CFP Predictor - Year 3

As the fourth year of the College Football Playoff approaches, we seem to have everything figured out while still knowing nothing for sure.  Three years of committee selections have suggested the criteria for playoff inclusion while never quite confirming them.  A team's number of losses appears to be paramount, but 2014 Florida State ranked only third in spite of being the only undefeated team.  Conference titles are routinely mentioned as a factor, but we've had literally zero conference championship week drama to test this theory.  And while schedule strength is clearly important, we still don't have a firm, shared definition of what it means (and we definitely don't know what even more nebulous concepts like "scheduling intent" ultimately mean).  The first three years of playoff selection have passed with relatively little controversy, but all it will take to upend this seeming harmony is one crazy season.  As it just happens to be the tenth anniversary of the craziest season ever, here's hoping that history repeats.

As usual, my role in all of this is to attempt to add some semblance of order to the chaos.  That takes the form of my College Football Playoff prediction model.  The basic structure of this model is the same as last year, with a couple minor tweaks and an additional year of data added.  I'll rehash the basics of the model in the next paragraph, but please read last year's post if you want more detail.

The model simulates the season using an aggregate team strength rating that combines ESPN's FPI, Jeff Sagarin's Pure Points metric, and Bill Connelly's S&P+.  Once that simulation is complete, I sum up the number of times each power conference team finishes with 0, 1, and 2 losses and the number of times each group of five team finishes undefeated (this represents the four "buckets" of teams that have made the top four in the BCS/playoff era).  I also calculate an average strength of schedule for each team, using the NCAA's basic definition of SOS.  Once I have this information, I determine how likely a team is to make the playoff for each bucket, and then sum those up.  For the power conference 0-loss bucket, I assign a 100% chance for each instance, as no eligible team has ever missed the top four.  For the other three buckets I assign the probability based on a logistic regression that uses the past 19 years of BCS*/playoff outcomes as data and the SOS calculation as an input.  Finally, I adjust these playoff odds so that the sum of all teams' likelihoods equals to 4.  Most of the time this means increasing the odds for all teams**, which I do by adjusting the coefficients of the logistic regression using my old buddy Solver.  The results of this are my playoff odds.

*Once we have more playoff data, I will either limit or heavily weight the model towards that.  For the time being though, I think BCS data is a fairly good proxy of the committee's logic.

**I'm not precisely sure why the sum of initial playoff odds generally comes up short of 4, but I'm guessing it's either 1) that pre-season projections inherently clump teams together or 2) my simulation assuming complete independence of game results when that's not quite the case


The Rankings

Below are the initial playoff odds for 2017.  I have only included the teams that finished at least one of my 10,000 simulations with two or fewer losses (or zero losses for group of five teams).  This means that the best team left out is either Cal or Iowa State.  I think we're safe.

Rank	Team	Agg Rank	POFF Prob
1	Alabama	1	70.31%
2	Ohio State	2	67.45%
3	Florida State	3	35.88%
4	Oklahoma	4	29.54%
5	Wisconsin	9	21.17%
6	Clemson	6	20.90%
7	LSU	7	20.87%
8	Auburn	5	20.71%
9	Penn State	10	19.03%
10	Washington	8	18.37%
11	USC	11	15.00%
12	Stanford	12	11.93%
13	Miami (FL)	15	8.15%
14	Notre Dame	18	7.88%
15	Michigan	13	6.46%
16	Georgia	14	3.76%
17	Louisville	16	3.08%
18	Oklahoma State	19	2.54%
19	Florida	17	2.31%
20	TCU	20	1.56%
21	Oregon	25	1.54%
22	Washington State	27	1.38%
23	North Carolina State	24	1.16%
24	Texas A&M	21	0.99%
25	Virginia Tech	28	0.87%
26	Northwestern	31	0.85%
27	Memphis	39	0.73%
28	Tennessee	22	0.60%
29	UCLA	26	0.56%
30	Kansas State	29	0.46%
31	Texas	23	0.43%
32	Toledo	55	0.40%
33	North Carolina	34	0.34%
34	Houston	48	0.31%
35	Boise State	46	0.28%
36	Arkansas	30	0.27%
37	Baylor	36	0.25%
38	Mississippi State	32	0.24%
39	Georgia Tech	33	0.20%
40	South Florida	49	0.18%
41	Ole Miss	35	0.14%
42	Iowa	40	0.11%
43	Nebraska	44	0.10%
44	Pitt	38	0.09%
45	Michigan State	50	0.08%
46	South Carolina	37	0.08%
47	Utah	42	0.07%
48	Western Kentucky	69	0.07%
49	Kentucky	41	0.06%
50	Colorado	43	0.04%
51	San Diego State	61	0.04%
52	BYU	47	0.03%
53	Tulsa	72	0.02%
54	West Virginia	45	0.02%
55	Western Michigan	70	0.02%
56	Missouri	52	0.01%
57	Appalachian State	66	0.01%
58	Syracuse	56	0.01%
59	Troy	77	0.01%
60	Central Florida	68	0.01%
61	Minnesota	65	0.01%
62	Indiana	57	0.01%
63	Duke	54	0.01%
64	Arizona State	51	0.01%
65	Vanderbilt	53	0.00%
66	Colorado State	63	0.00%
67	Arizona	62	0.00%
68	Wake Forest	60	0.00%
69	Louisiana Tech	79	0.00%
70	Texas Tech	59	0.00%
71	Oregon State	58	0.00%
72	Arkansas State	83	0.00%
73	Middle Tennessee	86	0.00%

The top four teams in the aggregate computer ratings are also the top four in playoff odds, with Alabama and Ohio State pulling away from everyone else.  Ohio State has by far the best chance of finishing undefeated (25% to Bama's 18%), but Bama's SOS means that a hypothetical one-loss Tide is almost certain to make the field, which gives the teams roughly equal odds of a playoff berth.  Florida State is closer to the top two in the aggregate ratings than the rest of the field, but suffers from a likely loss to Bama to start the season.  Oklahoma takes the spot that most pundits have reserved for USC because 1) the Sooners will probably be better than USC in spite of losing their coach and their best skill position players, and 2) the Big 12's new title game scheme makes it really likely (87%) that the Sooners will get to play an additional game that they should be favored in.

