this is probably the weakest Saturday of the season.  So maybe plan something else exciting for the last day of September.

Week 6 - 0.184 playoff teams lost (Rank: 9th)

1. Alabama (86%) at Texas A&M - 0.035
2. LSU (59%) at Florida - 0.033
3. Penn State (71%) at Northwestern - 0.021

Northwestern makes the list again!  While the Wildcats should be legitimately good, their involvement in the third best game of the week can only indicate a subpar week.  In NC State Watch 2017 news, the Wolfpack and their amazing defensive line host the defending Heisman winner and his terrible offensive line, so that should be fun.

Week 7 - 0.214 playoff teams lost (Rank: 6th)

1. Auburn at LSU (50.0%) - 0.069
2. Texas vs Oklahoma (80%) - 0.021
3. Ohio State (93%) at Nebraska - 0.017

Week 7 is similar to the previous weeks in its mediocre depth, but has a great feature game at the top.  LSU-Auburn is not only an underrated rivalry and essentially a coin flip, but it will also likely determine who will be the main challenger to Alabama. 

Week 8 - 0.214 playoff teams lost (Rank: 7th)

1. Michigan at Penn State (63%) - 0.037
2. USC (55%) at Notre Dame - 0.037
3. Louisville at Florida State (80%) - 0.032

I'm a big fan of this weekend.  Michigan should have all their new places in piece by the time they face Penn State, USC faces their biggest challenge in the back half of the season, and Florida State tries to avenge last year's absolute drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals.  Beyond the top games, Oklahoma travels to Manhattan, Houston and Memphis face off in a pivotal game in the American, and Boise takes on the Josh Allen hype train.

Week 9 - 0.206 playoff teams lost (Rank: 8th)

1. Penn State at Ohio State (81%) - 0.095
2. UCLA at Washington (78%) - 0.015
3. NC State at Notre Dame (65%) - 0.012

The last week before things get crazy is a nice palate cleanser.  You get the one big matchup (OSU-PSU), a bunch of decent home tests for potential contenders (besides the ones above, you also get Clemson hosting GT and Oklahoma hosting Texas Tech), and the Cocktail Party, which should be the most pivotal game in the SEC East.

Week 10 - 0.302 playoff teams lost (Rank: 4th)

1. LSU at Alabama (81%) - 0.102
2. Oklahoma (72%) at Oklahoma State - 0.034
3 (tie). Auburn (71%) at Texas A&M - 0.022
3 (tie). Clemson (72%) at NC State - 0.022

An already great week becomes one of the best with two of the most impactful rivalries of the year leading the way.  Add in Pac-12 North intrigue (UW-Oregon and Wazzu-Stanford), a weird road trip to Iowa for the Buckeyes, and another fun game for NC State (who will surely be first in the playoff rankings at this point), and November should begin in a glorious fashion.

Week 11 - 0.306 playoff teams lost (Rank: 3rd)

1. Florida State (55%) at Clemson - 0.092
2. Washington (50.4%) at Stanford - 0.050
3. Georgia at Auburn (74%) - 0.027

That is a stunning top three games.  Divisions will be decided, and one or more legitimate playoff contender will almost certainly lose.  And I also bet a dollar that all three of those games will be in different time slots, as Washington-Stanford is on Friday.  We also have Oklahoma hosting TCU, Miami hosting Notre Dame, and the Tide traveling to StarkVegas, so the week is as deep as it is top-heavy.

Week 12 - 0.132 playoff teams lost (Rank: 13th)

1. Michigan at Wisconsin (63%) - 0.040
2. LSU (67%) at Tennessee - 0.024
3. UCLA at USC (75%) - 0.014

You probably can't tell from these top three games, but this is the weakest weekend of the year.  Most of the best teams have non-threatening assignments such as a bye, an FCS team, or a home game with Illinois.  Still, the top three plus a couple of other games that might be important if these season gets a bit weird (Okie State-KSU?  Georgia-Kentucky?) should make for good enough viewing for the so-called worst weekend.

Week 13 - 0.367 playoff teams lost (Rank: 1st)

1. Alabama (67%) at Auburn - 0.124
2. Ohio State (77%) at Michigan - 0.067
3. Florida State (71%) at Florida - 0.040

After a relative down year, Rivalry Week is back with a vengeance.  If the top three teams are still the top three teams at this point, they will all face road games against their most hated rivals, who should all be pretty good at the very least.  Stanford-Notre Dame and the Apple Cup also happen, and NC State should be wrapping up a 12-0 regular season against the Tar Heels.  What's not to love?

Beer in Columbus 2.0

Last summer I ranked most of the breweries in the Columbus metro, in part because I had the time, and in part because the Columbus Ale Trail motivated me to visit places I had never been.  Fast forward a year, and I completed the trail in even faster time because why not.  This allowed for a second chance for some breweries I hadn't had anything from as well as visits to brand new places.  Let's write about it, if for no other reason than to justify my degenerate behavior.