The rest of the rankings are largely as you might expect.  Notre Dame may be surprising as they aren't ranked in most publications, but there's too much talent in South Bend for the team to go 4-8 again (I hope).  Breaking everything down by conference shows that the SEC and Big Ten have a leg up on everyone, as you might expect when you have half the top 15 to yourselves.

Conference	Exp Playoff Teams
SEC	1.204
B10	1.153
ACC	0.707
P12	0.489
B12	0.348
IND	0.079
AMER	0.012
MWC	0.006
MAC	0.004
CUSA	0.001
SB	0.000

Conference Title Races

When I did this last year, Colorado and Wyoming had the lowest odds in their respective divisions, and then went on to win the damn things.  So what I'm saying is that you should take teams with 2% odds at least 2% more seriously than you previously were.

 

There's roughly a one in four chance of the ACC finally getting the matchup it desired when it put the Canes and the Noles in separate divisions over a decade ago.  But there's enough intrigue (especially in the Atlantic) such that nothing is a given.  Everyone's 2017 darling NC State would have better odds in perhaps literally every other division (kill divisions).  And Virginia (who will be quite bad) has weirdly high odds until you remember that almost everyone else in the division is replacing their QB.

 

South Florida is getting a lot of love this offseason (some of it deserved), but the numbers say the rest of the American is a lot closer to the Bulls than you think.  For the record, last year's projections were similarly weighted towards a Houston-USF title game, and that most decidedly did not happen.

Ohio State will be very good, but I can't help but feel that this overstates their odds a bit.  In related news Michigan currently sits at 9% to win the division, but that's also basically where a little team called Penn State was a year ago.  On the other side, Wisconsin's schedule is absolute cake.  If they take care of Northwestern at home on the last day of September, I don't think anyone else catches them.

The new-fangled Big 12 title game is good in that it scraps divisions and just pairs up the top two teams.  This should allow us to avoid some of the less attractive matchups we've seen elsewhere in recent years.  That said, should Oklahoma really be as strong as the numbers say, this will have the unfortunate side effect of giving them the toughest possible matchup to close out the season.  In other news, I'm not really sure why West Virginia is ranked to start the season.  While I sure do love Dana Holgorsen on a personal level, he hasn't yet proven he can turn a rebuilding year (which 2017 most definitely is) into something special.

The numbers like a rematch of last year's title game, but there's enough turnover (with Jeff Brohm leaving WKU for Purdue) that I wouldn't be shocked if something weirder happened.  Also, UAB BACK!

Toledo hasn't had a losing record since 2009, but they also haven't been to the MAC title game since 2004.  Existing at the same time as the NIU dynasty and PJ Fleck's brief insurgence has made life tough for the Rockets, but this should be their year.

The Aztecs lose FBS' all-time leading rusher, but should continue to march on unabated in large part because that remains the worst division in FBS.  The top of the Mountain division should once again be a lot of fun, especially if Wyoming is able to ride Josh Allen's draft hype to an upset or two.

The South is a runaway for many reasons.  The Trojans will be good and they avoid North favorite Washington.  UCLA is in turmoil.  And everyone else doesn't quite have the talent to eclipse a fully operational USC.  Fun note: Utah is just above Colorado in the computer ratings, but suffers here due to the hardest schedule in the conference, which features the top four teams from the North and a road date with USC.  The Washington-Stanford game will probably decide the North, but Oregon and Washington State are still elite in enough areas to potentially become contenders (and neither of those two has to go to USC).

Auburn emerges as the main challenger to Bama because 1) they're probably a little better than LSU, 2) their cross-division games (@Mizzou, Georgia) are a little easier than LSU (@Tennessee, @Florida), and 3) they get Bama at home while LSU does not.  On the other side, it's not clear that the East will be particularly great, but the boatloads of returning talent should raise the floor as well as increase the possibility of a breakout.

You made it all the way to the end of this section, so here is your reward: a Sun Belt preview.  Appalachian State isn't that much better than Troy and Arkansas State, but they don't play either of them, so the road to a title (and maybe a sneaky major bowl bid) is as easy as it can be.  At the bottom, Texas State was so bad last year that they find themselves behind two teams about to be kicked out of the conference (Idaho, NM State) and a team that just joined FBS (Coastal).


Weekends, Ranked

Now for my favorite part: previewing every weekend of the season, and telling you what's going to be great about them. As I've done previously, I will use a rather crude formula called "Playoff Teams Lost" that simply multiplies the odds of each team losing by 1/3 of their playoff odds.  This means that middling games involving a top team will often be ranked ahead of a close-matched game between lower-ranked teams.  You may disagree with that methodology, but since the Playoff is so central to the game at this point, I think it is appropriate.  I have left out Week 0, as well as Championship week (there are still Sun Belt games then) and the Army-Navy week, as none of those weeks feature anything currently scheduled that will have playoff implications.

Week 1 - 0.224 playoff teams lost (Rank: 5th of 13)

1. Alabama (65% win probability) vs. Florida State - 0.160 playoff teams lost
2. Michigan (54%) vs. Florida - 0.014
3. Ohio State (95%) at Indiana - 0.012

After last year's "Best Opening Weekend Ever," this can't help but feel like a letdown.  Sure, we have the most impactful game of the year in Atlanta, but no other contender faces a particularly stiff challenge to start the season.  There are some nice matchups here and there (VT-WVU, UCLA-A&M, Tennessee-GT), but if you're thinking about the Playoff, there is just one game to care about.

Week 2 - 0.307 playoff teams lost (Rank: 2nd)

1. Oklahoma at Ohio State (70%) - 0.136
2. Auburn at Clemson (54%) - 0.069
3. Stanford at USC (58%) - 0.044
4. Georgia at Notre Dame (54%) - 0.019

A fine but lackluster Week 1 gives way to what I think is the best Saturday of the year.  All four of these games will be great and they all run concurrently at night.  Add in Nebraska's test against Oregon, a super-fun Wazzu-Boise game, the Penn State-Pitt rematch, and a half-dozen other great games, and you have a full Saturday of awesome. 

Week 3 - 0.169 playoff teams lost (Rank: 10th)

1. Miami at Florida State (80%) - 0.046
2. Clemson (62%) at Louisville - 0.033
3. LSU (75%) at Mississippi State - 0.018

A couple of weeks with marquee games give way to a deeper slate without the fanfare at the top.  Still, a weekend with these games as well as Texas-USC, BYU-Wisconsin, and Stanford at San Diego State should have enough intrigue to go around.

Week 4 - 0.150 playoff teams lost (Rank: 11th)

1. NC State at Florida State (86%) - 0.020
2. Oklahoma (83%) at Baylor - 0.017
3. Penn State (79%) at Iowa - 0.014

Since conferences tend to backload their biggest matchups these days, we get another subpar week as conference play gets rolling.  But if the Wolfpack are going to make a move, it starts here against a Seminole team that might be beat up from playing in the featured game 2 of the first 3 weeks.  So that's exciting enough.

Week 5 - 0.146 playoff teams lost (Rank: 12th)

1. Clemson (73%) at Virginia Tech - 0.021
2. USC (65%) at Washington State - 0.020
3. Northwestern at Wisconsin (80%) - 0.017

I am completely here for USC traveling to Pullman on a Friday night.  I am also here for one of the few matchups that may actually challenge Wisconsin.  Other than that, this is probably the weakest Saturday of the season.  So maybe plan something else exciting for the last day of September.

Week 6 - 0.184 playoff teams lost (Rank: 9th)

1. Alabama (86%) at Texas A&M - 0.035
2. LSU (59%) at Florida - 0.033
3. Penn State (71%) at Northwestern - 0.021

Northwestern makes the list again!  While the Wildcats should be legitimately good, their involvement in the third best game of the week can only indicate a subpar week.  In NC State Watch 2017 news, the Wolfpack and their amazing defensive line host the defending Heisman winner and his terrible offensive line, so that should be fun.

Week 7 - 0.214 playoff teams lost (Rank: 6th)

1. Auburn at LSU (50.0%) - 0.069
2. Texas vs Oklahoma (80%) - 0.021
3. Ohio State (93%) at Nebraska - 0.017

Week 7 is similar to the previous weeks in its mediocre depth, but has a great feature game at the top.  LSU-Auburn is not only an underrated rivalry and essentially a coin flip, but it will also likely determine who will be the main challenger to Alabama. 

Week 8 - 0.214 playoff teams lost (Rank: 7th)

1. Michigan at Penn State (63%) - 0.037
2. USC (55%) at Notre Dame - 0.037
3. Louisville at Florida State (80%) - 0.032

I'm a big fan of this weekend.  Michigan should have all their new places in piece by the time they face Penn State, USC faces their biggest challenge in the back half of the season, and Florida State tries to avenge last year's absolute drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals.  Beyond the top games, Oklahoma travels to Manhattan, Houston and Memphis face off in a pivotal game in the American, and Boise takes on the Josh Allen hype train.

Week 9 - 0.206 playoff teams lost (Rank: 8th)

1. Penn State at Ohio State (81%) - 0.095
2. UCLA at Washington (78%) - 0.015
3. NC State at Notre Dame (65%) - 0.012

The last week before things get crazy is a nice palate cleanser.  You get the one big matchup (OSU-PSU), a bunch of decent home tests for potential contenders (besides the ones above, you also get Clemson hosting GT and Oklahoma hosting Texas Tech), and the Cocktail Party, which should be the most pivotal game in the SEC East.

Week 10 - 0.302 playoff teams lost (Rank: 4th)

1. LSU at Alabama (81%) - 0.102
2. Oklahoma (72%) at Oklahoma State - 0.034
3 (tie). Auburn (71%) at Texas A&M - 0.022
3 (tie). Clemson (72%) at NC State - 0.022

An already great week becomes one of the best with two of the most impactful rivalries of the year leading the way.  Add in Pac-12 North intrigue (UW-Oregon and Wazzu-Stanford), a weird road trip to Iowa for the Buckeyes, and another fun game for NC State (who will surely be first in the playoff rankings at this point), and November should begin in a glorious fashion.