You may notice the Ale Trail has 37 stops while my list is a little shorter than that.  Here is why:

1. I didn't include the chain breweries.  Some of these are OK places to grab a drink, but as most of their beers are brewed to a national standard, they don't fully qualify as Columbus originals.  This eliminates Brew Brothers, The RAM, Gordon Biersch, and Hofbrauhaus (it also eliminates BJ's, but that isn't on the Ale Trail for some reason).  That brings us to 33.

2. I didn't include the breweries that were second locations for legitimate microbreweries.  Yes most of the beer is brewed here, but like category #1, it largely adheres to designs of the motherships.  This eliminates Platform and BrewDog, bringing our count to 31.

3. I rolled up the second locations of breweries that have two locations on the Ale Trail.  This eliminates the duplicates for Rockmill, Four String, and Elevator, which leaves us with 28.

4. Finally, I added in a certain brewery with a eponymous restaurant they're not on friendly terms with, because they're the obvious godfather of beer in Columbus, and it would be weird not to include them.  And thus, we arrive at our final number of 29.

(I didn't include a couple of breweries that don't have taprooms - Commonhouse and Granville - because they don't make a bunch of different beers, and I haven't had many of them anyway).  Onto the list!

#29 Knotty Pine Brewing (link) - 1 Star

Knotty Pine was second from last in the previous version of this list, and since that time I have been there once, where I had a session pale that tasted like juice (but not in the good way).  It's a nice enough space in a good location in the middle of residential Grandview, but they don't brew enough beer and they certainly don't brew enough good beer.  Oh well, someone has to be last.

#28 Elevator Brewing (link) - 1 Star

Elevator makes old-tasting beers.  So maybe it's a good thing they hired a new brewmaster.  Still, I have to grade you on what you've done to date, so Elevator gets slotted here.  In recent visits, I have appreciated the effort with the NEIPA-inspired Pulp Smash, but the beer wasn't cloudy and it was entirely too sweet without enough bite to back it up.  If you must visit here, stick to the Mogabi, which has the best all-around balance of their usual offerings.

#27 Grove City Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

If you follow the hyperlink above, you'll see that the website for the brewery is an afterthought on the page for its sister winery.  This is a pretty good representation of what you'll get if you go to Grove City for beer.  Nothing was outright awful, but I didn't get the sense of true inspiration from anything.  The Hint of Orange Pale was probably their best offering when I went, but that's only because I'm a sucker for beers with orange in them.

#26 Pigskin Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

Pigskin is the epitome of a brewery that isn't terrible but also doesn't do anything special.  They generally have a good idea of how to highlight hops, but everything comes out with too light of a mouthfeel.  I can totally see Pigskin as a place that would have been awesome to me ten years ago, but it just doesn't do enough to stick out in today's market.

#25 Zaftig Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

And now we enter the portion of the list where we start to find some faintly redeeming qualities.  Zaftig's dedication to high gravity behemoths is relatively unique, and you occasionally get a worthy malt bomb out of it.  But I've never had an IPA that worked from them and nothing else distinguishes itself enough to elevate it past here on the list.  They do get points for defiantly positioning their brewpub in the shadow of the Budweiser plant.

#24 Buckeye Lake Brewery (link) - 1 Star

I really want to like Buckeye Lake, as it has the nice vibe of being a couple of blocks away from a lake.  But there's nothing that special here.  The Legend Valley IPA is fine, but like the other offerings it's a beer that is fine for its style but nothing more.  They are one of the few places in the area to offer crowlers, which would be cool if there was something worth taking home 32 ounces of.

#23 Three Tigers Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

This is a solid brunch spot just off the main street in Granville, but just an OK beer spot.  I had a perfectly fine wit, kolsch, and IPA there, but the DIPA (Hoptic Nerve) lacked a defined hop presence.  This pattern of well-executed, if basic, staples and higher gravity beers that miss the mark echoes Buckeye Lake to a tee.

#22 Temperance Row Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

Third of three in a series of breweries that have the same basic strengths and flaws.  Temperance Row is a touch better than the other two because of how solid the maltier offerings are.  I've had good dark beers (Scofflaw and Forty Ton) as well as a nice English pale (Hatchetation).  But they always seem to struggle with their IPAs, which is going to hold them back from a higher rating.

#21 Restoration Brew Worx (link) - 1 Star

The second best brewery in Delaware is tough to rank.  They appear to have a little more ambition that some other places, but their success in those endeavors is mixed.  I had a lovely Belgian IPA on my first visit, but the DIPA was middling.  They had just run out of their imperial stout on my last visit, which would have given me a better idea of their range.  And their main IPA (Judgment) is nice and citrus-y but also kind of a mess.  So I'll throw up my hands and rank them here.