Week 11 - 0.306 playoff teams lost (Rank: 3rd)

1. Florida State (55%) at Clemson - 0.092
2. Washington (50.4%) at Stanford - 0.050
3. Georgia at Auburn (74%) - 0.027

That is a stunning top three games.  Divisions will be decided, and one or more legitimate playoff contender will almost certainly lose.  And I also bet a dollar that all three of those games will be in different time slots, as Washington-Stanford is on Friday.  We also have Oklahoma hosting TCU, Miami hosting Notre Dame, and the Tide traveling to StarkVegas, so the week is as deep as it is top-heavy.

Week 12 - 0.132 playoff teams lost (Rank: 13th)

1. Michigan at Wisconsin (63%) - 0.040
2. LSU (67%) at Tennessee - 0.024
3. UCLA at USC (75%) - 0.014

You probably can't tell from these top three games, but this is the weakest weekend of the year.  Most of the best teams have non-threatening assignments such as a bye, an FCS team, or a home game with Illinois.  Still, the top three plus a couple of other games that might be important if these season gets a bit weird (Okie State-KSU?  Georgia-Kentucky?) should make for good enough viewing for the so-called worst weekend.

Week 13 - 0.367 playoff teams lost (Rank: 1st)

1. Alabama (67%) at Auburn - 0.124
2. Ohio State (77%) at Michigan - 0.067
3. Florida State (71%) at Florida - 0.040

After a relative down year, Rivalry Week is back with a vengeance.  If the top three teams are still the top three teams at this point, they will all face road games against their most hated rivals, who should all be pretty good at the very least.  Stanford-Notre Dame and the Apple Cup also happen, and NC State should be wrapping up a 12-0 regular season against the Tar Heels.  What's not to love?

Beer in Columbus 2.0

Last summer I ranked most of the breweries in the Columbus metro, in part because I had the time, and in part because the Columbus Ale Trail motivated me to visit places I had never been.  Fast forward a year, and I completed the trail in even faster time because why not.  This allowed for a second chance for some breweries I hadn't had anything from as well as visits to brand new places.  Let's write about it, if for no other reason than to justify my degenerate behavior.

You may notice the Ale Trail has 37 stops while my list is a little shorter than that.  Here is why:

1. I didn't include the chain breweries.  Some of these are OK places to grab a drink, but as most of their beers are brewed to a national standard, they don't fully qualify as Columbus originals.  This eliminates Brew Brothers, The RAM, Gordon Biersch, and Hofbrauhaus (it also eliminates BJ's, but that isn't on the Ale Trail for some reason).  That brings us to 33.

2. I didn't include the breweries that were second locations for legitimate microbreweries.  Yes most of the beer is brewed here, but like category #1, it largely adheres to designs of the motherships.  This eliminates Platform and BrewDog, bringing our count to 31.

3. I rolled up the second locations of breweries that have two locations on the Ale Trail.  This eliminates the duplicates for Rockmill, Four String, and Elevator, which leaves us with 28.

4. Finally, I added in a certain brewery with a eponymous restaurant they're not on friendly terms with, because they're the obvious godfather of beer in Columbus, and it would be weird not to include them.  And thus, we arrive at our final number of 29.

(I didn't include a couple of breweries that don't have taprooms - Commonhouse and Granville - because they don't make a bunch of different beers, and I haven't had many of them anyway).  Onto the list!

#29 Knotty Pine Brewing (link) - 1 Star

Knotty Pine was second from last in the previous version of this list, and since that time I have been there once, where I had a session pale that tasted like juice (but not in the good way).  It's a nice enough space in a good location in the middle of residential Grandview, but they don't brew enough beer and they certainly don't brew enough good beer.  Oh well, someone has to be last.

#28 Elevator Brewing (link) - 1 Star

Elevator makes old-tasting beers.  So maybe it's a good thing they hired a new brewmaster.  Still, I have to grade you on what you've done to date, so Elevator gets slotted here.  In recent visits, I have appreciated the effort with the NEIPA-inspired Pulp Smash, but the beer wasn't cloudy and it was entirely too sweet without enough bite to back it up.  If you must visit here, stick to the Mogabi, which has the best all-around balance of their usual offerings.

#27 Grove City Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

If you follow the hyperlink above, you'll see that the website for the brewery is an afterthought on the page for its sister winery.  This is a pretty good representation of what you'll get if you go to Grove City for beer.  Nothing was outright awful, but I didn't get the sense of true inspiration from anything.  The Hint of Orange Pale was probably their best offering when I went, but that's only because I'm a sucker for beers with orange in them.

#26 Pigskin Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

Pigskin is the epitome of a brewery that isn't terrible but also doesn't do anything special.  They generally have a good idea of how to highlight hops, but everything comes out with too light of a mouthfeel.  I can totally see Pigskin as a place that would have been awesome to me ten years ago, but it just doesn't do enough to stick out in today's market.

#25 Zaftig Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

And now we enter the portion of the list where we start to find some faintly redeeming qualities.  Zaftig's dedication to high gravity behemoths is relatively unique, and you occasionally get a worthy malt bomb out of it.  But I've never had an IPA that worked from them and nothing else distinguishes itself enough to elevate it past here on the list.  They do get points for defiantly positioning their brewpub in the shadow of the Budweiser plant.

#24 Buckeye Lake Brewery (link) - 1 Star

I really want to like Buckeye Lake, as it has the nice vibe of being a couple of blocks away from a lake.  But there's nothing that special here.  The Legend Valley IPA is fine, but like the other offerings it's a beer that is fine for its style but nothing more.  They are one of the few places in the area to offer crowlers, which would be cool if there was something worth taking home 32 ounces of.

#23 Three Tigers Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

This is a solid brunch spot just off the main street in Granville, but just an OK beer spot.  I had a perfectly fine wit, kolsch, and IPA there, but the DIPA (Hoptic Nerve) lacked a defined hop presence.  This pattern of well-executed, if basic, staples and higher gravity beers that miss the mark echoes Buckeye Lake to a tee.

#22 Temperance Row Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

Third of three in a series of breweries that have the same basic strengths and flaws.  Temperance Row is a touch better than the other two because of how solid the maltier offerings are.  I've had good dark beers (Scofflaw and Forty Ton) as well as a nice English pale (Hatchetation).  But they always seem to struggle with their IPAs, which is going to hold them back from a higher rating.

#21 Restoration Brew Worx (link) - 1 Star

The second best brewery in Delaware is tough to rank.  They appear to have a little more ambition that some other places, but their success in those endeavors is mixed.  I had a lovely Belgian IPA on my first visit, but the DIPA was middling.  They had just run out of their imperial stout on my last visit, which would have given me a better idea of their range.  And their main IPA (Judgment) is nice and citrus-y but also kind of a mess.  So I'll throw up my hands and rank them here.

#20 Smokehouse Brewing Company (link) - 1 Star

It feels weird to drop Smokehouse down to the lowest rating, but I have to.  The NEIPA I had recently (Mohbee) was the worst thing I had on this iteration of the Ale Trail.  It wasn't cloudy, didn't have much carbonation, and tasted overly sweet.  Add in that there's nothing special about their regular lineup, and a one star rating make sense.  Their barrel-aged ale (Ess) was really well done, but they need to bring more than that to move up the list.

#19 Zauber Brewing Company (RIP) - 1.5 Stars

The first casualty in Columbus beer since I moved here five years ago, Zauber recently sold their place and their equipment.  There will still be a brewery in the space along Fifth Avenue, but it will have a new name and new beers.  Zauber was never anything special, but they executed a number of classic styles well, and I could walk to it from my old apartment.

#18 Homestead Beer Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

I typically find that the quality among beers within a brewery is relatively stable.  Yes, everyone has their stars and their duds, but there's generally a range of expected quality that I can expect from each place.  Homestead bucks this trend by being pretty disappointing save for a couple of pretty damn good beers.  3 MCs is a DIPA that balances the citrus and bitterness well and Snake Oil is a solid pale ale in a similar vein.  So I'll give them the half star bump based on a little bit of upside.  Their brewery is probably the most randomly located as it occupies a small space alongside a large Boeing plant south of Heath.

#17 Four String Brewing Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

I put Four String in the top ten last time largely because they make a lot of varieties (the taproom usually has about 15 things on tap) and do a pretty good job with most of them.  But in the age of ever increasing options, that's no longer as important as it once was.  A place with six or eight really good and/or unique things on tap is just more interesting now (see the next several entries on the list).  And even if you pared down Four String's offerings to the best half-dozen, I'm not sure they would stack up to the next few places on the list.  The Brass Knuckle pale ale is still pretty good, though.

#16 Loose Rail Brewing (link) - 1.5 Stars

There's an off chance I'm putting this a few spots too high because of the adorable old building that houses Loose Rail (click the link above for the background picture on their website).  That said, I had a nice variety of beers (stout, saison, and a couple IPAs) that were all quite competent.  The DIPA (Freight Hopper) was probably the best of the bunch, as a slightly sweet malt bomb that retained enough balance to make sense for the style.

#15 Barley's Brewing Company (link) - 1.5 Stars

This is the exact middle of the list, and I can't think of a brewery that fits the spot better.  Will you have anything groundbreaking at Barley's?  Probably not.  But, virtually every offering is well executed and distinct.  The continued existence of Barley's proves that an old brewery can learn new tricks while still staying true to itself.

#14 Combustion Brewery (link) - 2 Stars

The most promising of the new breweries, Combustion does a lot of things well.  First off, they have a large space which allows for both a place for bands to play and a kid's corner complete with a train table (this comes in handy now for some reason).  Most importantly, the beer is good in both quality and quantity.  The lighter options were all interesting, with a Citra session ale and a coffee-infused blonde ale being the highlights.  But the IPA* was the highlight.  A nice medium-bodied ale with a smoothness to the hop profile that has to be from Nelson hops (I think?), I would say that it's already a top-five IPA in the city.  I'm excited to see where they go from here.

*The IPA is just called "Combustion IPA."  Name your beers people! 

#13 Kindred Beer (link) - 2 Stars

I gave Kindred 1.5 stars last year, largely on the promise of their barreling program.  A couple months ago, this promise finally bore fruit, when they released their first two sour beers.  I had one of them (Spring Thaw), and was not disappointed.  The sourness was right down the middle - noticeably tart but not too dominant - which allowed for the faintest hint of the grapes to come through.  Yes, this first effort wasn't as polished as the places that have been doing this for years, but it's a very promising step towards something potentially special.

#12 Actual Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Actual doesn't have the same level of variety as other local brewers, but they make up for it with a nice regular offering of beers and occasional experimentation.  The three beers I've had from them since last year paint this picture for me.  Magnon, their regular IPA, is as solid and straightforward of an ale as you can make.  Galvani is a progressive experimental pale ale that changes the recipe each time (much like Seventh Son's Scientist).  And their special release from 2015 (Levitron - a barrel-aged sour stout) was a nicely balanced treat, although one with a slightly thin mouthfeel.  Also, their taproom adds a new room each time you visit, so that keeps you on your toes.