#20 Smokehouse Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

It feels weird to drop Smokehouse down to the lowest rating, but I have to.  The NEIPA I had recently (Mohbee) was the worst thing I had on this iteration of the Ale Trail.  It wasn't cloudy, didn't have much carbonation, and tasted overly sweet.  Add in that there's nothing special about their regular lineup, and a one star rating make sense.  Their barrel-aged ale (Ess) was really well done, but they need to bring more than that to move up the list.

#19 Zauber Brewing Company (RIP) - 1.5 Stars

The first casualty in Columbus beer since I moved here five years ago, Zauber recently sold their place and their equipment.  There will still be a brewery in the space along Fifth Avenue, but it will have a new name and new beers.  Zauber was never anything special, but they executed a number of classic styles well, and I could walk to it from my old apartment.

#18 Homestead Beer Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

I typically find that the quality among beers within a brewery is relatively stable.  Yes, everyone has their stars and their duds, but there's generally a range of expected quality that I can expect from each place.  Homestead bucks this trend by being pretty disappointing save for a couple of pretty damn good beers.  3 MCs is a DIPA that balances the citrus and bitterness well and Snake Oil is a solid pale ale in a similar vein.  So I'll give them the half star bump based on a little bit of upside.  Their brewery is probably the most randomly located as it occupies a small space alongside a large Boeing plant south of Heath.

#17 Four String Brewing Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

I put Four String in the top ten last time largely because they make a lot of varieties (the taproom usually has about 15 things on tap) and do a pretty good job with most of them.  But in the age of ever increasing options, that's no longer as important as it once was.  A place with six or eight really good and/or unique things on tap is just more interesting now (see the next several entries on the list).  And even if you pared down Four String's offerings to the best half-dozen, I'm not sure they would stack up to the next few places on the list.  The Brass Knuckle pale ale is still pretty good, though.

#16 Loose Rail Brewing (link) - 1.5 Stars

There's an off chance I'm putting this a few spots too high because of the adorable old building that houses Loose Rail (click the link above for the background picture on their website).  That said, I had a nice variety of beers (stout, saison, and a couple IPAs) that were all quite competent.  The DIPA (Freight Hopper) was probably the best of the bunch, as a slightly sweet malt bomb that retained enough balance to make sense for the style.

#15 Barley's Brewing Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

This is the exact middle of the list, and I can't think of a brewery that fits the spot better.  Will you have anything groundbreaking at Barley's?  Probably not.  But, virtually every offering is well executed and distinct.  The continued existence of Barley's proves that an old brewery can learn new tricks while still staying true to itself.

#14 Combustion Brewery (link) - 2 Stars

The most promising of the new breweries, Combustion does a lot of things well.  First off, they have a large space which allows for both a place for bands to play and a kid's corner complete with a train table (this comes in handy now for some reason).  Most importantly, the beer is good in both quality and quantity.  The lighter options were all interesting, with a Citra session ale and a coffee-infused blonde ale being the highlights.  But the IPA* was the highlight.  A nice medium-bodied ale with a smoothness to the hop profile that has to be from Nelson hops (I think?), I would say that it's already a top-five IPA in the city.  I'm excited to see where they go from here.

*The IPA is just called "Combustion IPA."  Name your beers people! 

#13 Kindred Beer (link) - 2 Stars

I gave Kindred 1.5 stars last year, largely on the promise of their barreling program.  A couple months ago, this promise finally bore fruit, when they released their first two sour beers.  I had one of them (Spring Thaw), and was not disappointed.  The sourness was right down the middle - noticeably tart but not too dominant - which allowed for the faintest hint of the grapes to come through.  Yes, this first effort wasn't as polished as the places that have been doing this for years, but it's a very promising step towards something potentially special.

#12 Actual Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Actual doesn't have the same level of variety as other local brewers, but they make up for it with a nice regular offering of beers and occasional experimentation.  The three beers I've had from them since last year paint this picture for me.  Magnon, their regular IPA, is as solid and straightforward of an ale as you can make.  Galvani is a progressive experimental pale ale that changes the recipe each time (much like Seventh Son's Scientist).  And their special release from 2015 (Levitron - a barrel-aged sour stout) was a nicely balanced treat, although one with a slightly thin mouthfeel.  Also, their taproom adds a new room each time you visit, so that keeps you on your toes.

#11 Sideswipe Brewing (link) - 2 Stars

I have trouble rating Sideswipe properly, because even though I know it's imperfect, I still love it so.  Almost every beer in their portfolio has a deftly light touch that allows the drinker to easily understand exactly what the brewer was aiming for and why.  The DIPA Hop Tat and any of its varieties.  The Raspberry Berliner Weiss from their anniversary party.  Any of their beers infused with coffee.  There's a subtlety and a purpose to each one, which makes for a rewarding drinking experience.