#11 Sideswipe Brewing (link) - 2 Stars

I have trouble rating Sideswipe properly, because even though I know it's imperfect, I still love it so.  Almost every beer in their portfolio has a deftly light touch that allows the drinker to easily understand exactly what the brewer was aiming for and why.  The DIPA Hop Tat and any of its varieties.  The Raspberry Berliner Weiss from their anniversary party.  Any of their beers infused with coffee.  There's a subtlety and a purpose to each one, which makes for a rewarding drinking experience.

#10 Ill Mannered Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Ill Mannered rotates through different brews often, so it gets points for always having something new to try.  Sometimes those beers are amazing (like the juicy red IPA MisRed or the Simcoe-soaked DIPA Palate Fatigue), and others less so (40th Pale-llel, which has that funky taste you sometimes get with Mosaic).  Still, most everything is good, so you will probably be happy if you get a sampler.  I also award them bonus points for being located a couple of blocks from downtown Powell, which has the best density of good restaurants in the metro.

#9 Lineage Brewing (link) - 2 Stars

If you take Ill Mannered, move it 15 miles south, and triple the size of the tap room, you have Lineage.  They rotate through a lot of different beers, some good and some less so, but the upside keeps you coming back.  The beers I've had recently (the New England-inspired pale ale Space Echo and the kettle sour Passionate Bernice were both appropriately juicy) have been consistently good, so it is possible there is even further upside here.

#8 Staas Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Places further down the list may have more upside, but there are none outside the top eight with the combination of variety and consistency that Staas displays.  A good deal of their menu is dedicated to well-done European styles, culminating in their bizarrely unique house ale (which uses the cask perfectly).  On the pale ale side, every offering highlights a different capability of the style: The Presidential is piney, The Baron is full of citrus, and The Pacer is half bready malts and half tropical hops.  I'm glad the Ale Trail forces me to venture up to Delaware once a year.

#7 Land Grant Brewing Company (link) - 2 Stars

Land Grant cans a bigger variety of beer than anyone else in Columbus (save #1 on the list, but they're a different story entirely).  That there are very few duds is a testament to Land Grant's high floor.  And occasionally we see their relatively high ceiling: Batch 300 was a delightfully juicy DIPA, Godspeed almost got me to like Black IPAs, and Stevesy showed how to make a good, subtle lager. They also colonized Franklinton before the inevitable gentrification, so props to them for that.

#6 North High Brewing Company (link) - 2.5 Stars

North High continues to have perhaps the highest floor in town, as I don't think I've ever had a bad beer from them.  And the last year has seen them top themselves with one of my favorite new local beers, the Bowie-themed DIPA Stardust to Stardust.  The regular offerings in cans (pale ale, IPA, milk stout) remain among the best readily available version of those beers in town. 

#5 Rockmill Brewery (link) - 2.5 Stars

Still executing classic Belgian styles better than anyone around, Rockmill stays in the top five.  They did add a few wrinkles this year, though.  First of all, the new tavern in the Brewery District is a wonderful place for brunch, and appears to have roughly the same level of variety that the farmhouse does.  Second, they added (at least it's new to me) a wonderful cherry sour that's a really nice counterpoint to their typically more funky offerings.

#4 Wolf's Ridge Brewing (link) - 3 Stars

So I bumped a fourth brewery up to the 3-star level this time.  Wolf's Ridge deserves it, as they continue to do the same things well (Driftwood is a great little IPA, the various Direwolves are all fantastic), while adding an extremely unique wrinkle: the Clear Sky line of cream ales.  Whether it be lemon meringue, cinnamon toast, or the best one "All the Breakfast," Wolf's Ridge manages to make actual good beer out of ideas that really shouldn't work as beer.  And when you're able to stand out on that many fronts, you get recognized for it.

#3 Seventh Son Brewing Company (link) - 3 Stars

Seventh Son has "stood still" a little more than the other breweries at the top of this list, but that doesn't mean they've fallen off.  Their main set of beers (the strong ale, Humulus Nimbus, and Proliferous) might still be the best group in town, while the more experimental side of things is never boring, at the very least.  I'm pretty pumped for the forthcoming expansion plans, as Columbus could use more places focusing on barreling and sours.

#2 Columbus Brewing Company (link) - 3 Stars

So they finally started bottling Bodhi.  And Creeper.  And Sohio Stout.  And Thunderlips.  And more.  CBC's always been at the pinnacle of brewing in Columbus, but there was a definite disconnect between the quality of their output and one's ability to easily produce their best beers.  With the expansion helping them to re-focus on their best beers, CBC leaps back to #2 on the list.

#1 Hoof Hearted Brewing (link) - 4 Stars

I could spend time picking at the imperfections with some of Hoof's beers, but that would be silly because Hoof is fantastic.  The NEIPAs steal the show, but there's also a lot of good work going on with the kettle sours and the dark stuff.  Most importantly, Hoof manages to surprise and to subvert expectations, even though those expectations are already sky high.  One notable way in which they do this is with their line of single-hop DIPAs.  The version for two of my favorite hops (Simcoe and El Dorado) were fine, but they paled in comparison to the Equinox version, which is a hop I had forgotten about until I started writing this blurb.  I can't wait to see what's in store as Hoof continues to expand and mature.

Bracket Thoughts 2017

This has been one of the most thoroughly predictable years of college hoops in recent memory.  Most of the top-ranked teams are ones that began the year that way.  Virtually everyone at bracket matrix predicted the participants of the tournament correctly, and most were pretty close on the seed lines as well.  Even the mid-major conferences did a good job sending their best teams to the tournament (more on this in a minute).  Which all means that the tournament itself will be probably be crazy and make no sense.  Can't wait.

A Few Words on Metrics

If you have a memory for such things, you may remember that 2015's bracket was one of the best ever produced, while 2016's was...not.  That this year's bracket was relatively well-constructed* isn't itself a sign that we've returned to the metrics-friendly ways of 2015.  Rather, this just happened to be a year where advanced stats, RPI, and the "eye test" all lined up absurdly well.  That said, what is promising is the NCAA's desire to overhaul the numbers side of their current selection process.  If the NCAA is genuine in its desire to replace the outdated RPI and all of its descendants**, then we should be able to eliminate a lot of the poor selections and orderings of previous brackets.

*Aside from criminal underseeding of Wichita and some weird ordering of the Big Ten teams, that is

**Virtually everyone that participates in the mock bracket exercise has said that straight-up RPI isn't used to evaluate teams, but similar things that are just as problematic (like record vs RPI top-50) are used, and those evaluations affect the proceedings just as much

In summation, most everyone agrees about the basic steps needed to improve the selection committee's toolbox.  Once that happens, a majority of the problems with the selection process will be fixed or significantly improved.  Even with perfect stats in hand, the philosophical debate of "best" vs "most deserving" will rage on, and continue to ultimately shape the decision process.  After the stats summit, analytics godfather Ken Pomeroy weighed in with a viewpoint that may surprise: He is firmly on the side of the deservers.  That said, he does make an important concession in his argument:

"I’d allow there could be a small role for predictive measures, though. A dominant team from a lesser conference is challenging to evaluate because it has fewer chances late in the season to pick up quality victories that their power-conference brethren."

While I certainly come down on the "best" side of the argument, the similarity between my views and Pomeroy's show that this isn't a binary dichotomy.  Rather, "best" and "most deserving" lie on a spectrum, with dozens of sub-opinions working to form each individuals' summary position.  In light of this, I wouldn't argue that everyone on the committee needs to have the same opinion on the matter.  Rather, I would ask that the members take the time to fully understand their positions, the positions of others, and the surprisingly common values that make up these views.  A diversity of opinions is often cited as a fundamental tenet of good teamwork, but that diversity doesn't work unless we examine and understand the true similarities and differences of one's worldview.  In summation, I hope the "best" vs "most deserving" argument never dies, and that the ongoing debate around it continues to foster a better and better process of bracket creation.


Mid-Major Report

As usual, I have summarized the carnage of championship fortnight below.  2017 was a good year for the teams with the best chance of Cinderellaing as 1) all of the very best mid-majors made it to the tournament, and 2) virtually every conference tourney winner was at least good relative to the strength of their conference.  The teams on the top seed lines are probably too good for a repeat of last year's high volume of first-round upsets, but the small schools did their part and should at least be pretty damn competitive - especially in the 5-12 and 4-13 matchups.

As always, I've only listed the mid-major conferences with either 1) legitimately good teams, or 2) one or two teams separated from the rest of the pack.  For example, I don't really care that the top seed didn't win the Summit tournament, because there was a big clump of teams in the 150-200 range that didn't do much to separate themselves.

With that complete, onto the brackets!


EAST

If you base your evaluations strictly on pre-season potential, you might see the East as the toughest region.  Villanova, Duke, Virginia, and Wisconsin were all seen as title contenders, and a few other teams weren't far behind.  And since the regions are incredibly balanced this year, I wouldn't blame you for looking at the last two champions on the top two lines and calling it a day.  That said, there's enough peculiarities and similarities to make me think this region could be more up for grabs than you might think.  For one, Duke and Villanova have the same set of weaknesses: bad rim protection (both teams are sub-top-100 in defensive block rate), poor defensive rebounding, and lack of depth.  Obviously, these teams compensate in other ways - Villanova might be the smartest offensive team I've ever seen and never commits fouls on defense, while Duke has probably the most raw talent in the field.  But if one of the lower seeds can exploit these weaknesses, that team might just be able to collect a big pair of wins and make it to Phoenix.

Best First-Round Matchup:  Virginia vs. UNC Wilmington

Virginia is probably the best 5-seed this year, so there's a chance they destroy everyone in their path for at least a couple of games.  That said, I really want to see how a great defense deals with the nation's top two-point shooter (79%!), Devontae Cacok.  The Seahawks are also great at holding onto the ball and rebounding their misses, so there's a chance they simply shoot the ball more than a struggling Virginia offense, which means anything can happen.  Wilmington is not particularly deep (not that many mid-majors are), but Virginia is so bad at drawing fouls that this might nullify that weakness.  I'll feel for Tony Bennett if is team has another disappointing March, but I also love chaos, so this is a coin flip for me.

Best Potential Matchup:  Duke vs. Marquette or Villanova vs. Virginia Tech*

A couple of the best three-point shooting teams up against the top teams in the bracket in the round of 32?  Yes, please.  My most reliably favorite tournament games tend to be round of 32 matchups involving top teams, and while this tournament is full of exciting possibilities in that realm, these might be the two best.

*Look at Jay Wright and then look at Buzz Williams and then contemplate that these men are both at the top of the same profession

The Pick for Phoenix:  Duke

I hate this pick, but I think Duke has enough offensive versatility to get through the slew of great defenses in front of them.  SMU and Virginia are the best under-the-radar options to put everything together and go on a run, but when in doubt, go with the preseason #1.


MIDWEST

This is the weirdest bracket of the year.  Kansas is probably the weakest one-seed, but they draw a few programs (ISU and Purdue) that have disappointed in previous years.  Oregon and Creighton are missing important pieces to their teams but have shown enough without them to earn some trust.  And the bottom quartet of the bracket is as strong as any.  Also, Tom Izzo is lurking around as a nine-seed with 14 losses.  Very, very bizarre.