#10 Ill Mannered Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Ill Mannered rotates through different brews often, so it gets points for always having something new to try.  Sometimes those beers are amazing (like the juicy red IPA MisRed or the Simcoe-soaked DIPA Palate Fatigue), and others less so (40th Pale-llel, which has that funky taste you sometimes get with Mosaic).  Still, most everything is good, so you will probably be happy if you get a sampler.  I also award them bonus points for being located a couple of blocks from downtown Powell, which has the best density of good restaurants in the metro.

#9 Lineage Brewing (link) - 2 Stars

If you take Ill Mannered, move it 15 miles south, and triple the size of the tap room, you have Lineage.  They rotate through a lot of different beers, some good and some less so, but the upside keeps you coming back.  The beers I've had recently (the New England-inspired pale ale Space Echo and the kettle sour Passionate Bernice were both appropriately juicy) have been consistently good, so it is possible there is even further upside here.

#8 Staas Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Places further down the list may have more upside, but there are none outside the top eight with the combination of variety and consistency that Staas displays.  A good deal of their menu is dedicated to well-done European styles, culminating in their bizarrely unique house ale (which uses the cask perfectly).  On the pale ale side, every offering highlights a different capability of the style: The Presidential is piney, The Baron is full of citrus, and The Pacer is half bready malts and half tropical hops.  I'm glad the Ale Trail forces me to venture up to Delaware once a year.

#7 Land Grant Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Land Grant cans a bigger variety of beer than anyone else in Columbus (save #1 on the list, but they're a different story entirely).  That there are very few duds is a testament to Land Grant's high floor.  And occasionally we see their relatively high ceiling: Batch 300 was a delightfully juicy DIPA, Godspeed almost got me to like Black IPAs, and Stevesy showed how to make a good, subtle lager. They also colonized Franklinton before the inevitable gentrification, so props to them for that.

#6 North High Brewing Company (link) - 2.5 Stars

North High continues to have perhaps the highest floor in town, as I don't think I've ever had a bad beer from them.  And the last year has seen them top themselves with one of my favorite new local beers, the Bowie-themed DIPA Stardust to Stardust.  The regular offerings in cans (pale ale, IPA, milk stout) remain among the best readily available version of those beers in town. 

#5 Rockmill Brewery (link) - 2.5 Stars

Still executing classic Belgian styles better than anyone around, Rockmill stays in the top five.  They did add a few wrinkles this year, though.  First of all, the new tavern in the Brewery District is a wonderful place for brunch, and appears to have roughly the same level of variety that the farmhouse does.  Second, they added (at least it's new to me) a wonderful cherry sour that's a really nice counterpoint to their typically more funky offerings.

#4 Wolf's Ridge Brewing (link) - 3 Stars

So I bumped a fourth brewery up to the 3-star level this time.  Wolf's Ridge deserves it, as they continue to do the same things well (Driftwood is a great little IPA, the various Direwolves are all fantastic), while adding an extremely unique wrinkle: the Clear Sky line of cream ales.  Whether it be lemon meringue, cinnamon toast, or the best one "All the Breakfast," Wolf's Ridge manages to make actual good beer out of ideas that really shouldn't work as beer.  And when you're able to stand out on that many fronts, you get recognized for it.

#3 Seventh Son Brewing Company (link) - 3 Stars

Seventh Son has "stood still" a little more than the other breweries at the top of this list, but that doesn't mean they've fallen off.  Their main set of beers (the strong ale, Humulus Nimbus, and Proliferous) might still be the best group in town, while the more experimental side of things is never boring, at the very least.  I'm pretty pumped for the forthcoming expansion plans, as Columbus could use more places focusing on barreling and sours.

#2 Columbus Brewing Company (link) - 3 Stars

So they finally started bottling Bodhi.  And Creeper.  And Sohio Stout.  And Thunderlips.  And more.  CBC's always been at the pinnacle of brewing in Columbus, but there was a definite disconnect between the quality of their output and one's ability to easily produce their best beers.  With the expansion helping them to re-focus on their best beers, CBC leaps back to #2 on the list.

#1 Hoof Hearted Brewing (link) - 4 Stars

I could spend time picking at the imperfections with some of Hoof's beers, but that would be silly because Hoof is fantastic.  The NEIPAs steal the show, but there's also a lot of good work going on with the kettle sours and the dark stuff.  Most importantly, Hoof manages to surprise and to subvert expectations, even though those expectations are already sky high.  One notable way in which they do this is with their line of single-hop DIPAs.  The version for two of my favorite hops (Simcoe and El Dorado) were fine, but they paled in comparison to the Equinox version, which is a hop I had forgotten about until I started writing this blurb.  I can't wait to see what's in store as Hoof continues to expand and mature.