Best First-Round Matchup:  Michigan vs. Oklahoma State

There legitimately might not be a better matchup of offenses in the whole tournament than this first-round game.  This oddity is partly on the committee for seeding these teams a scoche too low, but it's also on the generous defenses that let these teams down too often.  The Cowboys do have one defensive strength (forcing turnovers), but Derrick Walton's sure handedness should cancel that out.  What does swing my estimation slightly in favor of Oklahoma State is their ability to crash the offensive boards.  That said, either team can simply shoot their way to victory, so this should be a fun one.

Best Potential Matchup:  Kansas vs. Oregon

Virtually every bracket has multiple teams with awesome collections of guards and small forwards.  After all, it's 2017 and this is where basketball is now (thankfully).  But there might not be a better set of ball handlers, decision makers, and scorers than in this potential regional final.  The idea of Frank Mason, Josh Jackson, and Traveon Graham going up against Dillon Brooks, Dylan Ennis, and Tyler Dorsey is pure basketball porn.

The Pick for Phoenix:  Louisville

The weirdest bracket is also the hardest one to pick.  Kansas is probably the most vulnerable one-seed, but the top half of the bracket isn't the most challenging.  On the flip side, Louisville's going to have a tough road, but their defense is good enough to allow their feisty offense to stick around.  I will almost certainly change this pick a dozen times before Thursday.


SOUTH

UNC-Kentucky should be enough to convince you of this bracket's worthiness.  Which is good, because outside of a stupidly under-seeded Wichita team, this region underwhelms.  UCLA has a lot of the weaknesses (lack of depth, bad defense) that typically doom upstart teams.  Butler and Minnesota both have stronger resumes than actual team strength.  The matchup of Arkansas and Seton Hall is easily the weakest in an otherwise loaded slate of 8-9 games.  But none of that matters.  You have North Carolina and Kentucky and Gregg Marshall's unparalleled petulance and that's enough.

Best First-Round Matchup:  Minnesota vs. Middle Tennessee

Nothing in this region jumps off the page (although the KSU-Wake matchup in Dayton is pretty nice), so I'll take last year's Cinderella against a team that is nowhere near as good as the one they beat last year.  Minnesota's shot-blocking proficiency (3rd in the nation) isn't a great matchup for Blue Raider team that gets a lot of their points around the rim, but if MTSU can capitalize on their one main advantage (rebounding), that could make the difference. 

Best Potential Matchup:  UCLA vs. Wake Forest

Yeah, I could have picked Kentucky-Wichita (and probably should have).  But points are fun and this matchup would have all of them.  The UCLA crew rightfully gets a lot of love, but John Collins just might be a better college player than any of them.  Random note: I don't know if there is a better possible matchup of coaches in terms of how successful they were in college than Alford against Manning.

The Pick for Phoenix:  North Carolina

Go with chalk here and get cute elsewhere.  Yeah, UNC's guard depth isn't the best, but Justin Jackson has been amazing, and the team rebounds so well that it might not make a difference.  Add in a relatively easy draw, and I expect Roy Williams and friends to get back to the Final Four.  My love affair with De'Aaron Fox is almost enough to get me to swap in the Wildcats, but not quite.


WEST

Like every other region this year, the West has its pluses and its minuses.  Gonzaga is actually a very strong one-seed (1st in KenPom, 1st in LRMC, 2nd in BPI), and West Virginia is the best four-seed by far.  On the other hand, this bracket probably has the worst two, three, and six-seeds.  Add in a bizarro Notre Dame team* and a Saint Mary's team that could be awesome or terrible (I have no idea), and you have yourself what is almost certainly the most unpredictable bracket.

*There is no outcome in this region that would be unexpected for the Irish.  Win the whole damn thing?  Sure!  Give up 15 threes to Princeton and lose?  Why not!  They've won all of the games they should have won, and then played basically even with every other team and won about half of those.  Mike Brey knows entertainment, if nothing else.

Best First-Round Matchup:  Florida State vs. Florida Gulf Coast

Picking the dunkiest team to play a competitive game against the second-tallest team in the nation may seem counter-intuitive.  But the Noles are only pretty good at actually acting like a tall team (22nd in block rate and 232nd in defensive rebounding), so it's not as ridiculous as it sounds.  Realistically, I doubt FGCU has an answer for Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes, but who cares; There Will be Dunks.

Best Potential Matchup:  Gonzaga vs. West Virginia

This would almost certainly be the best Sweet Sixteen matchup in the tournament, as it could go any number of ways.  The "Press Virginia" mentality might overwhelm Gonzaga's backcourt, but the Zags' size advantage should play up in the half court offense.  Both teams have great depth, so foul trouble shouldn't be an issue.  If one player makes the difference, I'd be tempted to go with Jordan Mathews' gorgeous jumper.  But the potential for a Zach Collins breakout is what makes Gonzaga so intriguing and so dangerous.

The Pick for Phoenix:  Gonzaga

This pick is terrifying, but I'm sticking to my guns and doing it.  You can't stop me.


FINAL FOUR

It's tempting to pick an all-Tobacco Road finale, but I'll stick to chalk and say North Carolina over Gonzaga.  Deep frontcourts, skilled guards, great coaching, and relatively clear paths make for a easier pick than most years.

As for my dream bracket, it's quite simple: Notre Dame over Creighton.  Earlier in the year, I would have slightly preferred the Jays' simply beautiful brand of basketball, but without Mo Watson it's not quite the same.  I would love to send Vasturia and Beachem off with the best run in Notre Dame hoops history.  Let's hope it happens.